The New xK% Winners and Losers

Let’s finish up new xK% equation week with a look at which starting pitchers gained and lost the most with the new coefficients versus the old ones. Though all of the coefficients increased, while the intercept is now a higher negative number, the L/Str and F/Str coefficients increased more dramatically than those for Str% and S/Str. So, one would imagine that a pitcher relying more on looking and foul strikes, as opposed to swinging, would get a relative boost using the new equation.

First, the fantasy relevant gainers:

Well gosh darn, this is quite the list of hurlers! Atop it is a trendy sleeper in David Phelps who just needs a rotation spot, while the rest of the list is littered with a who’s who of the top starters in baseball.

It’s no surprise to see Rich Hill on this list as he’s a curveballing looking strike monster. Then again, his foul strike rate is lower than average, but apparently not low enough to offset the boost the new called strike coefficient gave him. I love him given a full year in the National League.

Robbie Ray’s draft day price is going to be all over the place depending on your league. Obviously, I’m buying, but hoping his price more closely mirrors his 2016 ERA than SIERA.

All three of Blake Snell’s secondary offerings generated double digit SwStk% marks, including a slider above 20%. Control is the only thing standing in his way. Oh, and he also made my recently published xK% Upsiders list (using the old equation), so now he has even more upside!

Alex Wood rediscovered his strikeout pitch and still induces lots of grounders. Don’t forget about him.

I had no idea how good Lance McCullers is and could be until I did his projection. Health and control is all that stands between him and a league-leading ERA.

Danny Salazar worries me from a health perspective, which is unfortunate since I’ve been a fan.

And now for the fantasy relevant losers:

Man, this is quite a different list than above! And it would seem that my new formula is ensuring the rich get richer and poor get poorer. All the gainers are high strikeout guys, while the losers are in the bottom rung. But, that’s actually a good thing, as these equations notoriously miss the outliers on either side, so this suggests it’s missing by less now.

A full season in the National League is obviously a good thing for Ivan Nova, but still, there’s literally no way he’s going to sustain the microscopic walk rate he posted with the Pirates when he joined the team. And since nothing suggests he’s going to be much of a strikeout pitcher, he’s just not all that exciting.

I’m always curious what a heavy groundballer could do in the strikeout department if he decided to swap out those grounders for more strikeouts. Would it lead to better results? Why don’t ya try, Kendall Graveman?!

You might argue that this list is a lie, who is calling half these guys “fantasy relevant”?! Ehhh, you’d be surprised, some leagues are deep enough where Luis Perdomo is a legit sleeper.

Jaime Garcia was the guy that made me look beyond the FanGraphs SwStk%, as he routinely posted strikeout rates well below what his SwStk% marks would suggest. The answer? While his looking strike rate was always a bit below the league average, for whatever reason, his foul strike rate was typically at the bottom. I’m not sure what kind of pitcher and repertoire would induce lots of foul strikes, but clearly Garcia is missing that skill and it has caused his strikeout rate to diverge from his SwStk%.