The NFBC Unauctioned — Building an Offense

Last week, I built a $14 offense using only $1 players from the NFBC average auction values starting March 15. The following day, I shared my $9 pitching staff. One commenter asked my thoughts on Taijuan Walker, who I realized wasn’t even rostered in any of the 8 leagues, even for a buck. So I completely forgot about him and hadn’t even considered those not purchased in any leagues. Commenter Johnnie T suggested I perform the same exercise, but this time only select from players not rostered in any of the auctions. Another fake draft?! Sure! There are now nine auctions run since March 15, so this 14-player offense will be solely composed of hitters who failed to be bought in any of them.

Yuck! But interestingly, I was actually able to buy three more projected stolen bases here versus my $14 offense. Of course, that came at the expense of literally every other category.

For this exercise, I was all about gambling on upside. I wasn’t interested in the undervalued veteran who projects to earn $5. Instead, I generally opted for the super young guys who could earn $15…or stink up the joint en route to my (imaginary) league’s free agent pool.

As you could imagine, it was hard enough selecting two catchers for $1 each, so it was even more challenging to find two that weren’t even bought in any auction. Tony Wolters can’t hit, but he has the benefit of calling Coors Field home, which means he’s unlikely to kill your average like the majority of unrostered catchers would. Martin Maldonado should earn the majority of the playing time in Houston and he does have some power.

Ryan O’Hearn burst onto the scene in 2018, hitting 12 homers in just 149 at-bats (a 48-homer pace over 600 ABs), but flopped last season, limping to a weak .278 wOBA. A hot spring training may have locked up the first base job for him, which was important to do as it was conceivable that Ryan McBroom, or some other unknown character, would win the job. We know he has power, is willing to take a walk, and doesn’t swing and miss much more than the league average. It’s a good skill set to bet on a rebound.

Remember what I said about ignoring veterans for this activity? The unuactioned third base crop was ugly, so I settled on Todd Frazier as one of my few exceptions. Frazier heads to the Rangers, who will play in a less hitter friendly venue, though I’m guessing it will still increase offense. He should play every day he’s healthy and not hitting exceptionally poorly and hit in the middle of the lineup.

I love to see a young hitter struggle, get demoted, dominate Triple-A, and then return. Often times, that demotion ends up serving as a wake up call and results in changes that get carried back to the Majors. This is precisely what happened with Jeimer Candelario, save for the rebound after returning to the Majors (he posted a .339 wOBA after returning). During his trip to the minors, he posted a .426 wOBA and his highest HR/FB rate by far of 21.4%. Really, all his underlying metrics looked excellent. It’s anyone’s guess whether he’ll be able to carry over that performance and break out in the Majors, but the skills are there somewhere.

On my $14 offense, I bought Dee Gordon with the idea that Shed Long Jr. wasn’t necessarily guaranteed the every day second base job. Now I’m hedging, because I actually do like Long, even if what I said previously remains true. Long owns power (double digit HR/FB rates at nearly every stop in his career) and speed (19 steals in 2018), is willing to take a walk, and doesn’t swing and miss at an inflated rate. Sounds like a potential all-around fantasy contributor.

It was always said that J.P. Crawford figured to be a better real life player than fantasy one. The projections confirm that he isn’t exactly appealing with a bit of power, a touch of speed, and a poor batting average. But I love his knowledge of the strike zone, as he swings at pitches outside the zone far less often than the league, post a better than average SwStk%, and has amazingly posted double digit walk rates at every professional spot, except for a 68 plate appearance stint at Triple-A in 2018. Last, he added muscle and made some changes to his stance and swing this offseason. If he does indeed break out and you’re searching for an explanation, this is it.

Yeah, Isan Díaz was terrible in his cup of coffee with the Marlins last year, but you can’t ignore his 26 homers in 377 at-bats with a 28.3% HR/FB rate at Triple-A before his promotion. Impressively, he combined that power breakout with a reduction in strikeout rate, and he has continued to walk at a double digit clip. There aren’t a whole lot of middle infielders, especially coming for free in fantasy leagues, with this type of power upside.

JaCoby Jones seemingly feels boring now and has been a batting average killer throughout his short career. But I’m a sucker for power/speed guys, and Jones is very much that. Taking his career totals and extrapolating to just 600 at-bats, he has given us about a 17/17 season. Strikeouts are still a problem, but he has dramatically reduced his SwStk% and now it sits right around the league average. We’ll see if he could translate that improvement into a better strikeout rate.

I still love me some Franchy Cordero. I was a big fan heading into 2018 as he was looking to win playing time in a crowded Padres outfield. While he’s still not assured significant playing time, there are few hitters with his mammoth power potential. He even possesses some speed too! Having missed most of last year to injury, it’s hard to guess what he’s capable of. But the potential is tantalizing.

I’ve written about D.J. Stewart recently and noted that the delayed season will now give him a chance to be ready for opening day and perhaps even win a starting outfielder job. He was a popular sleeper heading into 2019 and still owns power and some speed.

I refuse to give up on Lewis Brinson, as there’s that power/speed potential once again. It’s now been about a full season’s worth of plate appearances for Brinson, and all he’s given us is 13 homers and four steals to go along with his ugly .231 wOBA. But hey, maybe there’s still hope, as manager Don Mattingly thinks he “looks like a different guy” during his work at spring training.

I rarely want to bet on a 32-year-old maintaining his HR/FB rate spike, but what if Cameron Maybin is for real? His HR/FB rate shot up to a career best 16.9%, and guess what…his xHR/FB fully supported that jump. In fact, his xHR/FB rate suggests Maybin was actually a bit unlucky, as the equation spit out an 18.7% mark, thanks to a doubling of his barrel rate, and substantial increases in fly ball pull rate and average fly ball distance. He still steals bases too, fitting in nicely with this team and their power/speed mix.

I worry that the delayed season could give Jake Fraley less time to impress before Mitch Haniger comes back, but let’s not worry about this now given how much unknown there is at the moment. Fraley isn’t exactly a top prospect, but he nearly tripled his 2018 HR/FB rate in 2019, posting mid-teen marks in both Double-A in Triple-A for the first time, while keeping his strikeout rate around 20% to 21%. That resulted in 19 dingers. He also showcased his speed, as he stole a combined 22 bases. What, another power/speed guy, Pod?! YES! What’s interesting here is he was a fly ball hitter in 2019, posting FB% marks over 40% in the minors at his two stops. While that will do him no BABIP favors, it will certainly boost his home run total.