Thoughts On Early Hitting ADP

by
November 9, 2022

2023 Drafts are now in full force over at the National Fantasy Baseball Contest, which has become an industry leader in terms of research for average draft position (ADP) data. NFBC ADP is especially useful because it involves only paid contests and many of the top players in the world play on the platform. As of now, there have been 16 completed drafts on the site with many more being done as we speak. Most of these drafts are 15-team draft champions leagues which are 50-round draft and hold formats. After completing one of those drafts myself recently and looking at the ADP, here are some of my thoughts on how the early ADP is shaping up.

Catchers
The catching pool is about as deep as it has ever been. There are a ton of breakout guys from last season like Dalton Varsho, Adley Rutschman, Alejandro Kirk, MJ Melendez, and Willson Contreras to go along with established studs like J.T. Realmuto, Sal Perez, and Will Smith. What this means is if you play in any one catcher format, there is no reason to pay up at the position. There are easily 12 very good catchers and a number of passable one-catcher format guys that you can rotate in and out of your lineup. If you are in a two-catcher league, I think you still want at least one good one, but there are a lot more options available than in year’s past which means punting the catcher position may not mean you are rostering a truly terrible offensive player. My preferred strategy so far this draft season has been to grab one of the top 10 and then wait a bit before addressing the position again, but the depth at the historically shallow position gives you a lot of options in 2023.

Catcher ADP: 11/9/2022
Rk Player Team Position(s) ADP / AAV Min Max
1 J.T. Realmuto PHI C 40.13 18 54
2 Will Smith LAD C 57.63 43 69
3 Daulton Varsho ARZ C, OF 59.38 37 92
4 Salvador Perez KC C 65.13 43 87
5 Adley Rutschman BAL C 72 53 107
6 Willson Contreras CHC C 104 78 123
7 Alejandro Kirk TOR C 107.56 83 148
8 MJ Melendez KC C, OF 115.88 95 135
9 Tyler Stephenson CIN C 137.81 105 192
10 William Contreras ATL C 150.44 107 194
11 Sean Murphy OAK C 164.19 138 219
12 Cal Raleigh SEA C 172.06 128 222
13 Travis d’Arnaud ATL C 197.06 121 230
14 Keibert Ruiz WAS C 203.13 152 256
15 Danny Jansen TOR C 226.63 163 285
16 Yasmani Grandal CWS C 247.88 203 302
17 Christian Vazquez HOU C 277.56 195 363
18 Jonah Heim TEX C 290.06 219 362
19 Logan O’Hoppe LAA C 303.88 184 377
20 Gabriel Moreno TOR C 304.25 238 374
21 Eric Haase DET C 324.13 267 377
22 Gary Sanchez MIN C 334.63 298 410
23 Elias Diaz COL C 335.38 287 426
24 Bo Naylor CLE C 345 263 419
25 Joey Bart SF C 346.31 296 467
26 Carson Kelly ARZ C 358.5 287 506
27 Nick Fortes MIA C 367.56 289 439
28 Christian Bethancourt 베탄코트 TB C, 1B 397.5 328 474
29 Austin Nola SD C 399.44 352 474
30 Jose Trevino NYY C 408.44 311 484
31 Francisco Mejia TB C 428.31 331 512
32 Yan Gomes CHC C 438.63 351 522
33 Omar Narvaez MLW C 438.75 326 554
34 Endy Rodriguez FA C 447.88 374 598
35 Ryan Jeffers MIN C 476.44 388 563
36 Jorge Alfaro SD C 489.19 409 577
37 Luis Campusano SD C 496.31 435 605
38 Max Stassi LAA C 510.94 374 596
39 Reese McGuire BOS C 532.5 381 690
40 Mike Zunino TB C 562.44 407 742
41 Sam Huff TEX C 569.75 485 674
42 James McCann NYM C 585.38 470 680
43 Jacob Stallings MIA C 589.13 519 687
44 Kyle Higashioka NYY C 623.75 491 684
45 Martin Maldonado HOU C 632.31 499 725
46 Ivan Herrera STL C 640.81 440 733
47 Andrew Knizner STL C 660.19 527 739
48 Victor Caratini MLW C 667.31 529 734
49 P.J. Higgins CHC C, 1B 676.13 410 709
50 Austin Wells FA C 683.38 560 733
51 Austin Barnes LAD C 688.69 532 745
52 Tucker Barnhart DET C 709.31 573 740
53 Diego Cartaya LAD C 711 559 695
54 Seby Zavala CWS C 711.63 462 676
55 Connor Wong BOS C 714.81 552 750
56 Matt Thaiss LAA C 720.06 566 747
57 Roberto Perez PIT C 721.94 614 739
58 Korey Lee HOU C 723.88 512 715
59 Luis Torrens SEA C 727.13 617 710
60 Pedro Severino MLW C 728.69 595 689
61 Austin Hedges CLE C 728.94 541 685
62 Kevin Plawecki TEX C 731.63 594 727
63 Tom Murphy SEA C 733.63 593 741
64 Garrett Stubbs PHI C 735.81 620 747
65 Mario Feliciano MLW C 739.56 695 735
66 Riley Adams WAS C 740.94 609 732
67 Tomas Nido NYM C 741.19 645 740
68 Manny Pina ATL C 741.75 623 731
69 Yadier Molina STL C 745.63 668 748
70 Brian Serven COL C 746.94 689 748
71 Carlos Perez CWS C 748.63 713 713
72 Zack Collins PIT C 749.69 730 730
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
NFBC positional eligibility is based on 20 games played in the previous season

 

Outfielders
Outfield is really ugly. On top of it just being much more shallow than in recent years, 13 of the top 70 outfielders are also eligible at other positions which mean they are more likely to be swooped up to play elsewhere by others.

