Three Early Waiver Wire Targets

We’re two days into the season and we’ve yet to have a day where every team plays so needless to say that waiver wire recommendations aren’t exactly overflowing right now. On the one hand, I generally like to practice patience early on when it comes to the waiver wire. After all, I drafted these players for a reason so I’d like to give them some time. On the other hand, April is a great time to pick up waiver wire guys because if they click, you’re getting virtually a full season of work.

I think too often people get caught up in “waiting for someone better” with their FAAB or waiver priority. If an available player fulfills a need or can improve your team, then invest. Always expecting something better to come down the pike is dangerous. A lot of people have turned their nose up at Jason Grilli, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up as one of the best closers available all year. We don’t know who might be this year’s J.D. Martinez, but I’ve got a handful of hitters to consider early on.

The barrier for entry is usually around 30% ownership or lower at CBS. I use CBS because they generally cater to deeper leagues, so if someone is only 30% owned at CBS, there’s a good chance they’re even more widely available at Yahoo! and ESPN. In fact, the most-owned guy we will look at today is 25% at CBS, 10% at Yahoo!, and 2% over at ESPN.

Luis Valbuena 2B/3B, HOU (C 25%, Y! 10%, E 2%) – I realize I just got done recommending Valbuena in my platoon player piece, but I’m back talking about him again because while we knew he’d be someone the Astros used as a strong-side platoon option, we didn’t know they’d be batting him third as they did on Opening Day. It was just his 12^th start batting third, his lowest total at any spot in the order. If this is something they are looking to do regularly against righties, Valbuena jumps another level in terms of desirability. Batting that high will offset the platooning a bit when it comes to his counting categories.

So yes, a big part of the doubling down on this recommendation comes from one lineup, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the norm against righties. At the very least, it looks like they are ready to have him in the heart of the order against right-handers, so even if it’s not third, it could fourth or fifth. I don’t usually get so giddy about 29-year old platoon guys with one season of 500+ PA, but I’ve found myself more and more interested in Valbuena as draft season evolved into the season opener. That ballpark and a solid lineup (Valbuena had Altuve/Springer in front of him and Gattis/Carter behind him) will yield even bigger numbers than ’14 (68 R, 16 HR, 51 RBIs).

Jake Lamb 3B, ARI (C 20%, Y! 11%, E 3%) – As Yasmany Tomas’ stock plummeted this spring, Lamb’s rose thanks to some exciting power potential and the chance at some playing time. He couldn’t draw the Opening Day nod as the Giants threw some unknown lefty, but Lamb made his presence felt off the bench with a huge three-run double off of Sergio Romo. And then getting start against a righty on Tuesday, he yakked a three-run bomb off of Ryan Vogelsong to tie the game in the fifth. The prodigious power is the calling card and on display early for the 24-year old.

He appears to have a handle on the strong side of the platoon and while he hit sixth on Tuesday, he could feasibly move up in the lineup if he continues to perform. David Peralta was the hitting fourth in the lineup on Tuesday and while I think he’s pretty solid as a player overall, Lamb’s power plays much better in that spot. As with many young power bats, Lamb has some swing and miss in his game, but we’ll gladly trade some AVG for 20-HR upside.

Brandon Crawford, SS SF (C 15%, Y! 13%, E 5%) – Crawford has shown some growth year-to-year as his defense has earned him the steady playing time to learn on the job. It hasn’t yielded a ton of fantasy value just yet, but a late-20s surge may be on the horizon. Crawford had his first double-digit dollar value last year at $11 and more power could be coming. His batted ball profile shifted drastically last year as he saw a 10 percentage point increase in flyball rate, up to 42%.

It only netted one extra home run from 2013 (up to 10), but if he can continue the flyball rate while also pushing his HR/FB rate up toward league average (9.5%), then 15 HRs are in reach. This season will also be interesting as we will see how much of his gains against lefties he is able to hang onto. He was a bit below average in 2012 (.631 OPS), downright wretched in 2013 (.546), and then baseball’s third-best lefty-lefty hitter in 2014 (.879, min. 100 PA). Shortstop is always a tough place in the fantasy game, especially if you get an in-season injury, but Crawford offers some relief along with a bit of untapped potential.