Top 201 to 300 Hitter Rankings with Comments

I ranked the top-200 non-catchers and top-50 catchers. Today, I rank hitters from 201 to 300. I don’t feel great about my ranking on the last 75 or so players. Small changes in playing time could push them up or down the rankings.

Notes:

• The rankings start with a weighted average of several available projections. From there, I moved hitters up or down based on my perceived playing time (PA) or talent (Talent)
• I had to pick one format to rank off of and I went with 5×5 Roto.
• I didn’t give any player a multi-position boost or DH hit with each hosting site having its own settings.
• Replacement level is not included since that value will change based on each league’s settings.

This list is beyond ugly after about the 225th guy. If a fantasy manager thinks a player should move up 50 spots based on a gut feeling, I won’t argue. Here are my thoughts on some guys

Joey Votto

No one has a clue what to expect from the 39-year-old who has averaged 110 games over the past two seasons. Rostering him comes down to the format for me. In leagues with no waiver wire (i.e. draft-and-holds, best balls), I’ll ignore him and add guys like Eric Hosmer (Ed. note: no Jeff, that’s a bad Jeff! #NeverHosmer). In leagues with a decent waiver wire (possibly not deep NL-only) he is worth rostering hoping for a return to 2021 when he hit .266/.375/.563 with 36 HR.

Nelson Cruz

After offseason eye surgery, Nelson Cruz has signed with the Padres. The 42-year-old struggled last season hitting .234/.313/.337 with just a .103 ISO. Like Votto, Cruz was great in 2021 (.265/.334/.497, 32 HR) and there is a slim chance for a rebound. If he repeats 2022, fantasy managers must be able to move on and let go of the name value.

Alex Kirilloff

I just don’t have any faith in him becoming a useful fantasy option but the projections and others disagree. He doesn’t have elite power. His 108.8 MaxEV is not even at the 50% percentile. He has a career 52% GB%. Everything leads to a .694 OPS. His hitting profile is similar to that of Jon Berti (109 maxEV, 53% GB%, .662 OPS) and Jake McCarthy (108 maxEV, 49% GB%, .769 OPS) but without the stolen bases.

Brendan Donovan

Donovan came out of nowhere last season and was playing slightly more than Tommy Edman (in September, 26 vs 25 games, 111 vs 100 PA) to end the season. Here is how both performed last season:

While Edman provides fantasy goodness, Donovan was the better real-life player. Because of Donovan’s near .400 OBP, he leadoff in 18 of the team’s last 25 regular season games. Donovan was leading off against righties since he didn’t have any split (.749 OPS vs LHP, .777 OPS vs RHP) while Edman struggles some against righties (.829 OPS vs LHP, .701 vs RHP).

I don’t think Donovan is a difference-maker with his stats besides being an accumulator. He seems to be a perfect bench bat to fill in for injuries with his triple eligibility (2B, 3B, OF) helping in all formats.

Isaac Paredes

A one-of-a-kind. Just take a look at his extreme lollipops and pulled batted balls.

Pulling the ball like that leads to 20 HR on 17 Barrels. He provided those home runs with good plate discipline (18% K%, 11% BB%). All of his struggles come down to a .195 BABIP leading to a .205 AVG. With a .250 BABIP, his batting average jumps to ~.240 and is more palatable.

I’d be pushing higher, but he plays for the platoon-happy Rays and is already showing signs of a platoon issue (.819 OPS vs LHP, .641 OPS vs LHP).

Kerry Carpenter (and other Detroit OF)

Besides Riley Greene, I have no idea how to value the Detroit outfielders since each shows some skills so their value will come down to playing time.

Carpenter showed decent power (6 HR in 113 PA) and a .252 AVG last season while mainly batting against right-handed pitching. While he might not be rostered at all times, he could be streamable, especially if he takes advantage of the new Comerica dimensions that do favor lefties a bit.

James Outman

Across three levels last season, Outman hit 32 HR and 13 SB with a near .300 AVG. And he plays outfield for the Dodgers who desperately need outfield help. Maybe Outman won’t play much for the MLB team but if he gets a full-time role, he becomes a must-roster in all formats for his five-category contributions.

Michael Massey

The Royals Michael Massey hit 4 HR last season. His xHR at home was 3 HR. In Cincinnati, the xHR total was 15 HR.