Outfield ADP: 11/9/2022
Rk Player Team Position(s) ADP / AAV Min Max
1 Julio Rodriguez SEA OF 2.63 1 5
2 Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL OF 3.38 1 6
3 Aaron Judge NYY OF 4.94 2 8
4 Kyle Tucker HOU OF 8.06 6 11
5 Juan Soto SD OF 9.69 6 15
6 Mookie Betts LAD OF 11.06 9 17
7 Yordan Alvarez HOU OF 12.75 6 20
8 Mike Trout LAA OF 25.38 15 74
9 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD SS, OF 27.81 16 55
10 Michael Harris II ATL OF 28 16 48
11 Luis Robert CWS OF 35.06 19 56
12 Randy Arozarena TB OF 45.31 28 61
13 Cedric Mullins BAL OF 49.75 36 57
14 Daulton Varsho ARZ C, OF 59.38 37 92
15 Teoscar Hernandez TOR OF 60.13 40 89
16 Starling Marte NYM OF 63.19 33 100
17 Corbin Carroll ARZ OF 66.38 48 91
18 Adolis Garcia TEX OF 68.38 44 112
19 Kyle Schwarber PHI OF 70.94 46 99
20 George Springer TOR OF 83.13 62 105
21 Byron Buxton MIN OF 86.13 59 120
22 Eloy Jimenez CWS OF 90.94 74 108
23 Bryan Reynolds PIT OF 101.25 85 129
24 Tyler O’Neill STL OF 101.38 62 126
25 Kris Bryant COL OF 109.38 74 137
26 MJ Melendez KC C, OF 115.88 95 135
27 Nick Castellanos PHI OF 116.44 91 143
28 Christian Yelich MLW OF 128.69 90 166
29 Taylor Ward LAA OF 135.75 110 179
30 Steven Kwan CLE OF 136.31 73 177
31 Anthony Santander BAL OF 139.44 115 162
32 Giancarlo Stanton NYY OF 143.13 115 173
33 Jake McCarthy ARZ OF 147.88 121 191
34 Seiya Suzuki CHC OF 150.69 124 181
35 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B, OF 151.75 124 179
36 Hunter Renfroe MLW OF 158.44 128 190
37 Ian Happ CHC OF 170.06 141 202
38 Whit Merrifield TOR 2B, OF 172.69 98 255
39 Mitch Haniger SEA OF 179.06 122 223
40 Harrison Bader NYY OF 191.5 162 242
41 Oscar Gonzalez CLE OF 191.5 164 269
42 Brandon Nimmo NYM OF 197.25 166 238
43 Cody Bellinger LAD OF 203.38 151 229
44 Seth Brown OAK 1B, OF 208.75 187 237
45 Alex Verdugo BOS OF 209 157 244
46 Riley Greene DET OF 209.81 174 232
47 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, OF 215.5 193 258
48 Christopher Morel CHC 2B, OF 218.63 187 264
49 Joey Meneses WAS 1B, OF 222 119 304
50 Lars Nootbaar STL OF 230.94 188 282
51 Ramon Laureano OAK OF 234.25 188 326
52 Jarred Kelenic SEA OF 239.94 178 295
53 Trey Mancini HOU 1B, OF 250.13 185 309
54 Andrew Benintendi NYY OF 253.56 162 303
55 Gavin Lux LAD 2B, OF 254.5 189 300
56 Trent Grisham SD OF 258.06 179 319
57 Randal Grichuk COL OF 258.81 223 335
58 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR OF 259.56 220 290
59 Joc Pederson SF OF 270.06 202 347
60 Austin Hays BAL OF 270.56 218 341
61 Brandon Marsh PHI OF 272.13 207 356
62 Bryan De La Cruz MIA OF 272.56 198 337
63 Manuel Margot TB OF 279.63 220 342
64 Juan Yepez STL OF 282.81 208 373
65 Charlie Blackmon COL OF 282.88 228 327
66 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, OF 286.88 230 361
67 Lane Thomas WAS OF 289.88 225 363
68 Dylan Carlson STL OF 290.13 229 359
69 Bubba Thompson TEX OF 291.31 211 414
70 Nick Gordon MIN 2B, OF 295.75 251 363
71 Marcell Ozuna ATL OF 298.63 199 355
72 Jorge Soler MIA OF 299.44 207 362
73 Jesse Winker SEA OF 301.44 246 367
74 Tommy Pham BOS OF 302.94 191 361
75 Edward Olivares KC OF 303.38 187 446
76 Jake Fraley CIN OF 312.88 255 380
77 Austin Meadows DET OF 321.94 197 407
78 Alex Kirilloff MIN OF 322.19 262 379
79 Brendan Donovan STL 2B, 3B, OF 323.63 248 406
80 Oswaldo Cabrera NYY OF 327.75 242 396
81 Garrett Mitchell MLW OF 330.13 229 453
82 Alek Thomas ARZ OF 347 277 416
83 Jurickson Profar SD OF 351 265 408
84 Avisail Garcia MIA OF 356.44 262 423
85 Mark Canha NYM OF 364.38 281 413
86 Jose Siri TB OF 368.75 270 488
87 Leody Taveras TEX OF 369.5 283 445
88 Esteury Ruiz MLW OF 370.44 263 481
89 Enrique Hernandez BOS OF 370.88 291 475
90 Jo Adell LAA OF 374.56 310 489
91 Josh Lowe TB OF 378.25 315 485
92 Myles Straw CLE OF 380.13 227 466
93 Harold Ramirez TB 1B, OF 382.13 299 454
94 Drew Waters KC OF 387.06 308 441
95 Jesus Sanchez MIA OF 389.94 300 523
96 Max Kepler MIN OF 403.81 338 455
97 Joey Gallo LAD OF 406.81 306 486
98 Chas McCormick HOU OF 410.25 279 507
99 Akil Baddoo DET OF 410.69 228 540
100 Kerry Carpenter DET OF 413.69 303 502
101 Mike Yastrzemski SF OF 415.56 326 492
102 AJ Pollock CWS OF 419.81 252 480
103 Gavin Sheets CWS OF 419.94 318 558
104 Tyrone Taylor MLW OF 421 279 500
105 Andrew McCutchen MLW OF 422.31 364 526
106 Ji Hwan Bae PIT OF 433.81 286 709
107 Michael Brantley HOU OF 445.19 357 573
108 Eddie Rosario ATL OF 448.31 318 552
109 Dylan Moore SEA SS, OF 451 281 562
