The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 408 – Mailbag Episode #1
12/3/16
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- J.A. Happ, Chris Tillman, Jose Ramirez, Ender Inciarte from David
- Extensions, Ryan Braun, Travis Jankowski from Brad
- David Peralta from Willie
- Tyler Skaggs from Brian
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Approximately 28 minutes of joyous analysis.
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Paul, Thanks for addressing my Skaggs question. We are on the same page!
Hey Paul,
I enjoyed the episode on the way in to work this morning. I think it’s a great way to open the door on some individual player discussions and I’ve got some for you to consider. If you don’t think it’s worthy of the air (since it’s such a long question), I’d appreciate just a quick comment here with the names of the players you’d prefer in the below scenario if you can spare the time.
I’m in a fairly eclectic keeper league that is entering its third year. It’s a 10 keeper league with keeper cost being draft slot plus one each year. So a player kept in the 10th costs a 9th next year and an 8th after that for as long as you want to keep them. A 1st round pick costs a 1st and a 2nd the next year and a 1st, 2nd and 3rd in year 3. Keeps the top talent available early in the draft and emphasizes building from the farm and late round bets that pay off.
We have a 5 man minor league roster as well. Keep for free as long as they still have rookie eligibility. When they are promoted you can keep in the 15th with the cost moving up each year from there like with drafted players. The difference with prospects is that keeping multiple prospects promoted in the same year bumps the cost down, not up, and they are kept in order of debut. So prospect 1 in the 15th, then prospect 2 in the 16th, etc. All prospect values defer to major leaguers in the same rounds, and move (again) down, not up when there is a conflict. So there’s a heavy emphasis on prospect value.
Scoring is OBP, SLG, HR, R, and Net SB on offense. QS, Saves, K, BB/9, H/9 on the pitching side. See? Eclectic. Sorry for the long setup, but I thought it was necessary for the question.
I have most of my keepers set and I sold out my 2017 draft (slow draft) to try and win last year. I finished with the best record and ended up second in the playoffs, so I think it was worth it in the end. I have very few early picks in this upcoming draft, though, so I’m mostly looking to set up my keeper core for 2018 which means making late round bets and stock piling minor league draft picks and assets.
Current keepers are Rick Porcello in the 8th round, Jose Quintana in the 9th, Michael Wacha (10th), Andrew Heaney (13th), Blake Swihart (14th), Kris Bryant (15th), Jon Gray (16th), Kyle Schwarber (17th), Corey Seager (18th), Jake Lamb (19th).
I also have the option to keep Byng-ho Park as a promoted prospect or Derek Dietrich in the 19th instead of Lamb. I could also keep Mike Leake in the 24th. If I keep Park, he would take Lamb’s spot in the 19th or I could keep him instead of Wacha and he’d slot in in the 20th round. Dietrich would have to bump Lamb or I would have to move one of the two up to the 12th round to keep both, which doesn’t seem worth it. I do have the option to trade away whatever I don’t keep.
So would you keep Wacha in the 10th and Lamb in the 19th over Lamb in the 19th and Park in the 20th? I know Minnesota sort of jerked Park around last year and his power potential is still pretty big even if he’s looking like he may never be a terribly high OBP hitter. We are sort of double counting power with SLG and HR, so Park might be worth more to me than Wacha. Or would you find a way to work Leake into the mix instead of either Park or Dietrich? Would I be better off with Leake at 24 than Wacha at 10?
I’m leaning toward Wacha, Park, Dietrich and Leake being more valuable to me as trade chips, but I’m open to being convinced to go in another direction.
My minor league roster is currently Rafael Devers, Yandy Diaz and Dillon Tate with two open spots. I have the 5th, 6th and 13th picks in the first round of the prospect draft, though I’m hoping to use those picks to maneuver to the top of that round to grab Lourdes Gurriel.
Again, I apologize for the length and I look forward to your thoughts!
Damian
Quick follow up: This is a 16 team league with 25 man rosters.
I know you were looking for feedback on the mailbag episodes. I love it!
Yup. I love the mailbag stuff too. And the tactical discussions you have. Both are under-discussed topics on baseball pods. Keep up the great work!