The Disappointing Byron Buxton & Small Samples

Often times, the most heavily hyped prospects flop in their first taste of Major League action. As I discussed a couple of weeks ago, this has not happened to top Twins prospect Miguel Sano. But it has to their top rated prospect, Byron Buxton. Over 86 plate appearances, Buxton has posted a paltry .235 wOBA. It would be easy to look past the surface results and consider them just some standard struggles at the plate for a youngster, coupled with some likely poor fortune. But there have been some very troubling signs behind these numbers.

First and foremost, Buxton has had issues putting the bat on the ball. In and of itself, that’s not a death sentence. But usually those with high strikeout rates also bring big power. Buxton does not and was never expected to. So having struck out an astounding 31 times already, which is over a third of his plate appearances, is problematic. His 14.7% SwStk% would rank eighth in baseball if he qualified, which is a mark that is mostly surrounded by some of the best power hitters in the game.

He has never had major strikeout issues in the minors. And after accumulating just 59 plate appearances at Triple-A, the fact that he has struck out so often at the MLB level suggests the obvious — that he’s simply just not ready to produce at this level.

His plate discipline stats tell the same story. He has swung at more pitches outside the strike zone than the average, yet less at pitches inside the zone. That’s not how you’re supposed to do it! Overall, it adds up to a Swing% just below the league average. Making contact with pitches inside the zone has been slightly more difficult for Buxton than the average MLBer, but his real problem has been hitting those outside the zone. That’s obviously a more difficult task to accomplish for everyone, but Buxton’s O-Contact% is more than twenty percentage points below the league average. In fact, it would easily be the lowest in baseball if he qualified for the leaderboard. One would think the obvious solution would be to stop swinging so often at pitches that not only he cannot hit, but aren’t even strikes!

As the strikeouts have continued to pile up, he has failed to at least mix in some walks along the way, as he has just three on the season. His walk rates have jumped around throughout his minor league career, as he has shown both a strong eye at several stops and a mediocre one at others. But his current 3.5% walk rate is at most half of what he had been posting in the minors.

Because he has been on base so infrequently, he has attempted just three steals. And to really make his fantasy owners cry, he has been caught on two of those tries. Oh, and he has yet to hit a home run.

Aside from defense, which he has played spectacularly, Buxton has been a major disappointment in every aspect of his offensive game so far. BUT! Let’s get back to the title of the article and say that magic phrase — SMALL SAMPLE SIZE! There are two things going on here. First, he’s a rookie who has barely had any experience at Triple-A before getting the call. So his struggles so far shouldn’t necessarily be shrugged off due to the randomness of about three weeks worth of play. On the other hand, 86 plate appearances carries very little significance and offers limited predictive value.

Given the support of his advanced metrics that paint a picture of a hitter not ready for Major League pitching, I would certainly reduce your optimism for a strong final month. But the small sample size angle is more for next year. Don’t let Buxton’s struggles this season cause you to lose interest in him. While it’s unfair to compare him to Mike Trout, remember that he posted just a .296 wOBA over 135 plate appearances during his 2011 debut and then exploded the following year. At this point, keeper league owners should target Buxton to acquire at a discount and single season owners should hope Buxton fails to finish the season on a high note to ensure his cost is depressed next year.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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drock2190
8 years ago

Buxton has a tendency to watch the 1st pitch go by so pitchers have picked up on that and he’s already down 0-1 in a lot of counts. And it spirals from there.

Mainly I think he’s pressing too hard right now, trying to prove himself at this level. Plus he’s started slowly at every level he’s been at.