110 Jack Suwinski PIT OF 454 293 528
111 Vidal Brujan TB 2B, OF 458.63 315 589
112 Jarren Duran BOS OF 459.63 291 586
113 TJ Friedl CIN OF 460.31 386 624
114 Trevor Larnach MIN OF 465.13 354 671
115 Will Brennan CLE OF 470.25 360 619
116 Adam Frazier SEA 2B, OF 476 337 567
117 Wil Myers SD 1B, OF 481.5 361 584
118 Hunter Dozier KC 1B, 3B, OF 485.75 347 555
119 Tony Kemp OAK 2B, OF 500.56 392 662
120 Nolan Jones CLE OF 505.25 331 647
121 Victor Robles WAS OF 505.38 413 738
122 Sal Frelick FA OF 506.13 363 618
123 Miguel Andujar PIT OF 509.06 360 700
124 Michael Toglia COL OF 509.31 317 567
125 Adam Duvall ATL OF 510.25 340 686
126 Raimel Tapia TOR OF 512.88 344 599
127 JJ Bleday MIA OF 516.44 381 592
128 Oscar Colas FA OF 516.5 439 602
129 Aledmys Diaz HOU 2B, OF 517.69 410 595
130 Kyle Stowers BAL OF 523.31 399 681
131 Nick Senzel CIN OF 527.81 427 632
132 Brennen Davis CHC OF 530.88 328 733
133 Trayce Thompson LAD OF 533.81 249 712
134 Nate Eaton KC OF 550.19 376 724
135 LaMonte Wade Jr. SF 1B, OF 550.31 452 652
136 Tyler Naquin NYM OF 565.94 429 749
137 Stone Garrett ARZ OF 567.75 444 723
138 Brian Anderson MIA 3B, OF 572.88 396 702
139 Diego Castillo PIT 2B, SS, OF 585.25 447 737
140 Alec Burleson STL OF 586.5 419 733
141 Rafael Ortega CHC OF 597.63 414 703
142 Josh Smith TEX 3B, OF 600 459 707
143 Matt Vierling PHI OF 600.38 483 731
144 Willi Castro DET OF 601.56 451 733
145 Robbie Grossman ATL OF 601.94 443 696
146 Connor Joe COL 1B, OF 603.94 336 709
147 Austin Slater SF OF 604.63 510 742
148 Kyle Isbel KC OF 610 504 731
149 David Peralta TB OF 610 498 724
150 Garrett Hampson COL SS, OF 620.06 448 728
151 Michael A. Taylor KC OF 622.38 429 670
152 Yonathan Daza COL OF 624.38 423 720
153 James Outman LAD OF 631.69 404 738
154 George Valera CLE OF 631.94 461 744
155 Zac Veen FA OF 634.31 457 695
156 Sean Bouchard COL OF 638.5 492 729
157 Sam Haggerty SEA OF 648.38 497 729
158 Pedro Leon FA OF 648.44 484 735
159 Colton Cowser FA OF 661.06 412 717
160 Cal Mitchell PIT OF 662.94 490 702
161 Joey Wiemer FA OF 664.69 513 671
162 Pavin Smith ARZ OF 673 468 726
163 Dustin Harris FA OF 677.19 478 725
164 Yadiel Hernandez WAS OF 678.19 381 713
165 Luis Gonzalez SF OF 687.38 458 739
166 Conner Capel OAK OF 688.06 572 679
167 Aaron Hicks NYY OF 688.69 519 745
168 Nelson Velazquez CHC OF 694.88 313 740
169 Matt Wallner MIN OF 695.06 484 744
170 Cooper Hummel ARZ OF 698.19 518 732
171 Jake Meyers HOU OF 704.94 544 720
172 Masataka Yoshida FA OF 709.13 559 746
173 Alex Call WAS OF 710.81 609 731
174 Cristian Pache OAK OF 710.94 550 667
175 Tyler Gentry FA OF 711.25 549 748
176 Will Benson CLE OF 713.44 514 705
177 Kyle Garlick MIN OF 716.44 502 746
178 Eli White TEX OF 718.25 467 722
179 Mickey Moniak LAA OF 719.25 472 746
180 Skye Bolt OAK OF 720.19 425 745
181 Taylor Trammell SEA OF 721.88 439 710
182 Corey Julks FA OF 724.56 656 749
183 Corey Dickerson STL OF 726.31 624 713
184 Nick Maton PHI OF 727.19 545 723
185 Kole Calhoun TEX OF 727.75 541 711
186 Wynton Bernard COL OF 728.25 570 746
187 Travis Swaggerty PIT OF 728.94 615 742
188 Darin Ruf 러프 NYM 1B, OF 733.13 552 746
189 Aristides Aquino CIN OF 733.88 610 750
190 Chad Pinder OAK OF 733.88 667 749
191 Justyn-Henry Malloy FA OF 734.56 647 737
192 Mauricio Dubon HOU SS, OF 735.38 626 742
193 Nick Solak TEX OF 737 642 729
194 Peyton Burdick MIA OF 738.69 595 710
195 Luke Williams LAD 3B, OF 738.88 583 725
196 Estevan Florial NYY OF 739 613 740
197 Brad Miller TEX 3B, OF 740.75 693 748
198 Sam Hilliard ATL OF 741.06 651 738
199 Ben Gamel PIT OF 741.63 667 750
200 Brendon Davis DET OF 741.81 643 750
201 Leury Garcia CWS 2B, OF 741.94 617 740
202 Gilberto Celestino MIN OF 743.63 635 749
203 Richie Palacios CLE OF 743.75 635 635
204 Heliot Ramos SF OF 745.13 692 745
205 Michael Siani CIN OF 745.13 695 713
206 Franchy Cordero BOS 1B, OF 745.44 708 736
207 Ceddanne Rafaela FA OF 747.25 691 691
208 Marwin Gonzalez NYY SS, OF 747.31 692 692
209 Cal Stevenson OAK OF 747.38 693 693
210 Nick Loftin FA OF 747.56 696 696
211 Stuart Fairchild CIN OF 747.88 701 701
212 Jose Azocar SD OF 748.25 707 707
213 Victor Reyes DET OF 748.75 721 745
214 Rob Refsnyder BOS OF 749.13 721 721
215 Lorenzo Cain MLW OF 749.56 728 728
216 Tucupita Marcano PIT 2B, OF 750.81 748 748
217 Ryan Braun FA OF 750.94 750 750
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
NFBC positional eligibility is based on 20 games played in the previous season

