The Daily Grind: Tomlin, Duffey, Holmberg, Kiké

Agenda

1. deGromulent
2. Daily DFS – Tomlin
3. SaberSim Hi/Lo
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Duffey, Holmberg, Kiké, Sweeney
5. Factor Grid

1. deGromulent

Entering yesterday, Jacob deGrom had a 1.98 ERA on the season. Now he has a 2.29 ERA. A jump of 0.30 ERA after 155 innings suggests that a very bad outing occurred. Indeed, deGrom allowed eight hits, three walks, and three home runs in 2.2 innings against the lowly Phillies. However, the Mets were fortunate enough to explode for 16 runs, continuing a recent binge of run scoring.

deGrom’s terrible day has brought to the fore questions about endurance. A six month season is a long battle. Even veterans can fatigue if they don’t stay on top of their nutrition. While I don’t have specific concerns about deGrom – I think this was a one game blip in a nearly Cy Young caliber season – it’s worth remembering that this is the time of year when pitcher fatigue can torpedo a fantasy season.

Keep a close eye on your young guys. Real teams are more aware than ever of pitcher health, they’ll tell you if they think a player is tired by pushing back his starts or adding a sixth man to the rotation.

2. Daily DFS – Tomlin

Yesterday’s Grind

It’s all late today. Want an ace? There are four. Want somebody who might behave like an ace? You have a couple more options. The top of the pool is dominated by studs like Noah Syndergaard, Stephen Strasburg, Dallas Keuchel, and Jake Arrieta. James Shields and Jaime Garcia also contribute their fair share of strong outings.

Entering the season, Josh Tomlin was one of my favorite deep sleepers – especially for K/BB leagues. He’s pitched well in two outings, but the stats are contradictory. A 2.03 ERA is always good, but it’s worrisome to see it coupled with a 4.85 FIP. Meanwhile, 7.43 K/9 and 1.35 BB/9 are both strong, but his tiny 5.8 percent swinging strike rate suggests the punch outs will disappear. Finally, there is his long standing problem with home runs.

To this point, he’s allowed a .121 BABIP, 100 percent LOB, and 20 percent HR/FB ratio. Regression could hit like a truck. A matchup against the low octane Brewers may give him a chance to continue outperforming his FIP.

I also like Nate Karns,  Jesse Chavez, and Robbie Ray today. Karns is opposed by the Twins at Tropicana Field. Chavez travels to Seattle. Ray hosts the Cardinals.

Stack Targets: Jerome Williams, John Lamb, Chad Bettis, Brad Hand, Mike Foltynewicz, Matt Cain, Ivan Nova, Jered Weaver, Alex Wood, Alfredo Simon, Derek Holland, Mark Buehrle

3. SaberSim Hi/Lo

Wrong: I fail to see how it’s possible that Foltynewicz is the fifth best pitcher today. SaberSim has him listed ahead of Keuchel, Shields, Ray, and Garcia. The strong rating is predicated on regression in his home rate. The hard throwing righty is an extreme fly ball pitcher with an elevated HR/FB ratio. His ceiling is a better version of Miguel Gonzalez. The Rockies have a number of potent left-handed hitters. Folty has allowed a ridiculous .416 wOBA to south-swingers. Righties have managed a potent .369 wOBA. I don’t think he’s a major league pitcher at this stage of his career, let alone better than Keuchel.

Rated fourth is Nate Karns. I can almost get behind this one. Like Foltynewicz, Karns is a fly ball pitcher with a HR/FB ratio problem. However, the issue is much less extreme. With otherwise solid peripherals and a home park that suppresses big flies, Karns should be a stable asset. SaberSim goes astray by projecting nearly seven innings. The Rays don’t let their pitchers work deep. Karns has pitched beyond the sixth inning in just three of 24 starts. He’s never thrown more than seven innings in a major league game.

Right: Yasiel Puig costs $2,700. Yasiel Puig is facing lefty John Lamb at homer haven Cincinnati. In this slumpy season, Puig is a .259/.377/.500 hitter against southpaws. SaberSim is right to pick him as the 10th most valuable hitter.

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Duffey, Holmberg, Kiké, Sweeney

Pitchers to Start: While I’m not all-aboard the Tyler Duffey bandwagon, it is worth noting that his opponent is not very good against right-handed pitchers. In three starts, Duffey has run the gamut. The first was a two inning disaster. Then he shutdown the Indians via an effectively wild outing (five walks and one hit in six innings). Then, lest you worry about his command, he walked none in a solid outing against the Orioles. However, he did cough up 10 hits over 7.2 innings. All told, I have no idea what to expect. He should offer a strikeout per inning. Too bad he’s opposed by Chris Archer.

Also consider: Patrick Corbin

Pitchers to Exploit: The Dodgers faced David Holmberg on August 15. The Reds lefty lasted two innings and allowed seven runs on five hits, four walks, and three home runs. That game was at Chavez Ravine. Tomorrow’s contest is in Cincinnati. Expect more big flies.

Also consider: Collin McHugh, Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago, Yohan Flande, Kendry Flores, Colby Lewis, Rick Porcello

Hitters (power): Joc Pederson is out and Enrique Hernandez is in. It’s good news for owners who snagged Kike only to see his playing time seemingly evaporate with the acquisition of Chase Utley.  He’s still wrecking southpaws with a .381/.444/.730 line (driven by a .467 BABIP). A start against Holmberg in Cincinnati does not suggest regression is coming.

Also consider: Chris Coghlan, Stephen Piscotty, Jake Lamb, Martin Prado, Pedro Alvarez, Scott Van Slyke, Jimmy Rollins, Justin Turner, Ben Paulsen, Kelly Johnson, Michael Conforto, Ryan Howard, Aaron Altherr

Hitters (speed): I’m confused as to why Darnell Sweeney isn’t playing at least five times a week. He’s appeared in five straight games, but he only started one of them. The top prospect in the Utley trade has a relatively high ceiling as a power and speed threat. Fantasy owners should pay close attention to how he’s used over the rest of the season. For tomorrow, pick one of the four guys below.

Also consider: Gregor Blanco, Rajai Davis, Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The early season was full of rain and storm warnings. Lately, it’s been dry, dry, and drier.

The Link.

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