The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 852 – 2019 Breakouts Proving It

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September 17, 2020

09/17/20

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

FROM 2019 BREAKOUT TO 2020 ESTABLISHED STUD

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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themchughMember since 2019
5 years ago

Great point at the end of the episode about being more aggressive on guys and not getting “trapped” by ADP. Next year is the year to let the Verlander, Scherzer, Arrenado, Lindor guys slip just a little to get that guy who hasn’t hit the top of the development curve. Good job on the 2B deep dive with Hiura, but the store brands (Biggio, Lowe) are still better deals in ’21. Thanks!

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AnonMember since 2025
5 years ago
Reply to  themchugh

Not sure I agree on Arenado and Lindor but I took Scherzer in the 2nd round this year and I think he’s going to be a tough one next year. He hasn’t been bad and has pretty clearly been unlucky with ERA but there are just enough things that have slipped just a little bit that you have to consider them – K% down, BB% up, HR up, EV up, hard hit rate up, chase rate down. None have moved a lot, but all have moved just a little the wrong direction.

However, I think one of the tough things when evaluating next year is going to be how much you weight this season since it’s a shortened season (& that’s before you get to the whole issue of COVID restrictions like limited video monitoring in-game and playing in empty stadiums). If Scherzer had this 7 week stretch in the middle of a regular 6 month season where he was his usual self on both sides of it, you wouldn’t even notice. For as much as those numbers have all moved the wrong direction (albeit not much), he hasn’t lost any velo and his peripherals are still pretty much elite or nearly elite.

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