If you are playing in a shallow Yahoo league where you only start three outfielders, this won’t be much of an issue. However, if you are playing in a traditional five outfielder league, this gets ugly quickly, especially if you are in a deeper format like a 15-team league. There are really about 20 outfielders that don’t have huge question marks. When there are guys like Nick Castellanos and Kris Bryant, who were huge disappointments, going in the 30 outfielders, it speaks to the lack of depth.

 

UT Only
Those of you that play in leagues with lower eligibility requirements can ignore this section, however, in leagues where you have a 20 game requirement from the previous season, there are some interesting names on this list.

UT Only ADP: 11/9/2022
Rk Player Team Position(s) ADP / AAV Min Max
1 Shohei Ohtani LAA UT, P 6.75 2 11
2 Bryce Harper PHI UT 14 6 23
3 J.D. Martinez BOS UT 214.31 168 257
4 Francisco Alvarez NYM UT 252.06 209 296
5 Michael Conforto NYM UT 257.13 214 325
6 Shea Langeliers OAK UT 257.5 218 300
7 Jordan Walker STL UT 272.56 186 398
8 Mitch Garver TEX UT 280.81 185 386
9 Franmil Reyes CHC UT 296 198 388
10 Matt Carpenter NYY UT 393.69 177 537
11 Daniel Vogelbach NYM UT 554.25 409 699
12 Kyle Lewis SEA UT 564.5 411 730
13 Michael Busch LAD UT 575.44 415 746
14 Nelson Cruz WAS UT 583.13 447 739
15 Yainer Diaz HOU UT 583.69 403 686
16 Edwin Rios LAD UT 598.94 405 704
17 Austin Martin TOR UT 619.44 377 746
18 Darick Hall PHI UT 653 467 734
19 Mark Vientos NYM UT 700.75 575 715
20 Tommy La Stella SF UT 718.31 546 708
21 Alexander Canario CHC UT 718.63 559 726
22 Tyler Soderstrom OAK UT 719.75 500 737
23 Jake Rogers DET UT 723.56 597 727
24 Xavier Edwards TB UT 728.88 547 601
25 Ryan Vilade COL UT 729.38 586 696
26 Mike Freeman CIN UT 730.69 426 426
27 Mark Mathias TEX UT 733 613 718
28 Robert Hassell SD UT 734.94 667 744
29 Malcom Nunez STL UT 735.06 512 735
30 Ben Rortvedt NYY UT 737.25 534 748
31 Noelvi Marte SEA UT 738.19 647 730
32 David Hensley HOU UT 738.63 650 745
33 Moises Gomez FA UT 738.69 653 712
34 Nick Gonzales PIT UT 741.06 663 680
35 Yasiel Puig 푸이그 ATL UT 741.06 641 748
36 Willie Calhoun SF UT 742.06 624 735
37 Wenceel Perez DET UT 742.44 677 688
38 Miguel Cabrera DET UT 745.25 680 730
39 Yoelkis Cespedes CWS UT 745.81 668 668
40 Brayan Rocchio CLE UT 746.31 708 747
41 Seth Beer ARZ UT 746.88 685 685
42 Blaze Alexander ARZ UT 747.25 691 691
43 Isan Diaz MIA UT 749.75 731 731
44 Rick Poundstone FA UT 750 735 735
45 Dillon Dingler DET UT 750.63 745 745
46 Evan White SEA UT 750.94 750 750
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
NFBC positional eligibility is based on 20 games played in the previous season

I will ignore Ohtani as he is a different kind of player than the rest. The first thing I noticed was Harper. Harper will enter the season without outfield eligibility because he was forced to DH much of the season due to injury. I think he will begin to drop his price even before we know what his plans are in terms of whether he will get surgery or not. If he needs surgery it could hold him out for the early part of the season. Now that his position eligibility is posted on NFBC (it was previously listed as OF because next year’s eligibility hadn’t been updated yet), I wonder if his price begins to drop.

