Three Appearance Fastball Velocity Risers and Fallers: May 16, 2023
by Lucas Kelly
May 16, 2023
Welcome to the first automated installment of fastball velocity risers and fallers. For reference, here are a few articles that explain both the process and the importance of increased or decreased velocity when predicting future success:
- Using Game-By-Game Fastball Velocity to Influence SP Sit/Start Decisions by Lucas Kelly
- MLB pitching models should incorporate recency, giving us an intriguing ranks update by Eno Sarris
- Baseball’s ‘Hot Hand’ Is Real by Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews
This article won’t take the place of my weekly RotoGraphs article and will not have much analysis. Instead, it will only provide data tables for your own analysis.
Relievers
Relievers only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days. Though the time range is 25 days, the calculation only includes the three most recent appearances. In addition, I have isolated the table to relievers who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease).
Reliever Three Appearance Fallers
| Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | 96.3 | 95.0 | 93.4 | -1.63 | -1.22 | -1.43 |
| Bryse Wilson | 94.9 | 94.3 | 92.4 | -1.90 | -0.59 | -1.24 |
| Félix Bautista | 99.8 | 99.4 | 97.7 | -1.67 | -0.39 | -1.03 |
| Brent Honeywell | 95.5 | 95.2 | 93.8 | -1.40 | -0.30 | -0.85 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. | 93.9 | 93.7 | 92.3 | -1.36 | -0.24 | -0.80 |
| Andre Pallante | 96.6 | 95.5 | 95.0 | -0.52 | -1.04 | -0.78 |
| Pete Fairbanks | 97.7 | 97.4 | 96.2 | -1.20 | -0.34 | -0.77 |
| Keegan Thompson | 93.8 | 93.7 | 92.3 | -1.37 | -0.06 | -0.72 |
| Austin Pruitt | 92.1 | 91.9 | 90.7 | -1.28 | -0.15 | -0.72 |
| Dylan Floro | 93.0 | 92.7 | 91.6 | -1.12 | -0.26 | -0.69 |
| Dinelson Lamet | 95.3 | 94.5 | 94.0 | -0.50 | -0.80 | -0.65 |
| Jordan Hicks | 101.8 | 101.5 | 100.5 | -0.97 | -0.28 | -0.62 |
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= -.60 Average Change
**>= -.60 Average Change
Reliever Three Appearance Risers
| Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | 95.6 | 98.3 | 99.0 | 0.70 | 2.72 | 1.71 |
| Erik Swanson | 92.4 | 92.6 | 94.6 | 2.00 | 0.18 | 1.09 |
| Jason Adam | 92.4 | 93.1 | 94.3 | 1.23 | 0.65 | 0.94 |
| Tyler Rogers | 82.2 | 82.4 | 84.0 | 1.57 | 0.27 | 0.92 |
| Anthony Banda | 93.0 | 93.1 | 94.9 | 1.73 | 0.08 | 0.90 |
| Ryan Thompson | 90.9 | 91.0 | 92.6 | 1.65 | 0.05 | 0.85 |
| Brock Stewart | 95.6 | 96.1 | 97.2 | 1.12 | 0.51 | 0.82 |
| Anthony Bass | 93.7 | 94.9 | 95.3 | 0.35 | 1.20 | 0.77 |
| Reiver Sanmartin | 89.5 | 90.9 | 91.0 | 0.10 | 1.38 | 0.74 |
| Nick Anderson | 93.0 | 94.0 | 94.5 | 0.51 | 0.95 | 0.73 |
| Jhoan Duran | 100.5 | 101.2 | 101.8 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| Richard Bleier | 87.9 | 89.0 | 89.3 | 0.28 | 1.03 | 0.66 |
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= .60 Average Change
**>= .60 Average Change
Starters
Starters only qualify to be placed in the table below if they have three appearances in the last 25 days and threw in at least the first inning in each of those appearances. The 25-day range should be wide enough to include three consecutive starts, but I may alter that time period in the future. Like in the above relievers table, I have isolated the table to starters who have displayed an average change of .60 or greater in either direction (increase vs. decrease). One final note, I do not remove pitchers who were recently injured. I think it’s advantageous to see how a pitcher’s velocity changed prior to injury. In today’s post, Drew Rasmussen is a good example.
