Third Base ADP Market Report: 12/26/2023

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Josh Jung (-13.71) – I don’t know why Jung is dropping. It may be more of a matter of other players around him rising more than anything else though. Jung is coming off of an amazing rookie season in which he hit 23 home runs with a .266/315/.467 triple slash in just 515 plate appearances due to injury. He is a future 30 home run hitter in the middle of a fantastic lineup. 

 

Top 200 Players Rising

None

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Nolan Arenado (-10.79) – I think Arenado’s fall has more to do with his age than anything else. It doesn’t make a ton of sense though because this is about as steady as they come. You get 25-30 home runs with a decent to good average and a lot of counting categories from soon-to-be 33-year-old. I like this discount. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Jeimer Candelario (+57.74) – Candelario’s rise is due to his free agent signing in Cincinnati. While this is a head scratching move from the team’s perspective, for Candelario it is a fantastic landing spot. In spite of a logjam for the Reds, his contract should dictate that he plays every day and he moves to the best home park in baseball. He has always had the ability to make good contact, but has struggled with playing time and elevating the ball consistently. While I don’t think this makes him a 30 home runs hitter, it could make him a 25+ guy with a decent average, but even if he doesn’t get a massive power gain from the new park, he should at least keep his most recent power gains and play a ton. 

Luis Rengifo (+22.41) – See the piece in this series on Second Basemen. 

Eugneio Suarez (+14.95) – Suarez is rising after being traded from the Mariners to the Diamondbacks. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of reason why though. It is a pretty neutral move in terms of park and division That being said, I think his price was already too low and he makes a lot of sense at his new current price especially if you are looking for power at a cheap price later in your draft. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Junior Caminero (-30.72) – Caminero is dropping due to the thought that he could start the year in the minor leagues. While he could, this seems pretty unlikely with the way the Rays roster currently situated. I think he is more likely to be on the roster than teammate Curtis Mead because of his ability to play shortstop and with it unlikely that Wander Franco will be on the team moving forward, Caminero should be on the 26-man roster. There are definitely some flaws to his game, but he handled himself well enough in his seven game sample to be given an opportunity to compete for the job in spring training. If they bring another bat in, then that may be a sign that the Rays will send him down, but I am betting they will give Caminero a shot.  

 

Others of Note

Colt Keith (-23.26) – Keith is dropping because of the chance he starts the year in the minors. I tend to disagree here. Colt hit well in both AA and AAA and there is an opening at the hot corner for the Tigers. I think the team will give him an opportunity to win the job and a hot spring training could mean the Colt Era begins in March. 

Tyler Black (+47.89) – Black is rising as a potential prospect that could make the Majors early for the Brewers and steal a ton of bases. Black stole 55 bases in 123 games between AA and AAA. He has shown a good hit tool and a great approach. There are some questions about where he fits defensively, but at worst he could be a multi-positional player for the Brewers. Definitely someone to keep an eye on. 

Curtis Mead (-39.1) – Mead is falling because of the same reason as Caminero, but unlike Caminero, I do not think that Mead begins the year on the roster. Mead is a more polished bat, but defensively, he is a bit of a problem and with Brandon Lowe heading into the season healthy, I think it is unlikely that Mead makes the team out of camp unless there is an injury. 

Oswald Peraza (-37.82) – Peraza is falling with the concerns about playing time and for good reason. Right now, he looks to be backup infielder if the Yankees being the year healthy, but let’s be honest: when are the Yankees healthy? I think Peraza is an interesting late gamble if he continues to drop with the high likelihood that there is a role for him to jump into sooner rather than later.