The other big thing is that Francisco Alvarez, Shea Langeliers, and Mitch Garver all do not start the season with catcher eligibility. All three players will have their backers, but I think we will see their prices begin to drop as many people do not like drafting guys that don’t have a position to start the year. Personally, I am fine with rostering guys that are UT only, so I think this is a nice buying opportunity.

 

Middle Infielders
Middle infield has some interesting things in it in terms of how each of the two positions are looking.

Middle Infielders ADP: 11/9/2022
Rk Player Team Position(s) ADP / AAV Min Max
1 Trea Turner LAD SS 1.56 1 3
2 Bobby Witt Jr. KC 3B, SS 8.19 3 17
3 Bo Bichette TOR SS 13.56 7 32
4 Francisco Lindor NYM SS 32.81 20 48
5 Marcus Semien TEX 2B 42 29 56
6 Ozzie Albies ATL 2B 42.31 23 68
7 Jose Altuve HOU 2B 48.63 28 64
8 Jazz Chisholm Jr. MIA 2B 50.69 28 65
9 Trevor Story BOS 2B 66.69 31 95
10 Dansby Swanson ATL SS 73.81 21 87
11 Corey Seager TEX SS 74.88 37 90
12 Oneil Cruz PIT SS 75.19 46 110
13 Tim Anderson CWS SS 77.81 39 113
14 Wander Franco TB SS 82 44 101
15 Tommy Edman STL 2B, SS 84.13 66 109
16 Xander Bogaerts BOS SS 84.56 55 105
17 Andres Gimenez CLE 2B 92.5 57 110
18 Willy Adames MLW SS 102.5 77 118
19 Jeremy Pena HOU SS 121 87 156
20 Carlos Correa MIN SS 122.75 99 152
21 Amed Rosario CLE SS 125.5 107 140
22 Gleyber Torres NYY 2B 129.5 102 155
23 Jorge Polanco MIN 2B 140.19 74 193
24 Brandon Lowe TB 2B 151.19 76 188
25 Javier Baez DET SS 152.69 103 197
26 Max Muncy LAD 2B, 3B 157.19 126 207
27 Nico Hoerner CHC SS 157.56 101 202
28 Josh Rojas ARZ 2B, 3B 162.13 123 203
29 Jonathan India CIN 2B 166.5 136 201
30 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B 170.44 113 230
31 Whit Merrifield TOR 2B, OF 172.69 98 255
32 Jorge Mateo BAL SS 175.88 133 212
33 Ketel Marte ARZ 2B 178.88 105 217
34 Brandon Drury SD 1B, 2B, 3B 182.56 129 255
35 Vaughn Grissom ATL 2B 185.13 124 248
36 Luis Arraez MIN 1B, 2B 195.19 142 239
37 Thairo Estrada SF 2B, SS 201.13 156 245
38 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 205.56 139 264
39 Jean Segura PHI 2B 206.63 161 279
40 Jon Berti MIA 2B, 3B 213.5 124 301
41 Bryson Stott PHI 2B, SS 215.31 176 248
42 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B, OF 215.5 193 258
43 Christopher Morel CHC 2B, OF 218.63 187 264
44 Kolten Wong MLW 2B 238.25 195 321
45 Adalberto Mondesi KC SS 240.31 150 360
46 Brendan Rodgers COL 2B 241.88 182 292
47 Luis Urias MLW 2B, 3B, SS 244.88 175 299
48 CJ Abrams WAS SS 254.31 204 359
49 Gavin Lux LAD 2B, OF 254.5 189 300
50 Luis Rengifo LAA 2B, 3B 267.94 224 370
51 Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 SD 3B, SS 275.69 234 329
52 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, OF 286.88 230 361
53 Nick Gordon MIN 2B, OF 295.75 251 363
54 Ezequiel Tovar COL SS 302.81 193 410
55 Luis Garcia WAS 2B, SS 304 231 379
56 Brendan Donovan STL 2B, 3B, OF 323.63 248 406
57 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B, 3B 333.38 272 419
58 Nolan Gorman STL 2B 334.56 251 389
59 Elvis Andrus CWS SS 338.81 266 428
60 Isaac Paredes TB 1B, 2B, 3B 343.25 217 431
61 Royce Lewis MIN SS 367.25 234 418
62 Oswald Peraza NYY SS 369.69 270 471
63 Rodolfo Castro PIT 2B, 3B 371.25 263 490
64 Ramon Urias BAL 2B, 3B 373.25 310 453
65 Isiah Kiner-Falefa NYY SS 383.69 269 439
66 Kyle Farmer CIN 3B, SS 395.56 319 468
67 Anthony Volpe FA SS 399.5 291 512
68 J.P. Crawford SEA SS 411.38 317 456
69 Joey Wendle MIA 2B, 3B, SS 421.31 362 501
70 Santiago Espinal TOR 2B 435.38 252 576
71 Michael Massey KC 2B 436.25 305 548
72 Jonathan Schoop DET 2B 448.25 385 554
73 Brandon Crawford SF SS 449.88 393 524
74 Dylan Moore SEA SS, OF 451 281 562
75 Vidal Brujan TB 2B, OF 458.63 315 589
76 Adam Frazier SEA 2B, OF 476 337 567
77 David Fletcher LAA 2B, SS 490.06 371 648
78 Tony Kemp OAK 2B, OF 500.56 392 662
79 Nick Madrigal CHC 2B 512.56 325 722
80 Zach McKinstry CHC 2B, 3B 516.38 346 650
81 Aledmys Diaz HOU 2B, OF 517.69 410 595
82 Cavan Biggio TOR 1B, 2B 535.56 396 674
83 Christian Arroyo BOS 2B 536.56 398 640
84 Nicky Lopez KC 2B, 3B, SS 538.31 431 695
85 Miguel Rojas MIA SS 543.5 452 649
86 Jose Barrero CIN SS 550.56 390 688
87 Jonathan Aranda TB 2B 555.56 373 627
88 Diego Castillo PIT 2B, SS, OF 585.25 447 737
89 Taylor Walls TB 2B, 3B, SS 585.38 413 723
90 Cesar Hernandez WAS 2B 614.13 469 714
91 Garrett Hampson COL SS, OF 620.06 448 728
92 Geraldo Perdomo ARZ SS 629.13 493 740
93 Alan Trejo COL SS 640.06 355 715
94 Jose Iglesias COL SS 643.25 521 717
95 Abraham Toro SEA 2B, 3B 643.88 437 735
96 Edmundo Sosa PHI 3B, SS 644.88 502 742
97 Livan Soto LAA SS 652.69 417 727
98 Josh Harrison CWS 2B, 3B 653.19 480 747
99 Edouard Julien FA SS 660.19 523 750
100 Brice Turang MLW SS 660.75 518 717
101 Jordan Diaz OAK 2B 662 510 740
102 Nick Allen OAK 2B, SS 682.56 489 677
103 Jonathan Villar LAA 2B, 3B 684.63 563 726
104 Rougned Odor BAL 2B 694.19 582 724
105 Charles Leblanc MIA 2B 695.69 506 747
106 Orlando Arcia ATL 2B 697.44 593 727
107 Owen Miller CLE 1B, 2B 699.06 515 737
108 Addison Barger FA SS 710.56 559 737
109 Kevin Newman PIT 2B, SS 713.5 594 738
110 Maikel Garcia KC SS 716.13 479 680
111 Tyler Wade LAA 2B 716.63 543 750
112 Jordan Westburg FA SS 718.38 572 702
113 Nick Ahmed ARZ SS 718.56 523 703
114 Otto Lopez TOR SS 721 569 629
115 David Bote CHC 2B 725.31 562 743
116 Paul DeJong STL SS 727.81 536 691
117 Sheldon Neuse OAK 2B, 3B 733 589 625
118 Mauricio Dubon HOU SS, OF 735.38 626 742
119 Terrin Vavra BAL 2B 735.69 626 744
120 Enmanuel Valdez FA 2B 736.06 663 749
121 Luis Guillorme NYM 2B, 3B 737 619 748
122 Jose Rodrigue FA SS 738 543 543
123 Matt McClain FA SS 738.19 546 546
124 Leury Garcia CWS 2B, OF 741.94 617 740
125 Sergio Alcantara ARZ 2B, 3B, SS 744.31 696 699
126 Lenyn Sosa CWS 2B 744.38 693 703
127 Miles Mastrobuoni TB 2B 744.69 650 650
128 Jeter Downs BOS 2B 745.06 696 747
129 Romy Gonzalez CWS 2B 745.38 661 661
130 Danny Mendick CWS SS 746.5 679 679
131 Liover Peguero PIT SS 746.75 708 726
132 Marwin Gonzalez NYY SS, OF 747.31 692 692
133 Jonah Bride OAK 2B, 3B 748.69 714 714
134 Yu Chang BOS 2B 749.5 727 727
135 Joey Ortiz FA SS 749.75 731 731
136 Zack Gelof FA 2B 749.81 739 744
137 Buddy Kennedy ARZ 2B 750.06 736 736
138 Niko Goodrum HOU 2B 750.19 738 738
139 Tucupita Marcano PIT 2B, OF 750.81 748 748
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
NFBC positional eligibility is based on 20 games played in the previous season

