The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 483 – Whit’s Too Legit to Sit
7/29/17
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Leading Off: Question of the Day
- Who is the biggest name to move this weekend? (5:10)
Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play (6:45)
- Brad Ziegler, not Kyle Barraclough expected to close in MIA
- Brent Suter dominates the Cubs
Strategy Section: Hitters – Last 30 days stats (13:00)
- Rafael Devers – 1 HR, 0 SB, .250 AVG, .940 OPS in 12 PA so far
- Whit Merrifield – 5 HR, 8 SB, .324, .958 in 105 PA
- Steven Souza Jr. – 7 HR, 3 SB, .279, .937 in 86 PA (22nd HR today)
- Alex Bregman – 2 HR, 3 SB, .303, .937 in 76 PA
Deeper leagues: (20:50)
- Jose Reyes – 3 HR, 3 SB, .306, .895 in 85 PA
- Freddy Galvis – 4 HR, 5 SB, .266, .795 in 94 PA
- Nick Williams – 4 HR, .306, .916 in 85 PA
- Wilmer Difo – 2 HR, 2 SB, .370, .946 in 54 PA
- Cameron Rupp – 5 HR, .368, 1.242 in 38 PA
- Kurt Suzuki – 7 HR, .395, 1.384 in 38 PA
Two-Start Arms
- Start These Heavily-Owned Guys? (27:45)
- Cole Hamels – SEA, at MIN
- Felix Hernandez – at TEX, at KC
- Alex Cobb – at HOU, MIL
- Jeff Samardzija – at OAK, ARI
- Mike Fiers – TB, TOR
- Kenta Maeda – at ATL, at NYM
- Dylan Bundy – KC, DET
- Steven Matz – at COL, LAD
- Pick These Guys Up? (32:00)
- Charlie Morton – TB, TOR
- Mike Foltynewicz – at PHI, MIA
- Patrick Corbin – at CHC, at SF
- Ian Kennedy – at BAL, SEA
- DEEP: (34:00)
- Jose Urena – WAS, at ATL
- Antonio Senzatela – NYM, PHI
- Paul Blackburn – SF, at LAA
- Homer Bailey – at PIT, STL
Wrap-up (39:00)
Events
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Approximately 47 minutes of joyous analysis.
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These Devers ’17/Moncada ’16 comps are getting a bit tired. Is it possible that Devers comes up and struggles? Of course. But we already know that he’s not going to struggle to the extent that Moncada did in 2016.
Moncada spent a half season in low A; then a half season in high A in 2016. Then he was moved up to AA in 2016 and was rocking a 31% K rate in 210 PA at the time of his promotion to MLB. He then came up and promptly struck out 12 times in 20 PA (60%), with a 17% SwStr.
Devers has had a much more gradual promotion schedule, spending FULL seasons in both low A and high A in 2014 and 2015 respectively. He started this year in AA and had struck out in 18% of his 320 PA across AA-AAA at the time of his promotion to MLB, a number which is consistent with all of his prior stops in the minors. He’s now come up to MLB and struck out 5 times in 19 plate appearances, with a 7% SwStr.
There is literally no evidence at all to suggest that he’s suddenly going to start whiffing at 50%+ rates like Moncada did. None. Zero. So let’s all stop making that lazy comp just because they were both Red Sox prospects.