The Mike Moustakas Breakout Happened!

I wrote a lot about Mike Moustakas heading into the 2015 season. First, I asked whether there was any hope for the man affectionately known as Moose Tacos. Although if you stared closely enough at his statistical trends, you could see a tiny seed blooming painfully slowly, it seemed obvious that there were too many flaws to make him worth a roster spot outside of AL-Only leagues. I then took another, perhaps closer look, three months later and proclaimed that the Moustakas breakout was upon us.

Judging by this wOBA graph, my crystal ball was on point as my breakout call proved correct:

After two straight seasons of decline and lots of flopping around in unacceptable offensive territory, Moustakas finally performed like we had expected from the get-go when he was the second overall pick in the 2007 Amateur Draft and a top prospect. The breakout was driven by improvements in three areas.

First, he reduced his strikeout rate for the third straight year by enjoying another decline in his SwStk%. He swung slightly less often, but when he did swing, he made better contact. All the improvement in contact came on pitches inside the strike zone, which seems more sustainable to me. All else equal, more balls in play will yield more hits, which equals a higher batting average, and more opportunities for those balls to go for extra bases.

Next, the quality of his batted ball direction improved dramatically. Though his batted ball type distribution was essentially identical to his 2014 season (high fly ball rate + high IFFB%), which was a clear negative, his Pull% fell sharply, while both his Center% and Oppo% jumped, the latter of which easily set a new career high. Sure enough, with a sudden ability to use the entire field like he had never shown before, his BABIP spiked to its highest mark since his 2011 debut, and finished just below the league average.

Unfortunately, if you check his pre- and post-all star break splits, you will discover that Moustakas wasn’t able to completely maintain that all fields approach through the entire season. Although he actually upped his Center% after the all-star break, he traded a significant rate of opposite field shots for pulled balls, and his Oppo% fell back in line with his 2012-2014 seasons, albeit marginally higher. As a result, it’s hard to say whether the first half was the fluke and he fell back into his old ways in the second half, or it was just the random ups and downs of a season, in which case next year we would expect a similar distribution to his full season line.

Projecting that distribution is important because it fuels his BABIP, and ultimately batting average. Whether he’s an asset in the category for fantasy owners or still just a .230 or .240 hitter is key to figuring out his preseason value. Remember, he’s still an extreme fly ball hitter who hits far too many pop-ups. The only way he’ll ever maintain an acceptable BABIP is to stop pulling the ball half the time.

The final driver of his breakout was his power. For a guy who hit 36 homers in the minors in 2010, it has been disappointing to see below league average HR/FB rates throughout his career. Sure, Kauffman Stadium hasn’t done him any favors, but he sports just a 9.0% HR/FB rate in away parks for his career (including this year), so we cannot lay the entire blame on his home park.

Finally this season, Moustakas nudged his HR/FB rate into double digits and his ISO surged to a new career high as a result. But, his batted ball distance actually declined by about 10 feet compared to last year! So I would argue that he didn’t necessarily increase his power, but rather just enjoyed some better results, which seems a bit fluky. But since his current distance is still just below the league average, I would expect another HR/FB rate mark in the 10% to 11% range next year. There’s just no indications of further growth, though.

So there it is, the seeds that portended a possible Moustakas breakout actually sprouted, yet he still finished just 10th in value among third basemen. I don’t see much additional upside from here, so he doesn’t make for a particularly intriguing fantasy target.