Third Time’s a Charm?

Feels like a starting pitcher is hitting the IL every day. Or is that just on my fantasy team? As I scoured the waiver wire for options to just get me some innings, I wanted to try to at least maintain some kind of floor.

When looking at pitchers outside of your top rostered starters, it can be a minefield; these are pitchers not picked up for a reason. The problem that can be prevalent is that these pitchers are susceptible to blow-up innings that quickly crater decent starts into nightmare starts. Often this takes place on the third time through the lineup.

Across around 140 starters, the median xERA went from 3.74 the first time through to 4.60 by the third. Finding a pitcher who can even get through a lineup three times is its own challenge, and many are hard avoids.

So naturally, this deep into the season, when looking at waivers, there is a reason the names you’re seeing are still available.

The xERA delta (which I’ll call delta from here) is the difference between the third and first time through the order (3rd minus 1st). So someone like Shota Imanaga, for example, despite being on rosters in almost all formats, has a delta of 4.84: 2.58 xERA the first time through, climbing to 7.42 the third time through. When looking at the names with the biggest delta, the spike occurs late in this third time through. Eight of the top ten are stable, facing a lineup order twice, then crater three times through the order. Kyle Harrison is the extreme case: his xERA actually improves from 1st to 2nd, going from 3.12 to 2.98, respectively, then explodes to 8.13. Imanaga, Sean Manaea, and Nick Lodolo show the same pattern. The outliers were Michael Lorenzen and Shane McClanahan, two gradual degraders, getting steadily worse each time through.

There is a reason why the third time through has become somewhat of a cliché; the data still supports this as a pressure point, especially for young pitchers, as we have seen Kade Anderson struggle the third time through in his two outings, after strong openings.

The Driver

So what would be the driver that causes the ballooning of ERAs? Well, the obvious point is that after multiple looks, hitters pick up the ball easier, so contact numbers across the board spike, and pitchers find it much harder to miss bats. This is league-wide: K% dropped from 24.0% to 19.8% between the first and third time through the order, and AVG climbed from .232 to .252. But the pitchers on this list get hit with an exaggerated version of the same trend. Their K% fell from 26.7% to 17.0%, a 10.6-point drop compared to 3.0 for everyone else. Their HR/9 spiked from 0.86 to 2.09, a median increase of 1.28, while the rest of the league’s HR/9 actually ticked down by 0.06.

So now we can look to see who can plug some pitching holes, but first let’s look at who to avoid. I have included consensus roster rates for reference, but this will obviously vary from format to format.

Time to Drop?

This first list features pitchers who might actually be worth dropping at this stage of the season, or at least approaching with caution. Kyle Harrison at 80% rostered is the most interesting name with a respectable 3.87 ERA. But as mentioned earlier, his xERA explodes from 3.12 to 2.98 to 8.13, a delta of +5.01. Worth noting, this is on just a sample of 13 IP, three times through, by far the smallest sample, and this sample is susceptible to some noisy starts skewing the data. Concerning is that in his last two starts, he has not gotten past four innings pitched, allowing nine runs and ten hits in his most recent start in Chicago.

Lodolo is the biggest flag, and his results are so bad he was almost not worth including. The likes of Kyle Bradish, Robbie Ray, and McClanahan are very intriguing names and will sit on the start/benching dilemma in a lot of rosters.

In the table, TTO refers to time through order, and the number in the column is the total batters faced.

It’s A Trap

So next are the names you probably do not want to be adding, even if they are available. There is a reason for that. Davis Martin and Bryce Miller are the most high-profile names here and still carry decent ownership. Miller looks like he has been holding an injury and has been moved to the bullpen, and Martin, facing his own injury battles, came off the IL and put up a solid start in Houston, pitching five and a third, but has really struggled when facing the order on the third turn.

A Final Hope?

This group is an eclectic mix of below 50% rostered starters. Each has their own limitations, but some are worth potentially stronger consideration than others. Bryce Elder, who, like Martin, had a great start to the season, saw his HR/9 spike from 0.81 to 1.96, the highest in the group, and his barrel rate rose from 6.2% to 8.7% three times through. Grant Holmes and Bubba Chandler are able to keep the ball in the park, but not in the strike zone, with their walk rate climbing above 14%.

Some are worth considering. Casey Mize carries a 3.64 ERA at 41% rostered, and his third-time-through profile is the cleanest of the group: 3.55 xERA, 4.7% BB% (the lowest here), 15.1% K-BB%, and a 0.81 HR/9 that actually drops from his 0.92 first time through, but he has faced some pretty big struggles since being moved to San Diego. JT Ginn could be a nice value play given his rostered percentage and 3.77 ERA, posting a 3.76 xERA the third time through, with his HR/9 cutting in half from 1.63 to 0.85, barrel rate holding at 6.2%, exit velocity staying soft at 89.4, and the second-largest sample in the group, and a pretty respectable floor.

Bennett has the lowest xERA of the three at 3.32, the highest K% at 20.7%, the only pitcher here still above the league median, and just struck out seven against the Orioles. With a sub-1.00 HR/9 at 0.93, his barrel rate drops from 5.9% to 5.2%, though his hard-hit rate did spike from 27.5% to 44.8%, which is the biggest contact quality jump in the group. So while he has the highest ceiling, the climbing hard-hit rate could be a concern.

Ultimately, Miller, Martin, or Drohan could equally fill out an emergency start and match anyone in the above table. But given the floor that being able to get through a lineup three times, and the ability to have a better idea of what you can expect from these kinds of starters, can be useful to plug gaps at this stage of the season.