2015 Visualized: Third Base

2015 Visualized: Second Base
2015 Visualized: First Base
2015 Visualized: Catcher

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For the next few weeks, the RotoGraphs staff will devote an entire week to each defensive position, including spotlights on particular players as well as trends throughout the 2015 season. This week, we’re highlighting third basemen.

I don’t claim to be a Tableau (or data visualization) whiz by any means, but I thought it would be cool to visually represent the third base landscape in 2015 — with some analysis sprinkled in.

Steamer and ZiPS represent premier player projection systems; FanGraphs’ Depth Charts combines the two, and the writing staff allocate playing time accordingly. The playing time part is less important relative to the combined projections, as aggregated projections tend to perform better than standalones.

I compared projected wOBA (weighted on-base average) from the preseason to actual wOBA (1) by team and (2) by player within team. Unlike WAR, wOBA is a rate metric, so it does not need to be scaled according to playing time.

First: the difference between a team’s wOBA generated by third basemen and their projected wOBA. Blue represents the highest expected wOBA; yellow represents lowest expected wOBA. The size of the bar above (below) the line represents actual wOBA above (below) expectations.

The measurements aren’t perfect — in an attempt to simplify matters, I included only players who recorded at least 50 plate appearances officially designated as a third baseman. Moreover, many third basemen played multiple positions. Accordingly, I isolated their production at third base and excluded everything else.

As a group, third basemen outperformed their projected collective wOBA by 12 points (.331 actual versus .319 projected). The youth movement is strong at the hot corner, with Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Matt Duffy & Co. all not only pacing the position in production but also outperforming their projections by notable margins. Even day-old-but-still-fresh faces such as Mike Moustakas and Josh Donaldson contributed to 2015’s third-base thump. Also, if the Indians were ever considered contenders in the American League Central, their third basemen (Lonnie Chisenhall and Giovanny Urshela, mostly) did them no favors.

Second: the difference between each player’s actual wOBA and his projected wOBA, categorized by team, represented by the distance of each dot from zero. Colors are scaled by actual wOBA, and dot magnitude represents sample size.

I blew the lede for this chart, but as aforementioned, third base saw many a strong performance in 2015. A few rookies unexpectedly reared their heads:

• Adonis Garcia, ATL — .328 wOBA. He’s technically a rookie, but he’s 30 years old. He played in Cuba for eight years before defecting. After languishing at Triple-A for three years, Garcia finally received his chance for a depleted Braves team and ran with it (for a little while), hitting 10 home runs in 198 plate appearances with a .277 batting average to boot. The on-base percentage (OBP) suffers because of the poor walk rate, and the power seems like a mirage given the almost-50-percent groundball rate (GB%). He’s a fantasy afterthought.
• Hector Olivera, ATL — .322 wOBA. But then Olivera came along (aka got traded from the Dodgers) and did, eh, all right. His Cuba Serie Nacional stats underwhelmed me, but I think, to scouts, he’s one of those “raw tools” kind of guys. We’ll see how he develops.
• Joey Gallo, TEX — .345 wOBA. Perhaps the most prodigious power west of the Mississippi, Gallo wasted no time showing off his massive hacks — with whiffs to boot. Gallo could end up being a guy who perenially hits 40 home runs without ever cracking a .250 batting average.

Because of the solid performances all around, there aren’t many sour cases to isolate. Adrian Beltre‘s twilight years are upon us, so enjoy watching the future Hall of Famer while you still can. It appears Evan Longoria’s dip in power was legitimate, as he didn’t bounce back quite the way ZiPS and Steamer projected. He’s 30 years old — aka right about the time dude’s careers turn south. Chase Headley was a bummer, but hey, he’s been one since his improbable 2012 half-season slugfest.

2015’s least valuable third baseman, then, by a landslide, is Pablo Sandoval. Helping propel an allegedly playoff-bound Red Sox team to last place in the AL East, Sandoval’s batted ball profile tanked in all the right (or, I guess, wrong) ways: his groundball rate approached 50 percent, the highest of his career; his hard-hit rate (Hard%) fell below 25 percent, the lowest of his career; and his plate discipline cratered just ever-so-slightly enough for a perfect storm of ineffective hitting that saw the Panda hitting 25 percent worse than the average hitter. And that’s all before we include his defense that allegedly cost the Sox more than 15 runs. All in all, Panda’s two wins below replacement could be construed as two losses the Sox will never get back — although would they have really mattered anyway?