The Overworked Twins Bullpen

A chronically overworked bullpen experienced some considerable hiccups in 2014, as the Minnesota Twins saw the undoing of eighth-inning man Jared Burton as well as a late-season bout of struggles for closer Glen Perkins.

Perkins’ woes coincide pretty much directly to an arm issue that cost him a good chunk of September, but also provide a reminder that your great closer almost always already has one foot somewhat out the door.

Only three bullpens in baseball threw more innings than the Twins in 2014 — the Rockies, Cubs and Angels. No ‘pen struck out fewer batters than the Twins at 6.7 per 9. Worse yet was that the unit had the third-worst groundball rate at 40.1 percent. Sure, that’s OK in a big park, but not if you don’t have good outfielders, and not particularly if you don’t strike anybody out.

The Twins have become strangely married to relievers who, quite frankly, aren’t elite in today’s game. While the average MLB relief corps fanned 8.5 batters per 9 last year, the Twins lagged nearly two strikeouts behind. Guys like Brian Duensing — by all accounts a durable pitcher who can typically get lefties out — get deep into arbitration while guys readily available can do a similar job. On the other hand, teams like Kansas City shuttle guys like Kelvin Herrera (11.4 K/9 in 2013) back and forth from the minor leagues. In today’s game, I really don’t think there’s an excuse to have an ‘eh’ bullpen.

Credit the club for seeing how the game is trending and addressing it — even if it was in a weird way. The Twins loaded up on relievers in the 2014 draft. That seems like an odd strategy, but at the same time given the attrition of picks after the first round or two, maybe going with high-ceiling, quick-moving arms isn’t the worst thing? It’ll make for a fascinating case study.

Nevertheless, guys like Nick Burdi and Jake Reed should find themselves on the scene pretty soon. Burdi throws a bit harder — reportedly reaching triple digits at times — while Reed still has plenty of cheddar himself. Certainly velocity isn’t everything, but the Twins were third-worst in average reliever four-seamer velocity via PITCHf/x at 91.8 mph. When there’s a lack of velocity, fly balls and bats not being missed, a mess surely can’t be far behind. That is, if left unaltered.

One huge thing to note that’ll be hard to gauge right now is how new manager Paul Molitor will use his bullpen. Just keep that in mind. He seems to be more apt to playing matchups than his predecessor was, however.

Here’s how the Twins bullpen plots out at the outset, and starting from the back:

The Locks
CL Glen Perkins
SU Casey Fien
LHRP Brian Duensing
LHRP Caleb Thielbar
RHRP Tim Stauffer

Perkins struggled badly in September (just one strikeout in 26 batters, 13.50 ERA, 1045 OPS against), but that was chalked up to nerve problems and a forearm strain. He’s apparently full go this spring. Fien also took a step back, with his whiff rate tumbling over three batters per 9. He was still an effective reliever — and ultimately took Burton’s setup role — but he faded badly with 8.10 and 8.59 ERAs in August and September, respectively. Duensing is little more than a decent LOOGY whom the Twins inexplicably keep around at relatively expensive rates. It might be crazy talk, but I think Logan Darnell could do similarly well for the minimum. Thielbar is a decent lefty but nothing extraordinarily exciting. As for Stauffer, the Twins seem to be hoping to get a couple months of good use out of him before flipping him for something in July. That’s just my diagnosis. Perkins is the guy to own here. Fien is the stealth guy, and quite frankly the third option for saves is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. If it gets to that point, it hardly matters anymore for fantasy purposes.

The Second Tier (solid shot to make the bullpen)
RHP Mike Pelfrey
RHP Alex Meyer
RHP Trevor May
LHP Tommy Milone
RHRP Ryan Pressly
RHRP Michael Tonkin

This bunch might be more fun than the top tier. Pelfrey as a reliever has some real potential. He’s flashed high-end velocity in small bursts with decent secondaries and a penchant for grounders. Put that together in a relief role and you might have something. I’m serious. Meyer, May and Milone are just here in the event that they miss out on the rotation. I can see Pelfrey, May and Milone hanging around if they aren’t the No. 5 starter. Meyer? Not as much. Pressly and Tonkin have both been pretty good in limited big league stints, and don’t have a ton left to prove in the minors. Tonkin throws hard and has decent offspeed stuff, and was at one time believed to be a future closer candidate. Pressly throws pretty hard too, but doesn’t seem to have raw, overpowering stuff. He’s a nice front-end bullpen guy if he finds his way north. In this bunch, you probably own Meyer for his rotation potential. May is probably a streamer if he pitches like he did in September. Milone might be a low-end streamer too. Everyone else is a “wait and see” type. Watch Pelfrey, though.

The Third Tier (longshots)
RHRP J.R. Graham
LHRP A.J. Achter
LHRP Logan Darnell
RHRP Lester Oliveros
RHRP Stephen Pryor
LHRP Aaron Thompson
RHRP Mark Hamburger

There isn’t a ton to see here. Graham is a Rule-5 guy from Atlanta who has seen his stock tumble considerably. Achter and Darnell are swingman candidates, but don’t have particularly high ceilings. Thompson is a spare lefty. Oliveros had a nice season at Triple-A but has gotten roughed up each time he’s come up. He’s got a really nice, live arm though. True story: Pryor’s wife got pissed at me on Twitter when I suggested he’d been struggling at Triple-A. The dude walked nearly a batter an inning, though he finished a lot better than he started after the trade. Hamburger is a local boy on the comeback trail after his career was derailed by some bad decision-making. He probably has a much better shot than I am giving him here. He’s got a good arm.

The Kids (keep an eye on ‘em)
RHRP Nick Burdi
RHRP Jake Reed

Simply put, both these guys throw gas. One, or maybe both of these guys should find themselves at Target Field in 2015. Perkins is still the man around those parts, but don’t be shocked if they throw higher-leverage innings relatively quickly. They’re stealth candidates.