Tipping Pitches: Sonny Gray & Jose Berrios Surging

Sonny Gray | 3.34 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 23% K, and 7% BB in 29.7 IP

Gray has only made five starts, but he’s looking as sharp as ever. He missed all of April, but he certainly looks health right now. His velocity is at a career-best 93.4 mph (94 w/the four-seamer; 93 w/the sinker). Here’s what else I’ve seen in the stats and video of his last two starts:

• He’s using the sinker more than ever and working both fastball iterations down in the zone at a career-high clip, too.
• His fastballs are down in the lower third of the zone 52% of the time and they are fueling a career-best 59% groundball rate.
• The slider has always been a weapon, but it’s been a plus-plus monster and generated 9 of his 11 strikeouts on Wednesday.

• His 63% first-pitch strike rate is a career-best and aiding a 6.7% walk rate, also a career-best.
• He’s generating a career-high 32% O-Swing rate without lowering his Zone percentage.
• All of his secondary stuff is clicking.
• His 21% swinging strike rate with the changeup is 12th-highest in May (min. 60 thrown).
• His 16% swinging strike rate with the curveball is 11th-highest in May (min. 80 thrown).
• The slider took a couple starts to get going, but as I mentioned earlier, it’s been fantastic of late.
• Slider swinging strike rates by start: 0%, 0%, 17%, 36%, and 33%.
• He only threw 25 in those first three starts combined and then 27 just in that last outing.

Here are the highlights of him cutting up Boston two starts ago:

I feel like a lot of folks will be looking to sell high on Gray and I might be right there to scoop him up. Even a buy-high price shouldn’t be crazy so if I need pitching, I’m in. He is looking healthy, has made changes, and carries a legitimate track record of success. The recent swing-and-miss isn’t necessary for continued success, either, with the gaudy groundball rate having been a staple in the previous successful seasons.

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Jose Berrios | 1.66 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 28% K, and 5% BB in 21.7 IP

Berrios is one of baseball’s best pitching prospects and has started to show it at the big league level. He labored through an ugly 58.3 IP last year with virtually nothing going right (the 8.02 ERA and 1.87 WHIP tell the story as the skills weren’t there and the poor results followed) across 14 starts. He’s been electric in three starts and looks nothing like the young arm who struggled so much last year. Here’s what I’m seeing:

• All three pitches are markedly better, but the fastball is the key, of course. The high fastball has been particularly important and led to a .259 OPS, 35% K in 20 PA on the pitch. High fastballs have ended 25% of his PA this year.
• The curveball has been straight filth. He’s gotten 10 strikeouts with it in 21 PA. He has hung a couple for homers in his outing at Baltimore, but it’s a true out pitch right now:

Amazing pitch sequence yesterday from Jose Berrios to Mark Trumbo. pic.twitter.com/NlgvEIcCrN

— Nick Hamelin (@NickHamelin) May 26, 2017

• He’s using the changeup a lot less at 7%, but he hasn’t really needed it thus far so it’s not a concern (14% last year).
• A little cold water: only the Colorado decimation featured a big swinging strike rate (18%), but he induced a lot of weak contact in the Cleveland (6.7% SwStr) and Baltimore (7.4%) outings.

It’s no surprise that Colorado on the road was his best start, but he more than held his own in two tough settings at Cleveland and Baltimore. He’s probably being a little overrated right now with a standout start and because we’ve been excited for him to emerge, so I wouldn’t be against shopping him for a big payoff. I’ve always been a huge fan so I’m confident in him long-term, but he’s not a finished product after three starts, so be realistic about expectations.

I want to see continued use of the high fastball, more command of that wicked curve (easier said than done, I know), and more changeup use to keep hitters off balance that second and third time through. I feel like he’s someone we’ll check on regularly throughout the season.