Shortstop has been one of the deepest positions in the game for a few years and while that remains to be somewhat true, there are distinct drop offs in talent. There is a clear distinction between the first two tiers and the third tier (about forty picks). Then there is another drop off after Xander Bogaerts. There are still a ton of playable shortstops late, but the huge drop offs means that if you don’t get one of those top 12, you could be putting yourself behind the 8-ball.

Second base is somewhat similar in the big drop offs early. There is a clear top 3-5 but there are no second basemen going in the first two rounds of a 15-team league. The depth at second base is very suspect as well. 24 of the top 40 second basemen have eligibility elsewhere and I wouldn’t be very comfortable with starting many of them in most formats. There are some interesting sleeper guys, but it may be the weakest position from top to bottom.

 

Corner Infielders
First and third base have very similar looks to them as last year.

Corner Infielders ADP: 11/9/2022
Rk Player Team Position(s) ADP / AAV Min Max
1 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B 3.75 1 6
2 Bobby Witt Jr. KC 3B, SS 8.19 3 17
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B 14.13 8 20
4 Freddie Freeman LAD 1B 15.13 8 21
5 Manny Machado SD 3B 15.69 11 21
6 Rafael Devers BOS 3B 20.44 14 25
7 Austin Riley ATL 3B 22.75 17 31
8 Pete Alonso NYM 1B 23.38 14 37
9 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B 30.31 22 41
10 Matt Olson ATL 1B 44.75 24 61
11 Nolan Arenado STL 3B 45.5 28 59
12 Alex Bregman HOU 3B 90.94 48 113
13 Vinnie Pasquantino KC 1B 94.06 62 120
14 Gunnar Henderson BAL 3B 96.69 59 138
15 Nathaniel Lowe TEX 1B 102.5 61 127
16 C.J. Cron COL 1B 106.56 82 130
17 Rhys Hoskins PHI 1B 115.31 86 145
18 Jose Abreu CWS 1B 127.19 93 149
19 Christian Walker ARZ 1B 148.88 128 197
20 Ryan Mountcastle BAL 1B 149.75 119 191
21 Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT 3B 150.75 106 193
22 Andrew Vaughn CWS 1B, OF 151.75 124 179
23 Eugenio Suarez SEA 3B 154.25 127 183
24 Max Muncy LAD 2B, 3B 157.19 126 207
25 Josh Rojas ARZ 2B, 3B 162.13 123 203
26 Jose Miranda MIN 1B, 3B 164.5 111 206
27 Ty France SEA 1B 165.31 111 200
28 Anthony Rizzo NYY 1B 166.06 118 189
29 Matt Chapman TOR 3B 166.75 139 210
30 Jake Cronenworth SD 1B, 2B 170.44 113 230
31 Alec Bohm PHI 3B 174.5 111 219
32 Brandon Drury SD 1B, 2B, 3B 182.56 129 255
33 Rowdy Tellez MLW 1B 189.25 159 210
34 Josh Bell SD 1B 193.13 155 225
35 Luis Arraez MIN 1B, 2B 195.19 142 239
36 Josh Naylor CLE 1B 200.19 125 250
37 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 2B, 3B 205.56 139 264
38 Anthony Rendon LAA 3B 208.5 121 268
39 Seth Brown OAK 1B, OF 208.75 187 237
40 Ryan McMahon COL 3B 209.69 131 277
41 Josh Jung TEX 3B 212.88 155 271
42 Jon Berti MIA 2B, 3B 213.5 124 301
43 Joey Meneses WAS 1B, OF 222 119 304
44 Triston Casas BOS 1B 244.63 176 301
45 Luis Urias MLW 2B, 3B, SS 244.88 175 299
46 Trey Mancini HOU 1B, OF 250.13 185 309
47 Luis Rengifo LAA 2B, 3B 267.94 224 370
48 Yoan Moncada CWS 3B 275.44 204 349
49 Ha-Seong Kim SD 3B, SS 275.69 234 329
50 Jared Walsh LAA 1B 281.75 198 372
51 Spencer Torkelson DET 1B 287.56 227 348
52 Justin Turner LAD 3B 302.88 189 370
53 Luke Voit WAS 1B 316 231 389
54 Matt Mervis FA 1B 317.44 277 387
55 Eduardo Escobar NYM 3B 321.31 269 411
56 Brendan Donovan STL 2B, 3B, OF 323.63 248 406
57 Miguel Vargas LAD 1B 323.69 197 426
58 Patrick Wisdom CHC 3B 327 237 418
