The Process is Now Available

The 2023 digital editions (full and appendix) of The Process are now available to be purchased (the paperback is off to the printers and will be available in two to four weeks). These editions are packed with new information.

The full book contains all the original work including information on:

• Detailed analysis of how to use industry projections and when they should be modified.
• How to use valuation systems to turn projections into rankings and dollar values.
• Take advantage of industry biases and norms to pull as much value out of a draft and auction.
• Groundbreaking studies on when breakouts happen, how past performance predicts future success, when valuable free agents appear, behavioral analysis of the best NFBC teams, all analyzed and presented so owners can take advantage of this information.
• Pages of hints and secrets to accumulate standing gains during the season.
• Rookie variance study looking at the accuracy of rookie versus non-rookie projections
• Comparison of the SGP and z-score valuations system that highlights the differences between the two systems for both hitters and pitchers
• Study comparing the cost to acquire closers and comparable starters via FAAB
• Study on the extent to which previous fantasy productions levels indicate future success
• Weekly valuation study analyzing the benefits of valuing players on a weekly basis instead of only on an annual basis

Besides the standard information, there are two notable additions to this 2023 edition of The Process, an analysis of what led to success in the 2022 NFBC Main Event and a detailed explanation of how managers should be handling the effects of the 2023 MLB rule changes. Here are all the changes to this year’s edition.

• Foreword by John Pausma – It’s an honor to have an NFBC Hall of Famer share his thoughts and write the introduction to this book. John may be the most agile fantasy manager of all time, having won 70 leagues across 11 different formats, including two overall championships.
• Our Goals – Minor new introduction segment about our thoughts on the importance of drafting versus in-season management.
• Projecting Holds – Updated saves + holds table for 2022 results. on Save Totals from good relievers. Added table of win totals for best saves + holds players.
• Team-based Platoons – Study on hitters who were platooned in 2022.
• Young Starting Pitcher IP Increases – New study about the increase in innings pitched observed for pitchers 26 years old or younger.
• Undrafted Starting Pitcher Breakout Traits – Study to identify traits of useful starting pitchers acquired from the waiver wire during the 2021 and 2022 seasons.
• Hitter Injury Risk – Minor additions. Added note about the effect of cumulative injuries on players.
• Historic Results for Closers – Updated tables to include the 2022 season.
• Demotion of Struggling Hitters – Updated research on which struggling hitters were demoted and when.
• Super Two Deadline – Updated estimated Super-2 dates.
• Specific Bidding Strategies – Added graphs for 2022 FAAB results.
• Hints for Specific Leagues – Brand new section with bulleted quick tips and hints for draft-and-hold leagues, NFBC leagues with in-season moves, and 12-team/shallower leagues.
• Rotisserie Capture Rates – New study comparing MLB statistics against rotisserie leagues’ ability to capture those statistics. Managers should not only consider changes in the MLB landscape, but also their ability to roster those statistics.
• Starting Pitcher Usage – New study of MLB pitcher usage and the likelihood of a pitcher earning a win based upon their average pitch count.
• Saves Landscape – New study about MLB saves landscape, how saves are more spread and difficult to capture, and how capture rate changes over the months of the season.
• Effect of the National League Designated Hitter – Quick retrospective analysis about how the addition of the DH in the National League affected the rotisserie hitter pool.
• Analyzing 2022 NFBC Main Event Success – New study analyzing FAAB, catcher, stolen base diversification, hitter streaming, pitcher streaming, save accumulation, middle reliever usage, and bench composition strategies of the best and worst NFBC Main Event teams. Also, analysis of curious questions like Colorado hitter and pitcher usage, Ohtani’s effect, and MLB team performance. Finally, analysis of which hitters and pitchers appeared to have the most effect on successful and poor-performing teams.
• Appendix A – Effects of MLB Rule Changes – Detailed walkthrough of how managers should be accounting for the four main MLB rule changes for the upcoming 2023 season. Sections include the MLB schedule change, infield shift rules, pitch clock changes, and the rules expected to result in increased stolen bases.
• Appendix B – Shift Ban BABIP Changes – New appendix showing our estimated increases in BABIP given the new MLB shift rule.
• Appendix C – Pitcher pERA Sorted Alphabetically – Includes new description of pERA and how to utilize it.
• Appendix E – Historical Minor and Major League Hitter Platoon Splits – Updated for 2022 data. Added historic minor league data for use on younger players.

For those who have purchased the full edition in the past, just the appendix is available at a lower cost.  The contents of the appendix are:

• Appendix A – Effects of MLB Rule Changes
• Part 1 – The Schedule Change
• Part 2 – Banning the Infield Shift
• Part 3 – Pitch Clock Effects on Pitchers
• Part 4 – Stolen Base Increase
• Appendix B – Shift Ban BABIP Changes
• Appendix C – Pitcher pERA Sorted Alphabetically
• Appendix D – Pitcher pERA Ranking
• Appendix E – Historical Hitter OPS Splits
• Appendix F – Standings Gain Points for Different League Types
• Appendix G – Average League Standings

Finally, here is a peek at a few of the new additions.

First, we step through all the capture rates of the various stats like pitcher Wins, in this instance.

The major piece of information from this table is that more pitchers, starters and relievers, are spreading out the same number of wins. Fantasy managers need to be on their toes and continue to churn their roster.

Another major addition was the players on winning and losing teams. For example, here are the most rostered pitchers on losing teams.

The big three starters who cost their managers were Lucas Giolito, José Berríos, and Lance Lynn. Trying to find ways to avoid these landmines can be a huge boon. Also, a good number of reliever specs and Rockies pitchers populate the list.

Finally, we dive into the new rule changes.

No … I’m not going to give away the formula for free but it and all the expected player adjustments are available in the appendix.

Thanks to everyone who bought a copy in the past and is considering buying one of the editions this year (link).