The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 710 – Finding 2H Gem SPs


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Approximately 41 minutes of joyous analysis.

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Some other candidates that come to mind: Tyler Mahle, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Pineda, Felix Pena, and Vince Velasquez.


I was totally in on VV as a possible rebound this year since he was kind of unlucky last year by xwOBA. He has great stuff, but his problem is he runs huge pitch counts and can’t go very deep into games. VV set a “record” last year for fewest IP for a guy making 30+ starts with 146.2. He didn’t even average 5 IP per start. As you might imagine, the top (or bottom depending on how you look at it) is dominated by recent pitchers with 6 of the top 10 coming since 2016 and only 1 before 2006, but Vince is leading the way by a lot. Next fewest after him was 151.2 IP for 2016 Chase Anderson (#3 BTW is Steven Matz last year with 154.0 IP. Matz is on pace to up it all the way to 156 IP this year)

You look at his game logs last year and you just see too many 5 IP/90 pitch games. He only once completed 7 IP. It’s pretty clear that the Phils are never going to let him throw 100+ pitches on any sort of regular basis and frankly, they’re kind of justified. He just gets crushed the 3rd time through the order. For his career, the 1st 2 times through his OPS against are .735 and .737 which are reasonable, but the 3rd time through it jumps to .919. The 5 times this year the Phils let him face a lineup the 3rd time he has given up a 1.933 OPS.

I’ve finally gone over to the side of “Vince needs a move to the pen”. Either that or he becomes a “bulk” guy in the new era of opener/bulk/others, where he can pitch 3-4 IP.