59 Wilmer Flores SF 1B, 2B, 3B 333.38 272 419
60 Yandy Diaz TB 3B 334.06 283 449
61 Isaac Paredes TB 1B, 2B, 3B 343.25 217 431
62 Gio Urshela MIN 3B 353.56 281 484
63 Joey Votto CIN 1B 359.5 257 455
64 Rodolfo Castro PIT 2B, 3B 371.25 263 490
65 Ramon Urias BAL 2B, 3B 373.25 310 453
66 Harold Ramirez TB 1B, OF 382.13 299 454
67 Brett Baty NYM 3B 388.06 279 508
68 Kyle Farmer CIN 3B, SS 395.56 319 468
69 Christian Bethancourt TB C, 1B 397.5 328 474
70 J.D. Davis SF 3B 407.25 331 461
71 Josh Donaldson NYY 3B 417 328 534
72 Joey Wendle MIA 2B, 3B, SS 421.31 362 501
73 Spencer Steer CIN 3B 445.5 322 648
74 Yuli Gurriel HOU 1B 454.81 318 565
75 David Villar SF 3B 455.25 208 546
76 Keston Hiura MLW 1B 456.81 301 553
77 Elehuris Montero COL 3B 472.56 307 596
78 Jeimer Candelario DET 3B 476.06 390 594
79 Garrett Cooper MIA 1B 479.63 363 656
80 Wil Myers SD 1B, OF 481.5 361 584
81 Nick Pratto KC 1B 484.81 411 535
82 Hunter Dozier KC 1B, 3B, OF 485.75 347 555
83 Brandon Belt SF 1B 500.38 374 731
84 Zach McKinstry CHC 2B, 3B 516.38 346 650
85 Eric Hosmer BOS 1B 523.69 411 623
86 Cavan Biggio TOR 1B, 2B 535.56 396 674
87 Nicky Lopez KC 2B, 3B, SS 538.31 431 695
88 LaMonte Wade Jr. SF 1B, OF 550.31 452 652
89 Bobby Dalbec BOS 1B, 3B 558.25 415 749
90 Jordan Groshans MIA 3B 568.56 348 687
91 Brian Anderson MIA 3B, OF 572.88 396 702
92 Harold Castro DET 1B, 3B 581.06 427 740
93 Taylor Walls TB 2B, 3B, SS 585.38 413 723
94 Miguel Sano MIN 1B 589.75 462 733
95 Jace Peterson MLW 3B 597.13 471 655
96 Josh Smith TEX 3B, OF 600 459 707
97 Ezequiel Duran TEX 3B 603.81 454 749
98 Connor Joe COL 1B, OF 603.94 336 709
99 Jesus Aguilar BAL 1B 607.06 389 743
100 Carlos Santana SEA 1B 619.31 449 716
101 Gabriel Arias CLE 3B 620.88 453 693
102 Jake Burger CWS 3B 626.38 522 704
103 Emmanuel Rivera ARZ 3B 634.75 466 735
104 Mike Moustakas CIN 1B, 3B 640.44 437 699
105 Abraham Toro SEA 2B, 3B 643.88 437 735
106 Edmundo Sosa PHI 3B, SS 644.88 502 742
107 Josh Harrison CWS 2B, 3B 653.19 480 747
108 Evan Longoria SF 3B 659.25 416 700
109 Carter Kieboom WAS 3B 663.88 488 697
110 P.J. Higgins CHC C, 1B 676.13 410 709
111 Jonathan Villar LAA 2B, 3B 684.63 563 726
112 Eguy Rosario SD 3B 688.44 481 690
113 Tyler Freeman CLE 3B 692 497 719
114 Frank Schwindel CHC 1B 695 510 738
115 Colton Welker SF 3B 698.38 576 717
116 Owen Miller CLE 1B, 2B 699.06 515 737
117 Ji-Man Choi TB 1B 708.38 558 736
118 Donovan Solano CIN 1B 713.38 586 722
119 Dominic Smith NYM 1B 717.94 421 747
120 Lewin Diaz MIA 1B 720.88 552 664
121 Dermis Garcia OAK 1B 721.13 594 688
122 Michael Chavis PIT 1B 722.38 584 724
123 Sheldon Neuse OAK 2B, 3B 733 589 625
124 Darin Ruf NYM 1B, OF 733.13 552 746
125 Mike Brosseau MLW 3B 736.75 596 678
126 Luis Guillorme NYM 2B, 3B 737 619 748
127 Leandro Cedeno FA 1B 737 584 737
128 Yonny Hernandez OAK 3B 737.44 625 660
129 Ildemaro Vargas WAS 3B 738.56 615 688
130 Luke Williams LAD 3B, OF 738.88 583 725
131 Kevin Smith OAK 3B 740.31 701 715
132 Brad Miller TEX 3B, OF 740.75 693 748
133 Deyvison De Los Santos FA 3B 743.81 636 636
134 Sergio Alcantara ARZ 2B, 3B, SS 744.31 696 699
135 A.J. Vukovich FA 3B 745 655 655
136 Franchy Cordero BOS 1B, OF 745.44 708 736
137 Andy Ibanez TEX 3B 746.19 674 674
138 Ryan Kreidler DET 3B 747.13 698 742
139 Yoshi Tsutsugo PIT 1B 748.63 713 713
140 Jonah Bride OAK 2B, 3B 748.69 714 714
141 Tyler Nevin BAL 3B 748.88 717 717
SOURCE: https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball
NFBC positional eligibility is based on 20 games played in the previous season

