The Sixth Annual Shorties

Welcome back to what was recently named the #2 fantasy award show in the nation according to people and pets who live in my house. Don’t act like you’re not impressed.

We’ve already handed out our prestigious awards at catcher, first base, and second base, so let’s keep it moving around the horn. But first, since children need to be taken to the library, I’m afraid that you’re going to have to come up with your own dated Fifty Cent references – I simply have no time.

Ja-Ja-Ja G-Unit – It’s the Shorties!

And the Shortie for “But the Children!, Which May or May Not Also Be the Title of a 90s Lifetime Movie Starring T.V’s Judith Light” goes to…These Guys!

Seven hitters in early NFBC drafts (min 50 PA in 2023) will be 23 years old or younger when spring training starts and four are shortstops – Elly De La Cruz (21 ADP), Gunnar Henderson (29), Anthony Volpe (143), and Ezequiel Tovar (199), with the reigning king of the position, Bobby Witt Jr. (3), only missing our arbitrary cutoff by months. And that’s saying nothing of prospect sensation (and current title-holder for the player most guaranteed to make you feel super old), Jackson Holliday (191), who has been taken as high as #133 through the first 17 drafts of the NFBC season.

We spoke last season about how the position seemed shallow but not necessarily in a traditional sense, where it might be easy for everyone to grab a fine starter, the cliff past the top-12 to 15ish made it such that not taking two of the top guys could leave you very vulnerable to injuries given the state what the wire was likely to be, a lesson I’d learned the previous season by painting myself into a fantasy corner by drafting a thin MI squad.

But with the aforementioned injection of youth headed to the position, things are not only deeper but also a lot spicier, with some fantasy toolsets and opinions on said tools, as electric as they are divisive. Here are the first 25 shortstops taken in early drafts:

Now that’s a spicy meatball. Shortstop now allows you all sorts of options for mixing and matching tools, risks, and ultimately, value. There is an elite upper crust, multiple former and current hype trains, boring values, and potential bouncebackers. Not to mention multiple guys who could cruise to a +40% K% vs LHP…It’s got everything!

And the Shortie for “Ockham Has Some Questions About the Early Discount on Thairo Estrada” goes to…Thairo Estrada!

Estrada’s final line in 2023 looked a lot like it did in 2022, finishing as the #76 hitter (non-catchers) a year after he was #50:

Even without being what he’d quite been the year before, Estrada still easily outearned his 165 ADP in 2023 but his price has only risen slightly for 2024, with an early 157 ADP. That’s a fine price by itself and most would probably be happy if he again ended up a top-75 hitter. But we also just can’t ignore the giant broken wrist-shaped hole in the middle of his season.

Estrada broke his wrist on July 2 and returned on August 5 but like most hitters returning from wrist injuries, things were not  quite what they were:

Whereas Estrada’s final lines look similar, his pre-injury numbers were even better, outpacing nearly all of his previous roto rates. And remember that Estrada finished as a top-50 hitter in 2022 but with just 541 PA – even missing over a month, he still nearly eclipsed that, easily pacing for 600+ PA.

The book on Estrada is small but keeps growing in a positive direction, with most of the parts not written in broken-wristeese telling the tale of a high-floor fantasy star who still has some upside given a full season of games. For a post-150 ADP? Yes, please.

And the Shortie for “The Reports of Trea Turner’s Death Were Greatly Exaggerated” goes to…Trea Turner!

Ahh, remember the great Turner Panic of April ’23? It was quite the doozie, as the now in his late-20’s former fantasy star was clearly washed after starting the first two months of the season slashing .236/.280/.371 over 243 PA, with his biggest capital crime coming from the mere seven stolen bases.

And then Turner emerged from BABIP hell and proceeded to go full-Hamburglar in June, stealing 11 SB while slashing .279/.353/.413 over 101 PA. Against all odds, it turns out he was still really good. Even with his no-good, rotten start, Turner was still the #54 hitter in the first half and the #13 in the second half, finishing #18 for the season.

Considering all of the other options, maybe Turner isn’t worth a top-five pick right now but he clearly still has those performances in his bag and those taking the discount this season might end up with an incredible value.

And the Shortie for “I’m Starting to Think There Might Just Be Something to This Whole xwOBA Thingy” goes to…Bobby Witt Jr.!

After finishing as the #5 hitter in 2023, Witt Jr. doesn’t need anyone else tooting his fantasy horn but there could’ve been even more gravy given how much his value was held down by a .257 AVG (and .316 wOBA) in the first half. But that .257 AVG came with a .290 xBA, while the .316 wOBA was backed by a .368 xwOBA. In the second half, x came back knocking, with Witt Jr. posting a .301 AVG (.308 xBA) and .378 wOBA (.380 xwOBA). Super weird!

What Witt Jr. showed in 2023 (with a .276 AVG) already makes him worthy of his top-five price and if you’re betting on something nearer +.290 AVG, then he could end up in contention for the #1 overall hitter (non-Acuña division.

And the Shortie for “Maybe Bo Bichett is Just a Top-15ish Hitter – And That’s Okay! goes to…Bo Bichette!

I’m loving the early ADP spread (32 ADP, min: 17, max: 42) over the first 11 drafts for Bichette, as the meta seems to finally be giving up on trying to force him into being a top-10 option after back-to-back mediocre seasons (relative to price) following his 2021 breakout when he finished as the #2 hitter.

