The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 553 – RankCast Fireyside Chat w/Nick Pollack
by Paul Sporer
May 20, 2018
5/21/18
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Biggest Ranking Disputes
Nick Higher:
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- Miles Mikolas (5:55)
- Eduardo Rodriguez (14:20)
- Jake Arrieta (23:15)
- Brief Reynaldo Lopez mention (40:00)
Paul Higher:
- Tyler Skaggs (44:00)
- Junior Guerra (57:00)
- Tyson Ross (1:03:03)
Final Thoughts
- Is Jordan Lyles a thing? (1:18:16)
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Approximately 93 minutes of joyous analysis.
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Great podcast. Nick Pollack is a smart guy. I have to agree with Nick that the purchase price for pitchers is irrelevant – it’s a sunk cost. Also agree with Nick on Tyson Ross – all his periphs are much worse than the Tyson Ross in his prime. So instead of a 3.00 ERA 9 K/9 guy I am expecting a 3.75+ ERA, 8 K/9 player going forward. Still useful, but not a must start for me against top ten offenses (like Washington this week).
I must say its Nick’s pick and choosing of metrics that has made me stop listening to the Pitcherlist podcast. I know the podcast was in good humour as it should be it clearly hit a bit of nerve….
So you have the same outlook on your early round SP v. a waiver find like Ross? You just treat every SP the same after they’re on your roster? I call BS. I don’t buy it at all. What you paid absolutely plays a role in how your view and manage that player and my point is that if it starts to get hairy with Ross, it’s waaaayyy easier to move on than if Carlos Martinez or Jose Berrios start putting up 3 IP/6 ER duds.
I agree it is easier to cut waiver wire guys than early round picks but I don’t understand why the acquisition cost should be reflected in the rankings. If you are discussing what players will do rest of season why does the cost matter?
Nick’s pushback was the meltdown scenario for Ross and I’m saying that not *super*-relevant bc you’re likely to hit the ejector seat much sooner on a guy like him. So if you’re going to factor in the meltdown aspect of Ross into a ranking, my contention is that it should be mitigated or even outright canceled out by his cost because most fantasy managers won’t see the bottom with Ross because we’re not going to wait around and let him sink the ratios.
Paul, love your work. I agree with NBH and Nick though. I’m not sure why the price you pay and a pitcher’s rank are being conflated? I mean, I hear your argument, but I don’t think I agree. At best, it feels like a tiebreaker. Sure, maybe lower cost means you’re more likely to extract the best from someone (*maybe*). But otherwise, rankings should be a thought exercise in who the better pitcher will be going forward, no? Why is cost a material variable though, aside from the fact that cost will often positively correlate with upside/value?
I’m not saying you rank ppl *according* to cost, but if your primary problem w/some like Ross is that he flops, I’m saying it’ll never get to a full flop bc he’ll be cut before too much damage bc of what he cost and I just don’t believe that anyone plays this game w/out consideration to what a player cost them, whether it’s statistically “right” or not.