Three Pitchers Who Won’t @#$%ing Adjust
Sometimes, I grow weary of writing introductions. The title is pretty self explanatory. If you need more time to mentally prepare yourself for analysis, here’s a short thread about my knuckleball and Vicente Padilla’s slickball. Ok, let’s go.
Throw More Sliders!!!
Check out this generic pitcher’s slider. He is perhaps one of the most consistently league average pitchers in baseball. I recently selected him as the 738th player taken in my 20-team dynasty league. He’ll also be selected in some of your much shallower formats. Point being, he’s not a highly sought after asset.
| Year | Innings | SL Usage | SwStr% | AVG | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 214.1 | 10.93% | 23.24% | 0.101 | 0.193 |
| 2015 | 192 | 9.84% | 17.84% | 0.138 | 0.213 |
| 2016 | 176.2 | 9.11% | 23.24% | 0.171 | 0.250 |
| 2017 | 186 | 13.07% | 21.91% | 0.173 | 0.250 |
That’s a no-joke elite slider. It’s possible that the pitch plays up because it’s infrequently used, but it’s still a travesty that this isn’t used at least 25 percent of the time. In any given year, the slider is this guy’s third or fourth most frequent pitch. His repertoire consists of a sinker (career usage: 43.58%), cutter (23.54%), slider (11.32%), change (9.79%), and curve (9.41%). You can consider the three offspeed pitches as used in equal measure.
Think you know who this is? I’ll let you guess in the comments.
Here’s a gimme hint. In five starts after he was traded last season, his cutter rate nearly halved from about 25 to 14 percent. His sliders increased from 12 to 16 percent. His other offspeed offerings also increased about five percentage points. He recorded a 2.53 ERA, 7.59 K/9, and 0.56 BB/9 over that span. I’m not saying he’ll continue that success or usage, but I sure hope he does. I’ve been begging him to throw 20 percent sliders for years.
Your Fastballs Suck
This is a tough one. What do you do with a formerly elite pitcher who still has two superb offspeed pitches but no fastball. Half of Felix Hernandez’s offerings last season were either a fourseam or sinker. Both performed terribly, a continuation of recent trends. His offspeed pitches remain potent.

Nobody whiffs his sinker – 2.77 percent swinging strike rate. The straighter version is scarcely better at a 6.69 percent swinging strike rate. The changeup (17.98% SwStr%) and curve (13.49% SwStr%) are still useful. The slider is merely adequate despite lovely results.
Obviously, the changeup is a big part of King Felix’s repertoire. And from the outside, it’s hard to know if he needs that sinker to make the changeup perform like it does. I think he should at least try to see how things work without the poorly performing sinker. Perhaps try cutting down to 30 percent fastballs. Just for a few starts. See what happens.
Some ephemera: Carlos Carrasco is coming off an ace-quality season while basically working with the same repertoire and terrible fastball pairing. Carraco’s curve and slider are much better than Hernandez’s. His change up is on-par. Perhaps Felix ought to focus on getting a little more life out of the offspeed stuff.
Stop Throwing SINKERS
Jordan Montgomery throws five pitches. Four of them are seriously good. He has a Rich Hill-like high fastball – hammer curve combo. He can also mix in an above average slider and changeup. One offering really doesn’t belong – his sinker. Not only is it a terrible pitch, it doesn’t even make sense with the rest of his repertoire.
Exhibit A.

Exhibit B

The sinker doesn’t generate many grounders. What’s the point? If Monty would just retire the pitch, we’re probably looking at an instant jump above 9.00 K/9 while maintaining his sub-4.00 ERA.
He mainly leans on the sinker early in the count against opposite-handed batters. This is a weird adaptation since sinkers often have big platoon splits. He obviously doesn’t think he can throw his fourseamer to righties. Perhaps he knows best, but this isn’t working. You know, I hear good things about the Vicente Padilla slickball.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Mike Leake!
My first thought as well, has to be him.
yup it has to be him
bingo
It’s Seattle’s new ace and Seattle’s old ace together in the same article.
Really liked the article, Brad! Thanks! (I’m still not rostering Mike Leake anywhere : )
The most recent example I can think of a pitcher actually adjusting his pitch arsenal like you are suggesting is Trevor Bauer cutting down on his cutter usage and employing his slider more. Just curious, do you see him continuing his numbers from the second half, or it was just a fluke?
From what he was saying on twitter, sounds like he’s already changed his pitch mix. He’s always changing his pitch mix.
So many relievers have adjusted by going to 50%+ breaking balls. Starters don’t make these adjustments as often.
I know it’s the easy/lazy thing to say, but you should expect similar numbers to his whole-year stats from last year.
Hear me out.
His first-half numbers: 10.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.36 HR/9, .336 BABIP.
Second-half numbers: 10.00 K/9, 2.80 BB/9, 1.18 HR/9, .338 BABIP.
He did have slightly fewer walks and home runs in the second half, but his flyball rate stayed consistent.
There were two big changes, one out of his control and one in his control:
1) His LOB% in the first half was an abysmal 67.9%. That soared to 87.1% in the second half. Neither is likely to continue, and he’ll probably settle in around 74% next year.
2) He did cut his Hard% from 37% to 30%. That’s significant, and may explain some of the cut in home runs. I’m not entirely sure the new pitch mix entirely explains it, though.
The point is, he wasn’t a ton better in the second half. He was a little better and went from terrible luck to extremely good luck (that 87% LOB would have been 2nd in the league if it was the whole year).
Now, I do think there is some potential improvement in his BABIP, given the decrease in Hard hit balls against him. And his home-run rate has bounced around a lot in his career. He could easily take a Robbie-Ray-sized step forward in BABIP this year and become a low 3 ERA pitcher. I just wouldn’t expect it. And I wouldn’t expect his 3.01 second-half ERA, since the underlying stats don’t support it.
I do expect him to be closer to a 3.75 ERA guy if the BABIP normalizes. He had a 10% IFFB rate last year, which was 18th among qualifiers, so with that and the hard percentage dropping (and a great infield defense behind him), there is no reason for it to be so high.