First base continues to be extremely deep with a lot of options from top to bottom. It may not be as stacked at the top end as years previous, but if you wait, you can still get usable pieces pretty much through the top 30 at the position.

Third base on the other hand is pretty ugly still. Adding to its ugliness is the fact that unlike first base, a lot of the players at the hot corner are also eligible elsewhere. The position is really top heavy with six players going in the top 50, but after that there are a ton of question marks.

 

Young Players
Let’s forget first rounders like Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt being expensive because they have definitely earned that. However, the price of young MLB players and prospects are really high this year. Michael Harris II is second rounder going a round ahead of more proven players like Cedric Mullins and Randy Arozarena. Corbin Carroll, Oneil Cruz, Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Vinnie Pasquantino are all top 100 players. Even without passing judgment on whether you think these players are worth it or not, I think this shows how aggressive the market is on youth.

Then you have the guys that haven’t even debuted yet like Jordan Walker (272.56) and Matt Mervis (317.44) who will continue to rise as the hype trains really get rolling. If you want some of these young guys, you will have to pay up for them especially in sharp draft rooms. I think a lot of these guys will be much cheaper in your ESPN and Yahoo leagues, but it is something that we will want to watch once their formats open for drafting.

Who are your favorite and least favorite hitters based on price?





 

Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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ManwichManmember
1 year ago

I think Soto is a little overpriced relative to who else is around that area. I think Yordan and Mookie are better bets at outfield, and Vlad Jr/Machado offer similar floor/ceiling scenarios.

I think my big takeaway from this is that some of the most reliable power bats are being underrated despite the drop in HRs across the league. Schwarber, Stanton, and Seager are all around the range they were drafted at last year or lower.

I also think the market has overcorrected on Correa. The fact that his high ADP is practically the same as the low ADP for Bogaerts and Wander, and has an ADP 20 spots lower than Willy Adames is too bearish. I’d love to get him at that price if it’s still like this in the spring.

I also agree with your assessment of catcher, and think Adley is extremely overpriced. He couldn’t hit lefties at all last year, and his power ceiling is limited because of how much Camden suppresses RHH power now. William Contreras 80 spots later seems like a much better bet to return the production and value people are hoping for from Adley.

Last edited 1 year ago by ManwichMan
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Justin Masonmember
1 year ago
Reply to  ManwichMan

I think Correa’s price will rise once he signs with a new team. I like the value on a lot of those power bats especially with the likelihood stolen bases may be more available with the new rules. I tend to disagree on Adley. While his power isn’t fully developed, his contact profile is pretty amazing. I think the price is a bit high, but I also am not fading him necessarily.

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ManwichManmember
1 year ago
Reply to  Justin Mason

I agree that Correa’s price will rise once he signs, especially if it’s a team with a more favorable park/lineup than the Twins last year, but it still doesn’t explain the discount fully when Bogaerts situation is also in the air.

Adley’s contact profile is pretty amazing, but, again, at that price, why not buy Kirk 35 spots lower? He offers the same contact profile, but, based off last year, a better BA and power ceiling because of his exit velo, more balanced launch angle, and level platoon split. He’s also on a better team in a better park. And looking at recent prospect evals, Kirk’s hit tool and power is neck and neck with Adley. At that price, it’s pre paying for an excellent catcher season. What do you think the case for someone buying Adley at that price is? Hope for a power and AVG jump and a .290/25 HR season?

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