Buying Logan Forsythe
I’ve been optimistic about Logan Forsythe all year, recommending him to AL-only owners back in April, when he was virtually unowned in fantasy leagues. This month, I ranked him 18th rest-of-season at second base, a significant jump up from where I had him in May (No. 26). I should have bumped him up higher.
One factor that has Forsythe’s stock on the rise is his production, plain and simple. The 28-year-old followed up a .282/.370/.465 April with a .297/.368/.465 May — an .835 OPS followed by .834. That’s consistency. He’s not showing many signs of slowing down either, as he’s already launched two bombs in the first week of June.
The other reason to board the Forsythe Hype Train is the fact that he’s losing zero playing time to the now-healthy Nick Franklin. One concern regarding Forsythe in the early portion of the season was that he wouldn’t see the field as much once Franklin returned.
Franklin was back on the active roster by May 17, but Forsythe has still remained in the lineup every single day, without exception. Furthermore, Franklin is doing everything he can to get shipped back to Triple-A Durham. He’s hitting .075/.159/.175, and though it’s just a 44-PA sample, it’s plenty alarming for a guy who’s sitting on a career .204/.280/346 slash in the first place.
As for Forsythe, the key to his success has been marked improvement in his production against right-handed pitching. Coming into the season, it looked like Forsythe’s future was that of a platoon bat, because of these terrifying splits:
- vs L – .278/.347/.443 (.790 OPS), 9.2% BB, 17.8% K
- vs R – .215/.281/.298 (.579 OPS), 7.1% BB, 21.4% K
This year, however, has been a very different story:
- vs L – .227/.338/.561 (.898 OPS), 12.0% BB, 18.7% K
- vs R – .302/.378/.413 (.790 OPS), 8.7% BB, 14.5% K
Not only is he mashing lefties to an even greater degree, Forsythe is now producing against same-handed pitching, with dramatically improved plate discipline. Of course, this is the part where you’re all starting to wonder if this 224-PA sample from 2015 is sustainable, especially when Forsythe had 1,098 PA to compile those ugly splits at the top.
Righties have always used the same game plan against Forsythe, because that plan has always worked. Pound the low-outside corner; rinse, lather, repeat:
Now, here’s the same map, but the new and improved 2015 version:
As a result, Forsythe has become a solid hitter against same-handed pitching, and there’s really nothing scary in his data that suggests regression. His BABIP is a perfectly reasonable .303, none of his homers have been cheapies, his improvement is the result of an easily identifiable adjustment, etc.
Owners in CBS leagues have caught on, as he’s owned in 76% of leagues there. However, he’s owned in just 23% of Yahoo leagues, and is still available in half of ESPN leagues. If he’s available in your league, it’s probably time to change that.
Scott Strandberg started writing for Rotographs in 2013. He works in small business consultation, and he also writes A&E columns for The Norman Transcript newspaper. Scott lives in Seattle, WA.
Back when the Rays acquired Forsythe there was talk that the Rays were trying to find the next Ben Zobrist.
So far Forsythe has seen substantial time at 1B and 2B and a smattering of 3B. He hasn’t played SS or OF this year but had a few games out there last year so that might be something to look out for.
Drop Harrison or B. Crawford for him in a triple slash? I’m leaning towards just sitting tight.
You can’t drop Crawford, Harrison is a different story though. I would drop Harrison for Forsythe, assuming you don’t need/care about Harrison’s position flexibility. I just think Forsythe’s power potential is greater and Harrison sure looks like a guy who busted out for one year and never comes close to repeating that year.
I disagree. Harrison is the best of the bunch. He is under-performing but he is also performing closest to expectations. After a very bad start, he has come around to right about where we would expect him to be.
’15 .276/.362/.459 Forsythe
ROS .242/.318/.375
Dif +14%/+14%/+22%
’15 .289/.361/.492 Crawford
ROS .248/.317/.385
Dif +17%/+14%/+28%
’15 .265/.304/.397 Harrison
ROS .278/.315/.419
Dif -5%/-3%/-5%
Past 4 weeks:
.241/.350/.425 Forsythe
.327/.365/.520 Crawford
.372/.412/.532 Harrison
My main concern with Harrison is the lack of steals. I think going into the year, owners bought him as a 10 HR/20 SB guy and right now, those steals just dont look within reach unless he goes on a massive stealing binge. My probably comes close to 10 HR and the Batting Average will be decent, He’s not totally without value and to me it’s extremely close with Forsythe, but I worry Kang could also cut into Harrison’s playing time.
I think Crawford is worth hanging onto just because of his position, even if he slows down considerably, he will carry value considering how bad SS has been this year. Harrison and Forsythe man much deeper positions.
Logan’s production speaks for itself, but would it be fair to expect his RBI totals to drastically decrease as the season goes along? Joey Butler, batting 2nd for the last month, has a .450 BABIP and still only has a .360 OBP. When that BABIP tanks, those RBI’s go away. Jennings has never produced a good OBP, and is likely to take his spot eventually.
Longo has really decreased his OBP as the season has gone along as well, and he bats 3rd, to Forsythe’s 4th. Longo in April, was walked 14% of the time and had a .400 OBP. As the season progressed, and pitchers learned Longo was no longer the same danger he once was, his BB% has gone down drastically. Since May 1, he has only walked 8.6% and has a .324 OBP.
Nothing seems lucky about Forsythe, except RBI’s. With fewer opportunities likely lurking in the future, I expect a drastic reduction.
Is my thinking accurate?
Perhaps, but does that matter? It’s not like you drafted Forsythe. So he was an in-season add where, for the most part, any kind of production is welcomed. ZIPS has 25 more RBI ROS, and Steamer is 32. They also only project 264 and 322 PA ROS. This seems really low, I’d think it’s probably closer to 400-450 PA, which should extrapolate those ROS RBI #’s to 40-50. I’d take 40 more RBI, another 6-8 HR and the good OPS #’s for a guy who came off the wire for free.
Would you sell him for Alex Wood in a 15-player keeper league (rosters 25)?