The NFBC Unauctioned — Building a Pitching Staff

Yesterday, I assembled a 14-player offense from the hitters who weren’t bought in NFBC auctions since March 15. Today, let’s flip over to the pitching side.

Hey, this isn’t terrible! Of course, you don’t want to buy a pitching staff that projects for an ERA over 4.00 and a WHIP over 1.30, but those rate are unlikely to place last. Unfortunately, the counting stats need a lot of work. But the fact that not every category projection figures to earn last place points is why buying a cheap pitching staff is much more advisable than hitting. The two ratio categories in pitching, versus one for hitting, means you’re hurt less by a shortage of playing time. You never want to be starting a bench player in an mixed league, as you’re almost surely going to get killed in four counting categories (unless it’s a speed guy), whereas a lack of innings only hurts in three categories at most, depending on whether it’s a starter or reliever.

My general strategy in assembling this staff was to sort by my Pod Projection strikeout rate and buy the punchouts, hoping the ratios fall in line.

Vince Velasquez seems like an annual tease, as he has posted a 25%+ strikeout rate every year except in 2017. Yet, his career ERA stands at an ugly 4.67, which is a whole 0.61 points above his SIERA. You don’t often see such consistent SIERA underperformance. His two biggest problems have been a BABIP above .300 every single year and an oftentimes inflated HR/FB rate. However, remember that even though it feels like he has been around for a while, his career only spans 522.2 innings because of injury. That’s not nearly enough to make any judgment about his BABIP and HR/FB rate skills. So he’s a perfect dart throw for this staff as you know the strikeouts will be there, so it’s just a matter of better luck or improved BABIP and HR/FB rate skills, if they aren’t just the result of poor fortune.

Jordan Yamamoto wasn’t much of a prospect heading into the season, but he has posted some strong strikeout rates in the minors, and then carried that over during his cup of coffee in the Majors with a 25.2% mark. His minor league record suggests a much better walk rate, but I’d feel more confident he delivers value if he wasn’t allowing so many fly balls.

Thanks to arm injuries, Drew Smyly didn’t pitch in the Majors at all in 2017 and 2018. He finally returned last season, but spun 114 weak innings, as he posted an ugly 6.24 ERA. The good news is his velocity was as it always had been, while his strikeout rate and SwStk% were right in line with his career. So his stuff seemingly hadn’t dropped off due to the layoff. What did change, however, was his control, as his walk rate surged into double digits for the first time. After so much time off, I’ll give him a mulligan. What really has me interested is that he now joins the Giants, and even with their park changes, it will probably still remain one of the better pitcher parks in baseball.

Austin Voth is expected to battle Joe Ross for the fifth spot in the National rotation, and he has posted some solid strikeout rates recently. Pitching mostly in the rotation, Voth posted a 25.3% strikeout rate, backed by a 12.6% SwStk% last year, thanks to a curve, cutter, and change that all sported SwStk% marks above 16.5%. That’s mighty impressive.

Gosh I’ve mentioned Patrick Sandoval a lot and it’s because he has always posted strong strikeout rates and they were always supported by high SwStk% marks. In his MLB debut, he featured an elite changeup that generated a 25% SwStk% and a solid enough curve and slider. He certainly has the stuff, now he just needs to sharpen his control and also win a spot in the Angels rotation.

Remember Tyler Anderson? He was once ownable as a Rockies starter, but his skills declined, and Coors ultimately won the battle. Then he missed the majority of 2019 to injury. Now he’s a member of the Giants and will have a chance to win a rotation spot. The fact that he managed a low 20% strikeout rate in Coors is a sign of potentially usable skills in a pitcher friendly venue.

Naturally, I wasn’t going to find any closers not bought in NFBC auctions. So rather than fill the rest of my nine slots with starters very likely to ruin my ratios, I opted to go with three middle relievers who could possibly save double digit games.

The assumption right now is that veteran Brandon Kintzler opens the season as the Marlins closer, but he’s not good enough to be locked into the job. Ryne Stanek is your more typical closer and has a real shot to overtake Kintzler at some point, or win the job outright.

Here we go again with the Rays mystery ‘pen. While everyone assumes that Nick Anderson is the closer, we know the team loves to use multiple pitchers to close out games. Why lock Anderson into only save situations when there could be more important points earlier in the game to use him? Jose Alvarado is still highly skilled and should at least record a bunch of saves.

With Carlos Martinez looking set as a member of the Cardinals rotation, the team doesn’t have a locked in closer. The favorite is certainly Giovanny Gallegos, but don’t forget about Andrew Miller. Sure, he has posted ERAs over 4.00 the last two seasons, but his strikeout rate remains around 30%, and it was an inflated BABIP in 2018 and then HR/FB rate in 2019 that increased his ERA. He’s still plenty good enough to hold the closer job if given the opportunity.