Third Base ADP Market Report: 12/27/21

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

Top 100 Players Falling

Nolan Arenado (-6.98)- Arenado’s drop in th ADP is a bit surprising considering how good of a season he is coming off of. It may be more of a matter of other players rising above him. It seems pretty safe to say that he can repeat last year’s output or even improve upon it in the batting average department which makes him a nice value at a position with a number of question marks. 

Top 200 Players Rising

None

Top 200 Players Falling

Matt Chapman (-10.54)- Chapman started off the season slow, but it only got worse as the season went on, even though he found his power strike. From July on, he hit .190 and had the fourth worst strikeout rate of any qualified hitter in the Majors. Some of the struggles can be attributed to not being 100%, but a fair amount of it is approach. He will play every day because the defense is elite, but if he gets traded, the price will rise, but if he stays in Oakland, that lineup around him may be the worst in baseball. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Jeimer Candelario (+18.48)- It feels like Candelario is always “this year’s sleeper” in the industry. Sure, he had a nice second half buoyed by a huge September, but there just isn’t enough upside in his bat for him if he starts going in the top 200 picks. The price is fine, for now, but there just isn’t much of a path to another level. 

Jonathan Villar (+10.83)- Check out the piece in this series on shortstops. 

Cavan Biggio (+22.55)- I think Biggio’s rise has a lot to do with name recognition. People often will give players a second chance after they burn people, especially when they are still young. Biggio is coming off of an injury plagued season, but there is still power and speed in the profile and is hitting in one of the best lineups in based. With Semien gone, he could even hit up pretty high in the order, which would increase the value. 

Josh Jung (+13.23)- It is a bit surprising that Jung is continue to rise in spite of the Rangers signing Semien and Seager. I am on board with it though. I think there is a real shot that the Rangers are aggressive with Jung as they appear to be trying to open up a window right now. Jung breezed through AA and AAA, showing a plus hit tool with power. There is no reason to think the 23-year-old will be in AAA long. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Eugenio Suarez (-14.75)- Suarez was awful for most of the season, but salvaged  things with a gigantic Spetember, hitting .370 with eight home runs. I don’t think we are getting back to the guy we saw in 2019, but worst case, we are at least getting 30+ homers and a boatload of RBIs. The price is too good to pass up if it keeps dropping. 

Others of Note

J.D. Davis (-26.33) and Bretty Baty (-30.94)- The drops for Davis and Baty likely come from the recent Mets signings which will make it difficult for either to get full time plate appearances without one or both being moved in a trade. Of the two, I prefer Baty in drafts right now. His price is so cheap and there has been a lot of chatter about how great he looked in 2021 and in the Arizona Fall League. If Davis was moved, that might peak my interest , especially at the reduced price.