The Whiffiest Pitches Around

As I sat and wandered the databases, the thoughts running through my head were the same being pondered by every other reasonable baseball fan. Is there a bookcase in Rob Manfred’s office that if you pull on the correct book will spin around to reveal a panel of giant levers that controls which baseballs are currently being used? And if so, will “waterlogged” stay pulled, or could it be flipped to “happy fun ball” at any given moment? If that’s the case, we might as well prepare by looking at the pitches getting the most air so far in 2022.

Here are the top-10 SwStr% for each pitch type (min = 75). Also included are CSW%, Whiff%, and oSwing% for 2021 and 2022. All five splitfingers that qualify were included but really this has all just been a reason to talk about how Kevin Gausman has basically lapped the field.

 

 

Kevin Gausman, splitfinger

There are a few reasons Gausman has a 2.27 ERA (0.50 FIP) over his first five starts but the splitfinger begins and ends the conversation. And boy, does it end things with batters, as he has a 33.6% K% in 2022, with 30 of his 41 strikeouts ending with the splitter.

Gausman’s 38.4% SwStr% trails only Edwin Díaz’s slider for all pitch types, while a 96.0% oSwing% leads the pack. But the splitty isn’t just getting whiffs, as it also has a 69.2% GB% that’s in the top-25 among all pitches. Combining the above, 50.3% of his 151 splitters in 2022 have resulted in either a groundball or a whiff. For context, only one other pitch is even over 40%.

I mean, seriously, what are you supposed to do with this?

The answer, if you’re Marcus Semien, is to pretend like you didn’t totally almost fall.

There was some trepidation on what a move to the AL East might do his ratios but Gausman has been gangbusters so far and is doing it with a pitch that gets a bevy of whiffs and grounders – something that would serve him well if Mr. Manfred gets to lever-flipping.

Jhoan Duran, splitfinger

Let’s briefly talk about a pitch that didn’t qualify for the list but has resulted in a similar whiff or grounder profile as Gausman, just in a much smaller sample. Because while Jhoan Duran has only thrown his splitter 43 times, so far it has a 32.6% SwStr% and 72.7% GB%, giving him a 50% rate for groundballs or whiffs that barely trails Gausman.

9-9 (mph) splits are notoriously hard to pick up:

Pairing the filth above with a four-seamer that can reach 102 mph, many consider his ascent to Minnesota’s closer to be an inevitability. While Duran doesn’t have the job yet, if (when) he gets it, the sub-20% rostered rates will quickly disappear.

Andrés Muñoz, slider

He’s been a personal favorite for a while, as I’ve gone from deeming Muñoz the future closer in San Diego, then as the future closer in Seattle, to shaking my head at a blown UCL, to shaking my fist at Seattle for disrespectfully keeping so many other potential closers around to clutter up the bullpen. Didn’t they know they had Andrés Muñoz coming?

Muñoz may be part of a committee now but his skills might force the issue sooner rather than later. And if so, it’ll be on the strength of one of the game’s dirtiest sliders. The slider has a 26.9% SwStr% and Of his 15 strikeouts (44.1% K%), 13 have finished with a whiff against it.

It can even twist Wander in a pretzel:

His spot as the future closer might not be as ordained as Duran but Muñoz has the same level of elite stuff that deserves to be pitching in the ninth. A close watch should be kept on Seattle’s end-game approach because the more things weight to his side, the more a sub-10% rostered rate will rise. Seattle’s only save chance in the past week went to Drew Steckenrider, who ultimately blew it.

Nick Martinez, changeup

A 4.12 ERA from Martinez doesn’t seem impressive but only one of his four starts has gone poorly, allowing four earned runs on three homers in a loss to Atlanta. He’s allowed two or fewer runs in his other three starts, including against formidable opponents in the Dodgers and Giants.

Martinez has succeeded with a wicked changeup that has so far garnered a 26.3% SwStr% that is second only to Kyle Hendricks. The changeup was far different from the last time Martinez pitched in the majors in 2017, averaging 86 mph with average depth but significant horizontal movement (+3.4 inches vs average). Now the change of pace averages 80 mph, still getting 13% more break compared to average changeups but now has averaged 37.5 inches of drop, +2.7 inches better than average.

Here’s Trea Turner getting finished off by one for his second at-bat in a row:

The problem is that the Padres rotation is crowded when healthy, with only Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Sean Manaea guaranteed spots. And once Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger return, not to mention MacKenzie Gore, things look even more locked out for Martinez. However, things like “Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger are healthy” tend to be more ephemeral concepts so perhaps there will still be plenty of chances in store for Martinez.

At less than 5% rostered on Yahoo, Martinez will be easy to find if he stays in the rotation but for right now he’s slated for at least one more turn, scheduled to face the Marlins on Thursday. However, be aware that a matchup with Miami might not be the cakewalk it’s been in the past. Facing RHP in 2022, the Marlins have a .331 wOBA (4th), .336 xwOBA (t-9th), with a 23.5% K% (13th). They’ve also done well in the short sample against changeups from RHP (n=198), posting a .345 wOBA (4th). Counterpoint: who knows they’ll actually be fielding in three days because much like the Spanish Inquisition, no one expects a Miami fire-sale.

Josiah Gray, curveball

Like a Murphy Lee diss track, Josiah Gray and his curveball are right back to doing what they did over 70.2 IP in 2021, posting a 19.7% SwStr% that’s right around a 21.1% SwStr% in 2021, with a 48.0% Whiff% that’s virtually identical.

It’s rightly been his ideal finishing maneuver too, as 15 of Gray’s 31 strikeouts have ended with that handsome devil, hook:

More strikeouts are just more hop-skips away because while Gray’s success starts with the four-seamer, the development of his secondaries is what will take him to the next, and more consistent, level. He’d posted two good and two bad starts (4.05 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) heading into a tough matchup on Sunday with the Giants but passed with flying colors, allowing just one hit over six scoreless frames. Four walks and three strikeouts isn’t an ideal ratio but San Francisco has also been a top-10 offense versus RHP and it’s hard to complain about six shutout innings.

Gray now sits with a 3.12 ERA (3.93 FIP) over his first five starts, with a 28.7 K% but a 13.0% BB% will still need to be tamed if a 1.31 WHIP is going to stop being a liability. He’s only rostered around 50% on Yahoo (< 35% on ESPN) so he’ll certainly be around in a lot of leagues heading into another tough matchup with the Angels, who’ve posted a .349 wOBA (2nd) vs RHP. After that, he’ll face Houston at home before going on the road to Miami. Not exactly an easy row to hoe in the short-term but Gray has the strikeout skills to garner long-term success if he can reign in the walks.