Three Hours of Baseball – Opening Day
I’ve been considering this article’s concept for a while and am going to try it out for a couple of weeks and see if it is useful. I’ll spend three hours catching an hour of three different games and writing my thoughts and diving into deeper into areas of fantasy interest. Here is take #1 and let me know your thoughts.
Orioles at Yankees
- It was an easy choice for taking this game. Scherzer versus deGrom sounded like a 1-0 game with the Mets bullpen letting deGrom down (I was close but wrong).
- The top of the Orioles lineup could steal a few bases nothing to play for and Cedric Mullins, Dwight Smith Jr., and Jonathan Villar as those first three. I had to examine Smith and determined why I didn’t know more about him. He’s kind of boring with a projection near 10 homers, 10 steals, and a .240 average. Maybe it will be just Mullins and Villar stealing bases.
- Like it’s going to matter but Andrew Cashner’s velocity was up a tick.
- Luke Voit with a bomb (113 mph) to straightaway center. His power is legit and needs to be in the Yankees lineup every day.
- Additionally, Luke Voit possesses some 80-grade hair.
Luke Voit is amazing and so is his hair. pic.twitter.com/eJUuWKW6yc
— Gino Zarrillo (@GinoZarrillo) March 28, 2019
- Masahiro Tanaka looked great by striking out the side in the second.
Cardinals at Brewers
- Jhoulys Chacin threw the kitchen sink with a fastball averaging 90 mph. His slider is devastating but the rest of the pitches are blah at best. I could see him dominate some teams while teams own him. Or it could be from inning-to-inning like this game. He rolled through the first batters he faced and then gave up double dongs to Wong and Bader.
- Miles Mikolas’s fastball may be a down a tick compared to last season but his breaking balls were great.
Protect the 'stache pic.twitter.com/Czxu0sT41T
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) March 28, 2019
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- Announcers mentioning 125 games for Braun.
- Kolten Wong and Harrison Bader with a couple of no doubt homers against Chacin in the second.
- Miller Park is a launching pad. Four home runs in the first three innings.
Braves at Phillies
- Aaron Nola throwing 95 mph in the first inning after averaging 92.3 mph last season. Historically, he has never been around 95 mph at all but here is his swinging-strike rate at other velocities. Congrats to all those who drafted him this offseason.
MPH: SwStr%
91: 4.5%
92: 5.1%
93: 8.1:
94: 11.7%
- Julio Tehran is pitching out of the stretch with a 92-mph fastball which is up for him. His breaking stuff is still his bread-and-butter and he was effective. He might be a useful streamer instead of a steaming pile of ….
- Ronald Acuna showed off his legs in the second inning with a stolen base and scoring from second on a shallow single.
- This game was about as boring as it gets but that happens when there is a pitching duel.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Nola gave up 5 walks in 6 IPs today. I noticed he was walking more in ST this year too. Given his pinpoint control in the past, I can’t help but wonder if he is selling out for velocity.
Baseball Savant shows Nola throwing 52 four-seamers today with an average velocity of … 92.3 mph. So, that might not be it.
DODGERS 8 HOMERS
Perhaps they shall contend after all!
Jeff: I like this topic and will read it every time.
I like the article concept. Please keep them coming!
Posted on Sheryl Ring’s article regarding Mesoraco and the Mets’ “verbal” agreement: love these kinds of articles on FanGraphs. We all know about Mondesi’s upside and how great Harper and Machado should be. Nola’s velocity being up – and DDD discussing how maybe he’s selling out for velocity by giving up some control? Thoughts on Dwight Smith Jr.? Smaller nuances of individual games is something different, actually interesting, and is something I will read instead of just skimming.
I love this concept and enjoyed the first edition. There were a few awkward sentences, but after a quick reread, I knew what you meant.
Please keep this this type of piece going. I love to hear you input regarding actual baseball play. Interpolation of various statistics is always more than welcome from this reader, but this alternate perspective of baseball focused on specific play is great as well.
Thanks!
KEEP THIS ARTICLE GOING……this is great
Seconded!
I agree this is a cool concept. Thanks for the observations, Jeff . . .