The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 553 – RankCast Fireyside Chat w/Nick Pollack
5/21/18
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Biggest Ranking Disputes
Nick Higher:
- Miles Mikolas (5:55)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (14:20)
- Jake Arrieta (23:15)
- Brief Reynaldo Lopez mention (40:00)
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Paul Higher:
- Tyler Skaggs (44:00)
- Junior Guerra (57:00)
- Tyson Ross (1:03:03)
Final Thoughts
- Is Jordan Lyles a thing? (1:18:16)
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Approximately 93 minutes of joyous analysis.
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Great podcast. Nick Pollack is a smart guy. I have to agree with Nick that the purchase price for pitchers is irrelevant – it’s a sunk cost. Also agree with Nick on Tyson Ross – all his periphs are much worse than the Tyson Ross in his prime. So instead of a 3.00 ERA 9 K/9 guy I am expecting a 3.75+ ERA, 8 K/9 player going forward. Still useful, but not a must start for me against top ten offenses (like Washington this week).
I must say its Nick’s pick and choosing of metrics that has made me stop listening to the Pitcherlist podcast. I know the podcast was in good humour as it should be it clearly hit a bit of nerve….
So you have the same outlook on your early round SP v. a waiver find like Ross? You just treat every SP the same after they’re on your roster? I call BS. I don’t buy it at all. What you paid absolutely plays a role in how your view and manage that player and my point is that if it starts to get hairy with Ross, it’s waaaayyy easier to move on than if Carlos Martinez or Jose Berrios start putting up 3 IP/6 ER duds.
I agree it is easier to cut waiver wire guys than early round picks but I don’t understand why the acquisition cost should be reflected in the rankings. If you are discussing what players will do rest of season why does the cost matter?
Nick’s pushback was the meltdown scenario for Ross and I’m saying that not *super*-relevant bc you’re likely to hit the ejector seat much sooner on a guy like him. So if you’re going to factor in the meltdown aspect of Ross into a ranking, my contention is that it should be mitigated or even outright canceled out by his cost because most fantasy managers won’t see the bottom with Ross because we’re not going to wait around and let him sink the ratios.
Paul, love your work. I agree with NBH and Nick though. I’m not sure why the price you pay and a pitcher’s rank are being conflated? I mean, I hear your argument, but I don’t think I agree. At best, it feels like a tiebreaker. Sure, maybe lower cost means you’re more likely to extract the best from someone (*maybe*). But otherwise, rankings should be a thought exercise in who the better pitcher will be going forward, no? Why is cost a material variable though, aside from the fact that cost will often positively correlate with upside/value?
I’m not saying you rank ppl *according* to cost, but if your primary problem w/some like Ross is that he flops, I’m saying it’ll never get to a full flop bc he’ll be cut before too much damage bc of what he cost and I just don’t believe that anyone plays this game w/out consideration to what a player cost them, whether it’s statistically “right” or not.
Sporer, love your takes but you are extremely contradicting here. You are discussing rest of season rankings but your sole argument for Tyson Ross is how he is currently pitching. Then, with other players like Eduardo Rodriguez you discount him due to his injury history. It doesn’t add up.
Best podcast ever. BRING THE CONTENTIOUSNESS.
This was tough to listen to. Heaping helpings of blatant disrespect by Sporer for his (amazingly patient) co-host, and a striking example of the sunk cost fallacy as part of his calculus for ranking pitchers. Yikes.
How is Tyson Ross a sunk cost fallacy? Wouldn’t that be if I was arguing that you must retain someone explicitly because of the high cost you paid on draft day? Btw, I’m sure you’ve cut all Archer, Tanaka, Goldy, Rizzo, and Ozuna shares since you strictly adhere to the sunk cost principles across all your leagues.
You do realize that trades exist in fantasy baseball, right? So someone that didn’t get Tyson Ross for *free* could attempt to *trade* for him & may be willing to pay a fairly high *price* based on your *ranking*. Also agree with TheDuck that you were very rude to Nick throughout the podcast by constantly interrupting & talking over him. I like the contentiousness though.
Building acquisition cost into a ranking of future performance is a textbook case of the sunk cost fallacy. If, rather, you are saying that your rankings are a reflection of how the player will be managed by a fantasy owner, then it seems like you and Nick are comparing apples and oranges.
But the bigger point here is that the sniping, snide comments, blatant disrespect, interruptions, and disregard for thoughtful rebuttals just made this a very rough 90 minutes. Disagreement is super useful in these discussions, but when it devolves into simply insulting the way your co-host does his analysis instead of listening to his description of that analysis, that utility has long since faded.
Duck – agree with your first paragraph. What is the point of the rankings? I realize its content and gets people talking but not sure its actionable information.
If Paul is looking more at a short-term time horizon (thought he mentioned 6-8 weeks on the podcast) .. from that standpoint Ross at 29 or whatever seems reasonable. Nick is more explicit in the first sentence what he is ranking (ROS).