The Starting Pitchers that Baffle the Rankers: The Top 100

Last week, I discussed which hitters us rankers most disagreed on based on our consensus top 300. Today I move on to the starting pitchers. Keep in mind that innings pitched plays a major role in valuations. Aside from the boost in both wins and strikeouts that come with more innings, the ratios have more of an effect. For example, an $8.16 Michael Pineda in 155 innings is worth $15.49 in 200 innings! Now it’s on to the head-scratchers.

Surprise, surprise, we cannot seem to agree on an elite arm returning from Tommy John surgery. Harvey was sensational in 2013, dramatically improving his control and showing even better swing and miss stuff than he did during his 2012 debut. Now the question is how many innings will he pitch, will his mid-to-high 90s velocity be there, will he lack control early on and how will the quality of his stuff, especially his slider, be affected?

Remember how I discussed above how important innings are to a starting pitcher’s value? Harvey is a perfect example. After reading the below tweet, I upped my Harvey projection from 160 to 180 innings, which pushed his ranking to 135th overall.

Sandy Alderson says no 215 innings for Matt Harvey, but reins won't be so tight. 200 innings possible "including playoffs."

— Adam Rubin (@AdamRubinESPN) February 20, 2015

Speaking of TJ surgery, Tanaka has managed to avoid needing such a procedure to repair a partially torn UCL in his right elbow. For now at least. In looking at the rankings, it’s clear that no one is expecting a fully healthy and similarly dominant season. But I am personally staying far, far away. Not only do I feel like his performance could suffer pitching with the injury, but the rest and rehab route seemingly rarely works out. Surgery might be inevitable, which is why I projected just 140 innings for him this season, easily resulting in the most pessimistic ranking of the bunch.

I’m not entirely sure what has led to the apparent underrating of Iwakuma. Even on the wrong side of age 30, he has upped his strikeout rate, while lowering his walk rate in each season in the Majors. His SIERA slipped below 3.00 last year. He induces an above average rate of ground balls. What am I missing?

I’m usually the pessimist when it comes to Gio, but now I’m apparently the second most optimistic. Questions about the health of his shoulder is really the only thing I could think of that is causing the rankings disagreement. Performance-wise, he has been rock solid and has continued to improve the one weakness in his game — his control.

Lynn lucked his way into a sub-3.00 ERA in 2014 thanks to an inflated LOB% and suppressed HR/FB rate. Does his ERA jump all the way up to his 3.84 SIERA or has he discovered a way to outperform his expected ERA metrics? His strikeout rate fell, will it rebound? Will the addition of Jason Heyward help keep his BABIP below the league average?

Samardzija departed the comforts of the National League, but at least moved to a pitcher friendly home park in Oakland. Now, he returns to the Windy City, this time to the South side of town. U.S. Cellular Field is one of the top hitting environments in baseball, so how much will the park wreak havoc on his ratios? For his career, he sports a HR/FB rate above the league average, just once posting a sub-10% mark. In a home park that boosts home runs, do those home run issues get even worse?