Third Base Keeper Rankings: Tier One
I have a bit of an undesirable task of trying to make some kind of sense out of the third base mess from the past season. On the one hand, we have guys like Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright who are typically top shelf third basemen heading into the season. However, if you’ve looked over the FVARz database, you’ll notice their actual fantasy value relative to on-field performance was keeping company with Danny Valencia and Daniel Murphy. So what a top tier at third base for keeper value looks like is probably open to a great deal of debate.
Fortunately, what’s not debatable is who leads off the first tier, and that’s quite obviously Jose Bautista – who ranks a country mile (or should I say country click to honor our friends to the North) ahead of the rest of the pack. The big question after Bautista’s breakout 2010 is what he would provide as an encore, and to my surprise, he was every bit as good in 2011 (in fact, he was better if you count WAR at night to put you to sleep like I do). Bautista improved his batting average, his walk rate, and lowered his strikeout rate and while he was a little dinged up, he still managed to be the only player to hit better than .300, record 40 or more home runs and drive in and score more than 100 runs. He is one of the no-doubters in terms of keepers, certainly considering the dearth of talent at third base.
And now it gets interesting.
Quite honestly, I think it would be easy to make the argument that the first tier begins and ends with Jose Bautista. But that just feels a little lazy. Back in February when we first started ranking 2011 third basemen, Evan Longoria and David Wright occupied the first tier. Of the two, I think Longoria, 26, certainly deserves to be a keeper and whether or not Wright is may have more to do with the round and price you’re retaining him at.
If you happen to have a fellow manager who mutters anything about Longoria’s “down year,” this will be your opportunity to fleece him. Longoria’s wRC+ from 2008-2011: 130, 134, 140, 134. His wOBA from 2008-2011: .373, .380, .376, .365. That’s pretty darn consistent, and consistently very good. Even playing in just 133 games, he still managed to hit 31 home runs and drive in 99 runs. His 2011 story, of course, has a lot to do with trouble hitting them where they ain’t. His BABIP from 2008-2011: .309, .313, .336, .239. His BABIP on ground balls and fly balls compared to the AL league average is practically criminal:
Considering 82% of his batted balls were either a ground ball or a fly ball, this kind of luck is obviously going to have a pretty significant impact on the batting average. Just think of what his season might have looked like if he approached anything near a career-average BABIP. Smart money is on a major rebound in 2012.
Mostly because of age considerations, this is where the first tier ends. The second tier will be a much larger group featuring many names that will be ranked quite high for drafting purposes, but the task today is keepers. And while a good argument could be made for a couple more guys in this top tier, the combination of injury, age, and in some cases ineffectiveness, makes them risky enough to slide them down.
Michael was born in Massachusetts and grew up in the Seattle area but had nothing to do with the Heathcliff Slocumb trade although Boston fans are welcome to thank him. You can find him on twitter at @michaelcbarr.
what about brett lawrie?
yep, he was kicked around a lot as first tier material. He’ll be in the next though. But obviously, if you own him, you keep him, no brainer.
Do you keep him over David Wright?
James – It’s a good question, and perhaps a good time to point something out: I think that’s all very contextual, and something we can’t really address in the posts because we don’t know what you paid for Lawrie or Wright, we don’t know the round, and we don’t know your individual league rules. We can assume, but we’d have to assume a lot – so we’re rather using the FVARz database as a jumping off point, and trying to use judgment relative to future value with an eye on age and injury.
I was thinking straight up based on future production. But I would keep Lawrie in the 20th round or Wright in the 3rd.
Sandoval, being younger and having had better years than Longoria, seems like an omission. I suppose injuries might make me nervous about him, but it does seem that he’s less destined for 1B since he’s slimmed down, started playing better defense, and with that position possibly blocked in the future. I’d trade Sandoval for Longoria, but I think they might belong in the same tier in keeper leagues…
Nick, I’m not so sure about that. Maybe check this out: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=5409,9368
Yes, but WAR includes Longoria’s defense, which doesn’t play in fantasy. Longoria hasn’t had a .396 wOBA season. In fact, Longoria’s best season (.380 wOBA) is roughly on par with Sandoval’s second best season (.379 wOBA). Longoria is about a year older than Sandoval as well.
wow, it’s a pretty big reach to put Sandoval in the same tier as Longoria for fantasy.
taking your two points: (1) Sandoval is a whopping TEN MONTHS younger than Longoria, which means the age difference is totally irrelevant and (2) I would like to see the year in which Sandoval had a “better year” than Longoria!
It’s pretty easy to toss off a “having had better years” comment but it’s simply counterfactual. I suppose if you take Sandoval’s BEST year (2009) it is a little better than Longo’s WORST year (2008 rookie year)…. but that’s what we in logic land like to call the “exception that proves the rule”.
Sandoval’s advantage in AVG doesn’t make up for Longoria’s crushing dominance in the other four categories. It’s really not close, call me when Sandoval goes 100/30/100.
Well, as far as the age goes, I mean, it’s about a year difference. Sandoval just completed his age 24 season, Longoria his age 25. I have no qualms with ignoring that, but I consider it a factor when discussing keeper leagues.
As for the better year comment – I was looking at wOBA just for an easy look at their offensive capabilities. You may get a few more steals from Longoria, I guess.
Sandoval’s wOBA (best to worst): .396, .379, .361 (partial rookie year), .314
Longoria’s wOBA (best to worst): .380, .376, .373, .365.
I understand that fantasy doesn’t use wOBA, but I do think that it’s somewhat useful to use it as a true measure of a player’s value looking ahead. I should also point out that I’m not in a 5×5 league, so I guess that’s important.
Either way, I think Sandoval has loads of talent and is in the same tier (as long as Longoria and Bautista are) looking forward.
Mike in a Dynasty keeper league. Would you deal Pujols for Hosmer and Lawrie? Or Pujols for Joey Batts and Napoli?
draft pick and dollars aside, probably yes to both, as long as Naps retains C eligibility
Thanks Mike. I know Batts is elite now. but the potential in Hosmer and Lawrie to get to elite status do you see them as first round talents in 1-3 years? Or am I safer with Bats and Napoli?
agreed, both offers are very enticing.
I think in a dynasty league, it would be awfully difficult to walk away from the two kids. Depends largely on whether you’re thinking title next year or several titles down the road.
Thanks Guys for all the responses, it’s a great debate. It’s hard to part with Pujols…
Here are the two offers I was presented with for Pujols
Hosmer, Lawrie, Anibel Sanchez
Joey Batts, Napoli, James Shields
Same team? Is he from St. Louis? Take him to the cleaners.
Get a new league, one without toddlers.
No New Jersey, lol Two seperate offers….This time of the year guys get excited during the playoffs…they overpay for players that do well.
Its a tough call…. which offer to take.
IMO it’s a no brainer to take Batts / Napoli / Shields!
yes it’s a dynasty league but flags fly forever, and there is no question that threesome has greater near-term value. Hosmer is no lock to be a fantasy stud at a very deep position (1B), Anibal is inconsistent, and Lawrie may be a star but things happen….
meanwhile, getting the production of JBats and Napoli at premium positions (3B + C) is a great deal, and Shields is better than Anibal for SP.
again, to me it’s a total no brainer. Don’t get caught up with stars in your eyes over unproven youngsters.
adrian beltre is somewhat nifty
Joe B – he is totally nifty. Even super keen. His was probably the toughest call on this tier. Could go either way.