The Freshmen Report: Burns, DeShields Jr., Russell
Today at The Freshmen Report we’re going to look at a couple of speedsters that are positively impacting their clubs, as well as one of the Cubs’ promising young players.
Billy Burns, OF, Athletics: The A’s entered the season with all sorts of outfield options and Burns was an afterthought — demoted to Triple-A to begin the year. A development success by the Nationals — who selected him in the 32nd round of the 2011 draft — the speedy outfielder needed less than four years in the minors to become a impactful leadoff hitter. He’s stolen 10 bases in 12 attempts but needs to get on base more consistently with a walk rate of just 4.3%; his .362 on-base percentage if heavily-fuelled by his .318 average. Burns, 25, entered the 2015 season viewed as a potential fourth outfielder and, although he’s off to a fast start (pun intended), he hasn’t proven that he’s a regular center-fielder just yet. Enjoy the offence while it lasts but don’t plan around him long term.
Delino DeShields Jr., OF, Rangers: The exclusion of DeShields from the Astros’ 40-man roster back in November was puzzling at the time and the decision to omit him looks even worse now. The young infielder-turned-outfielder has been one of the club’s catalysts as it digs itself out from an early season hole in the standings. And who are they trying to catch? The Astros — which adds even more insult to injury. There are some defensive questions with DeShields, as well as with rumblings about his attitude/effort while in the minors but he might be one of those players that performs better in bright lights then in front of 1,000-people crowds in the minors. The 22-year-old outfielder has stolen 13 bags in 14 tries and also generates good line-drive pop despite his small stature. He’s also getting on base via the walk at a rate of more than 12%.
Lance McCullers Jr., RHP, Astros: You win some and you lose some. The Astros might have lost out on one junior but they’re enjoying the fruits of their labor with another in McCullers Jr. The son of one of my favorite players from the 80s has — aside from making me feel old — been better than expected while making the jump from Double-A to the Majors (with a brief stop in Triple-A where he didn’t pitch). The hard-thrower has been averaging 94 mph with his heater and showing much better control than he displayed in the minors (a red flag). McCullers Jr’s curveball has also been outstanding in the early going but his changeup has lagged behind his other offerings. Even so, his 1-2 punch has been more than good enough the first time through the league. With veteran hurler Scott Feldman out for about six weeks, the young pitcher will have every opportunity to solidify his role on the first-place Astros.
Addison Russell, SS, Cubs: Russell could be a tempting add to your fantasy team because he’s a highly-regarded prospect and plays a premium position. Unfortunately, he’s not really going to be relevant in 2015 so unless you’re in a keeper league, you want to avoid him for now. Only the second player named Addison to play in the Majors, his value (1.0 WAR) is currently tied up solely in his defensive skills and doesn’t help a fantasy manager. He’s hitting in the No. 9 hole in the Cubs lineup, behind the pitcher, and features an empty .295 on-base percentage and a scary strikeout rate at 34% Some good news for the future: 16 of his 35 hits have gone for extra bases, including four homers.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
“Offence”!?! Just move to the UK and be done with it you Nancy.
Russell was ice cold when he first got called up. His K-rate was something like 50%. It’s a solid bet to expect him to be more the player we’ve seen in recent weeks IMO.
Zips/Steamer currently projects him to be v. similar to Correa, perhaps with more HR and less speed, in fewer at bats. Brett Talley just posted an article judging Correa to be a top 10-15 shortstop with upside. Agree that dismissing Russell now (particularly given improvement in recent weeks) is a mistake.
Thanks for this writeup! Question to you from a fellow Canadian: Do you see Deshields keeping this up and keeping his leadoff spot for the rest of the year? How do you rate him compared to someone like Marcus Semien, ROS?
Deshields has shown some cracks lately, walking a little less, striking out more. I think he keeps his job at least until/if Hamilton returns, but he’s more of a 4th outfielder for now. I’m not a Semien fan, but I think he’s a much safer bet ROS.
I’m going to have to disagree with my esteemed peer Mr Peepants…use the google machine to see if you can dig up Jim Callis’s write-up on Deshields. In short, Callis was high on him and viewed him as a better big league player than Billy Hamilton if you had to choose between the two speedsters. The review is good and makes a compelling case for DD.
My take — DD has shown an advanced feel for the zone, compact swing with line-drive swing path, and plus speed. Altogether, he figures to get on base at a solid clip, between walks and high BABIP, and provide passable CF defense….maybe comping to Coco Crisp with less power, more speed, and touch more BB to go with a touch more K’s. To me that sounds like an everyday guy, albeit fringe everyday, but for fantasy purposes a good source of Runs and SBs.
I actually agree with you long-term, I just don’t think he’s quite ready this year at 22/23 with no AAA ABs and he probably wouldn’t be in the majors if it weren’t for his Rule 5 status. The OF is pretty crowded once Hamilton returns and you have to assume less than full time ABs if everyone is healthy. I even own Deshields in my main league and have been happy with his production, I just don’t expect it to last.
I would stick with Semien. I like DeShields and think he is definitely worth owning with Hamilton out, but assuming Hamilton comes back within a month or so and Choo stays healthy (big ifs, I grant you), DeShields is probably little more than a platoon guy with Martin in CF.
Semien, like Burns, has very little competition for playing time on the A’s and should continue to start everyday. That’s also why I actually like Burns a bit more than DeShields for the rest of this year. With Delino Jr. we really don’t know how the playing time situation will work out, but with Burns we know he should be playing everyday even if Coco Crisp comes back. Burns has little to no competition for an everyday job in CF, I mean is Oakland really going to stick Sam Fuld back in CF? My guess is they ride Burns out the ROS and see what they have and if he can be a suitable, cheap CF going forward. That may not be a great endorsement, but from a fantasy perspective I will take a speed guy who is given everyday AB’s over another speed guy who doesnt have that same guarantee.
I like DeShields Jr too, picked him up from time to time, I think he’ll hit a few more homers rest of the season. I am contemplating to picking him over Gallo, as Betts is struggling for me.
I wish I had kept Correa though, oh well-got him in one league.
As for Burns, I think Burns will be fine, he won’t hit over .300 the rest of the year, but he’ll steal bases and get on base for sure.