I can't imagine the hype behind and sub-200 PA player with 15 HR. Instead, Massey has an NFBC ADP after 400. pic.twitter.com/TXr0UrqZUn

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) December 9, 2022

Jarren Duran

The speedster (combined 18 SB in 2021, 25 SB in 2022) is, for now, penciled in as the starting center fielder for the Red Sox.

Bryce Harper

Being locked into the DH spot once (if) he returns mid-season puts a damper on his value. Harper’s value comes down to how many bench spots a fantasy team has and the replacement level player available. His value will be the highest in shallow leagues with several or unlimited IL spots. His valuation will be completely league dependent.

Rodolfo Castro

If the 24-year-old Castro gets near 600 PA, he will be near 20 HR and 10 SB with a .230 AVG while being multi-position eligible (2B, 3B, and possibly SS, 19 games). That’s basically the projected stat lines for Javier Baez (21 HR, 10 SB, .240 AVG) or Christopher Morel (20 HR, 13 SB, .234 AVG) who are at least going 100 picks earlier.

The issue is that Castro (proj .719 OPS) is set to lose playing time to Ji Hwan Bae (proj .725 OPS). Both have similar projections but Castro’s traits are more fantasy relevant.

Over the team’s final 53 games, Castro started in 49 of them while ending up in the heart of the batting order over the last couple of weeks. It’s not surprising since he hit .247/.310/.478 in the second half.

Kevin Newman

Here are Newman’s expected home runs at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.

While the doubling isn’t much, he could end up with 10 HR/10 SB with a .260 AVG in a full season of at-bats.

Jesús Sánchez

Sanchez probably overachieved in 2021 (.808 OPS) and underachieved last season (.682 OPS) and his career line of .221/.291/.423 with 27 HR and 1 SB in 623 PA is probably near his talent level. Projected comps are Eugenio Suárez (.211/.301/.405, 28 HR, 1 SB) and Rhys Hoskins (.232/.330/.450, 29 HR, 3 SB).

Sanchez might not hit that plate appearance total since he struggles against lefties (career .558 OPS vs LHP, .760 OPS vs RHP).

Nolan Jones

Jones is a little more interesting now that he’s on the Rockies. I don’t think he’s a must-add but keep track of his Spring Training usage to see if he’s in line to be a regular.

Evan Longoria

If the 37-year-old Longoria is healthy, he should be a positive fantasy contributor. The deal is that he hasn’t played more than 90 games in either of the past two seasons. In 597 PA during that time, he has hit form a combined .252/.333/.466 with 27 HR (comps would be C.J. Cron and Brandon Drury).

Simply start him when he’s healthy.

Jared Walsh

I have no desire to deal with Walsh this season. First, the 29-year-old is coming off Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. He has dealt with the problem for a while, so he might be better. He might not.

Additionally, he struggled last season while hitting just .215/.269/.374 with 15 HR in over 450 PA. Also, his plate discipline is garbage (6% BB%, 30% K%). On top of the injury and struggles last season, he remains incapable of hitting lefties (career .600 OPS vs LHP, .823 OPS vs RHP).

Finally, the Angels added several players this offseason who could play a passable first base.

Name: Projected OPS
Walsh: .746
Urshela: .711
Drury: .729
Rendon: .779

Walsh’s projection is fine, but if he begins to struggle, someone else could step in.

Brice Turang

We rank the 23-year-old prospect as the second best on the Brewers and after 603 PA in AAA last season, he should be ready for the majors. His red flag at the moment is a lack of power. We grade his game power at 30/35. Baseball America and MLB.com have power at 40 grade. Baseball America wrote that he had a 110 mph maxEV. The three closest qualified comps to that MaxEV from the 2022 season are Jeff McNeil, Elvis Andrus, and Andrés Giménez.

Of the hitters with at least 163 PA in AAA (only International League), his .126 ISO ranked 80th of 100. Our projections have him producing with a .109 to .123 ISO (comps from 2022 are Jonathan Schoop, Amed Rosario, Josh Rojas). While he may grow into some power, there is none right now.

Now the positives. He had great plate discipline with an 11% BB% and 20% K% in AAA. Additionally, the three prospect sources (FG, MLB, BA) have him with a speed score between 55 and 60. Last season in AAA, he stole 34 bases while only being caught twice.

The overall profile reminds of me of players like Myles Straw, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Josh Rojas.

Previous ranking articles with notes:

• Top-100 Hitters (December 7th)
• Top-200 Hitters (December 13th)
• Top-50 Catcher Ranks (December 19th)