Starter Three Appearance Fallers
| Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Woodford | 94.3 | 92.0 | 90.7 | -1.30 | -2.27 | -1.78 |
| Michael Kopech | 96.5 | 95.3 | 94.3 | -1.05 | -1.22 | -1.13 |
| Tyler Anderson | 91.2 | 89.9 | 89.3 | -0.58 | -1.32 | -0.95 |
| Colin Rea | 94.1 | 92.6 | 92.5 | -0.07 | -1.48 | -0.77 |
| Joe Musgrove | 94.6 | 93.6 | 93.2 | -0.47 | -0.93 | -0.70 |
| Jack Flaherty | 93.4 | 92.2 | 92.1 | -0.10 | -1.28 | -0.69 |
| Taijuan Walker | 94.2 | 93.4 | 92.8 | -0.57 | -0.78 | -0.68 |
| Miles Mikolas | 93.9 | 93.3 | 92.6 | -0.76 | -0.54 | -0.65 |
| Tanner Houck | 94.6 | 93.8 | 93.4 | -0.35 | -0.85 | -0.60 |
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= -.60 Average Change
**>= -.60 Average Change
Starter Three Appearance Risers
| Name | Third recent | Second recent | Most recent | Most recent increase | Second recent increase | Avg Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Lyles | 89.3 | 90.8 | 92.1 | 1.29 | 1.53 | 1.41 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | 94.6 | 95.4 | 97.4 | 2.01 | 0.75 | 1.38 |
| Tony Gonsolin | 91.5 | 93.2 | 93.6 | 0.40 | 1.67 | 1.03 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 90.9 | 91.6 | 92.9 | 1.34 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Nestor Cortes | 90.8 | 91.9 | 92.8 | 0.87 | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| Julio Urías | 92.7 | 93.4 | 94.7 | 1.29 | 0.67 | 0.98 |
| Kyle Freeland | 88.6 | 89.4 | 90.5 | 1.07 | 0.83 | 0.95 |
| Edward Cabrera | 95.5 | 96.1 | 97.3 | 1.21 | 0.59 | 0.90 |
| Dean Kremer | 94.3 | 94.3 | 95.9 | 1.56 | 0.07 | 0.82 |
| Kyle Gibson | 91.5 | 91.8 | 93.1 | 1.32 | 0.31 | 0.81 |
| Mitch Keller | 94.6 | 95.4 | 96.2 | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| Merrill Kelly 켈리 | 91.6 | 92.6 | 93.1 | 0.48 | 0.96 | 0.72 |
| Dylan Cease | 95.1 | 95.8 | 96.4 | 0.56 | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| Justin Steele | 91.2 | 92.2 | 92.5 | 0.33 | 0.99 | 0.66 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 95.1 | 95.3 | 96.4 | 1.11 | 0.17 | 0.64 |
| Shane McClanahan | 96.2 | 96.8 | 97.5 | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| Tyler Wells | 92.2 | 92.2 | 93.4 | 1.25 | 0.01 | 0.63 |
| Griffin Canning | 94.1 | 94.2 | 95.3 | 1.16 | 0.10 | 0.63 |
* Among all starting pitchers with three appearances in the last 25 days.
**>= .60 Average Change
**>= .60 Average Change
Grayson got shelled once again, so obviously velocity is not the end-all-be-all.
I just happened to be watching the extra innings in the Twins-Dodgers game last night (Monday), and Eric Karros was on commentary while Phil Bickford was mowing the Twins down for three innings (once he found the zone). Bickford does not have top-end velo. But he was hitting his spots, and commanding the fastball in top of the zone (and just above). Karros was like, “if it’s location vs. velocity, give me location all day long.” Not sure I even agree with this fully, but just passing along what I heard.
Pitchers have been saying that since the game was invented 150 years ago. It’s the reason guys like Rich Hill and Greinke are still getting guys out throwing 89. They might not be as good as they were when they threw 92+, but they can still put it where they want often enough to be productive major league starters. Kyle Hendricks damn near won a CY throwing 89. In 2008 Jamie Moyer threw 196 IP with a 3.71 ERA with an 81 mph fastball.
a margin of error situation. Low velo gotta keep it tight. High velo has forgiveness.
High velo’s easier to yank out of the ballpark, too. MLB hitters aren’t the least bit intimidated by 94-100+ MPH.
Greg Maddux won multiple Cy Youngs throwing high 80s cheese with perfect location and calculated movement.