The Daily Grind: Split-Action Ace-Gun
For those accustomed to finding Streaming Wars in this pre-section of The Daily Grind, well, you will not find it today. I’m in full-rush mode whilst preparing for a certain storm.
AGENDA
- TDG Invitational
- Weather Reports
- Pitchers to Use and Abuse
- SaberSim Says…
1. The Daily Grind Invitational
There’s nothing worse than spiking your pitchers then realizing that EVERYBODY spiked their pitchers. Our winner, bwilley1023, nabbed highly popular Mike Foltynewicz and Brad Keller. Where he differentiated himself was with a 32 point performance from Didi Gregorius (seven percent owned). Congrats and Leaderboard.
As usual, we’re on FantasyDraft tonight. Good luck!
If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.
2. Weather Reports
The doubleheader at CitiField will 1. probably happen and 2. not be entirely dry. Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Boston could have some splishy splashy too.
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
Early Slate: The four-game early slate offers a fantastic range of pitchers. I’m going to rush through them in batches. Of the aces, Gerrit Cole ($23,100) is obviously the best play. He’s facing the weakest offense of the trio. More importantly, Blake Snell ($20,500) and Carlos Carrasco ($19,500) cancel each other out.
Jameson Taillon ($16,300) is steady good. This price is a steal. Daniel Poncedeleon ($12,100) is reasonably priced too. Ross Stripling ($14,900) joins them in the mid-tier. I don’t know what to expect in his return to starting. I do know I hate using pitchers in Cincinnati.
Speaking of which, I’d avoid Anthony DeSclafani ($11,000) if he wasn’t $2,000 underpriced. You may not need that $2,000 since most of the pitchers are similarly underpriced. Last but not least… or maybe least… Daniel Norris ($10,000) is piling up strikeouts since returning to the majors. We don’t have enough data to say more than he earned those strikeouts with a high swinging strike rate. Doesn’t mean he’ll continue to earn them. Also, the Astros.
Stack Targets: Norris, DeSclafani
Main Slate: Lest you worry all the good pitchers were wasted on the early contest, our eight game main slate is similarly endowed. I’m gonna skip the four priciest names to jump up and down in front of Luis Severino ($17,700). What is that price? Sevy is a must-play in a visit to semi-pitcher friendly Target Field.
Aaron Nola ($21,600) is the only pitcher over the $20,000 mark. It’s a shame he’s opposed by Stephen Strasburg ($18,700). These are high value, high quality aces at cheep cheep cheep prices. Playing at sea level Coors Field (Citizen’s Bank Park) isn’t ideal for either arm – not that Nola hasn’t dealt with it all season.
Speaking of Coors Field, Patrick Corbin is maybe a little expensive for a visit there. He’ll run ya $19,300 opposite the enigmatic Jon Gray ($13,500). If you’re considering a foray into hitter heaven, I kinda like the Gray side of the bargain spectrum.
David Price ($19,000) is well on his way to the win bonus – assuming he avoids home runs. He’s had some nasty meltdowns mixed in with copious quantities of solid performances.
Mind the gap.
Carlos Rodon ($16,900) frequently throws six to eight innings, and he has an easy matchup versus the Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Chase Anderson ($13,200) at Kyle Hendricks ($16,300) offer some cheaper, less popular alternatives. Too bad they aren’t facing the Royals too.
Last and definitely not least is Felix Pena ($14,400). He uses a right-handed version of Corbin’s repertoire (i.e. fastballs and sliders) and has Price’s path to an extra-easy victory. All for a huge discount.
Stack Targets: Liam Hendriks, Andrew Cashner, Eric Skoglund, Aaron Sanchez, Yovani Gallardo, Jake Odorizzi
I think Daniel Mengden is the handcuff to Hendriks. If you confirm that, he’s a reasonable $9,500 in a friendly matchup.
4. SaberSim Says…
Strasburg, Nola, Hendricks, Severino, and Price are the preferred arms. I disagree about Strasburg being top dog. Gray, Hendricks, Strasburg, Odorizzi, and Pena are the best values. Top bats include Mike Trout, Ramon Laureano!!!, Mookie Bets, Matt Chapman, and Paul Goldschmidt. One of those is not like the others – can you spot him? Premium bargains consist of Matt Holliday, Laureano, Logan Forsythe, Jose Fernandez, and Andrew McCutchen.
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Cheep?
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I’m in the semis…thinking of rolling out Gray today. I’m nervous. What do you think?
I too would be nervous. Gray is nerve inspiring. He’s a high variance play with plausible outcomes ranging from disaster to gem.
Thanks guys. I’m going to sit him…actually I’ll probably drop him since I won’t be using him and if I need innings later in the week (30 min) I stream someone better. I already have Mikolas (7) and then Cole, Kershaw, Tanaka and John Grant remaining for the week.
I think streaming in guys at Coors is just bad strategy. I mean, if one of your regulars is making a start there sometimes you just gotta grit your teeth and hope for the best but going out and picking guys up is another thing.
I will say though, Sabersim likes Gray at Coors just fine, basically a toss-up with Corbin and it likes both of them at least a little. DBacks have hardly been fearsome this year if you get past Goldy, Peralta and Pollack. I don’t know, I suppose I could be talked into it.
Sure, in general it’s a bad strategy. It’s not like using bland pitchers at AT&T Park. But a generally bad strategy is not ALWAYS a bad strategy. This is a case where, in the right setting, Gray should be used. And it’s smart to do so.
Double emphasis on “right setting.” I don’t know if that’s the case for swannie35.
I’m worried about Jon Gray. Last 3 games: 6Ks in 16.2 IP. His SwStr% are 3.4%, 4.5% , then 8.2% (all lower than every game prior this season). It looks like he had to up his slider usage to 61% last game to get 4Ks (season usage is 34%). He’s also getting substantially fewer swings outside the zone. (18.8% and 18.6% last 2). I think the price is low because of this. He’s a fade or pass for me.