Bichette and his first-round ADP finished as just the #49 hitter in 2023 after an injury-riddled second half that saw him garner just 199 PA as the #149 hitter. But the whole “injury-riddled” part is probably pretty important, with Bichette missing time for thumb, knee, and quad injuries. The first half was a different story, as Bichette was the #16 hitter headed into the break, also known as “exactly where he finished in 2022”.

A healthy Bichette has a balanced, high-floor skill-set and is a lock to push 700 PA; hell, a banged-up Bichette still managed 601 PA in 2023 and the older I get, the more I covet PA monsters in my early picks. If you’re managing expectations of what he actually is, instead of what he did in 2021, then Bichette is an easy bargain outside of the top 20 and an absolute steal the more he drops toward the 30s.

And the Shortie for “The ADP Disrespect Given to Ezequiel Tovar is Appalling!” goes to…Ezequiel Tovar!

Listen, I get that he’s still really young but a 200-ish ADP is absolutely ridiculous. Tovar’s power and speed numbers (14 HR, 6 SB) may not jump off of the page but 91 R + 84 RBI don’t grow on trees, and slashing .276/.315/.438 isn’t anything to sneeze at. Especially at his current price – I mean, come on!

Oh wait; this is so embarrassing. It looks like those numbers listed above are what Tovar’s numbers would’ve been if he’d played all of his games at home. And I don’t love the chances of that scenario coming to fruition in 2024 – but Rob Manfred has fooled me before.

So, assuming he plays half of his games on the road, we should probably point out any differences:

Ahh, so basically the same things we see from most Coors hitters. Tovar’s power and speed rates may have been a little higher on the road but his getting on base cratered, as did, predictably, his per-PA rates for runs and RBI. But racking runs and ribbies aren’t just about your abilities, you also need a little help from your friends.

In a totally unrelated sidenote, here’s a live look-in at Colorado’s current roster:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will the above get better? Sure, technically. Colorado will make a couple of interesting signings in the offseason that will get us all hot and bothered for the Coors effect potentially driving a fantasy bounceback for some embattled veteran. It’s coming; we all know it. But we also know (because we’re talking about Colorado) that any signing will in no way be “going for it” type moves and will instead be “man, hopefully, we can build enough value to flip these guys for slightly more than we paid” type moves. And that attitude does not a sustainably good offense make.

With all that being said…I’ll still probably end up with a lot of Tovar on my rosters just like I did last year, whether streaming from the wire or my own bench. Again, it’s about expectations and cost. I’m not trying to draft Tovar as my starter in 2024 just like I only used him as my week-to-week starter last season when forced into it by injuries. But his current price should allow you to draft him as a benchy hitter that you can just ride at home, especially in shallower leagues (12-team and under) where dropping him before a road trip won’t guarantee he’ll be picked up. And then just rinse/repeat. Easy-peasy.

And the Shortie for “Oh, So It Looks Like This Will Be the Year I Load Up On a Non-Ron Swanson” goes to…Dansby Swanson!

Ahh, the cyclical nature of fantasy pricing goes round and round, never changing:

1. Player has a monster season after a low ADP
2. The Crowd pushes the price way up, paying for last year’s production
3. Player has good year but not enough to justify cost
4. Crowd feels burnt, acts like a spurned lover
5. ADP craters

After a 2022 campaign that saw him come in as a top-10 hitter, Swanson jumped to an 83 ADP in 2023 but only finished as the #86 hitter. And now, between his 2023 underperformance and the aforementioned bevy of young, hot options, Swanson has dropped back past where he probably should be drafted. And thus the cycle continues.

So, where did his roto go wrong? Swanson’s 22 HR were down from 25 HR in 2022 but his per-PA rate didn’t drop dramatically, going from .036 HR per PA last year to .034 HR/PA this season. And he finished strong on the power front, with a career-best .044 HR/PA in the second half. But the first big cliff on value was his R+RBI, which cratered both on total and per-PA rates. Call me crazy but this probably has something to do with going from an elite Atlanta offense to a more average Chicago one.

And given the rule changes, it might have been tempting to again count on the 18 SB he pulled in 2023 but Swanson broke hearts by going right back to the 10ish SB guy he’s always been. But the final shovelful on his 2023 value belongs to a .244 AVG that was down from a near-best .277 AVG – which also “just happened” to drop after his BABIP dropped back to it’s career norms:

Okay, lean in folks:

I think that (looking around)…Dansby Swanson is generally going to be around a .250 hitter but one that can reach the heights of the .270’s when he gets good batted-ball luck. Shocker!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No, not you, The Shockmaster. Never you.

If you believe the Cubs offense will improve (and I do) then Swanson could again push 180 R+RBI with 20+ HR and double-digit bags. And if his every other year BABIP cycle continues (and we know how predictable that is!) then Swanson is due for one of his .275 AVG years. Plus, his price is already right but might get a lot better in any given draft just due to circumstances; IE where Swanson is generally being drafted is a clear tier(s) after the glut of SS hotness most drafts will see in the top 100. And that might give some of your opponent’s shortie fatigue, allowing him to drop even further.

Considering all of the above, Swanson could again be a draft-day darling; or, at least, a draft-day “got really good value late that allowed me to not overspend on the position early”-ling.

That is, as long as he avoids skim milk, hunts fish only for sport, and cultivates a manly musk.