The Daily Grind: Something About the Castros

The 40-entry Invitational was a success. It took about three hours to fill. My deal stands. We’ll keep doing a larger Invitational until it doesn’t fill. Then we switch to FanDuel for a week. Sorry to those waiting to switch platforms. I’m just being a good little economist and following the demand.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Is Daniel Castro Actually Good?

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Whoa, smoke281dogg set a new season high with 194.75 points. Everybody did something. His worst player was a double, two RBI, two walk performance from Khris Davis (13 points). Many congrats and Leaderboard.

We’re on DraftKings tonight. $2, 40 entries, etc.

PS – New users who deposit with my referral link get 25% bonus cash after jumping through a few hoops. I also get 25%. Conditional referral bonuses suck, but I guess they’re better than no bonus.

2. Weather Reports

It’s rainy. Sad. The game in Baltimore looks like a goner with Pittsburgh not much more likely to run. Cleveland is in trouble too. Philadelphia should start their game, but they might not finish. Cincinnati isn’t in the clear either.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: It’s an 11-game slate tonight. Charlie Morton ($11,200) and Robbie Ray ($11,000) are the expensive arms. Morton has a challenging matchup against the LA Trout. Ray is visiting cozy Citizen’s Bank Park. Philadelphia makes for a high risk, high reward opponent.

Opposite Morton is Shohei Ohtani ($9,900). Through three starts, he has a solid outing, an absolute gem, and a blister-shortened dud. The Astros offense is scary pairing for anybody. It’s too bad he doesn’t have a softer opponent. I want to throw the dice, but I suspect he’ll be overly popular.

I like Rick Porcello when he costs in the $8,000s. For $9,500, we’re leaving a few dollars on the table. I do appreciate his consistent high floor, medium ceiling output. Quality starts are common for Porcello, and it’s not like the Blue Jays are a tough opponent. He’s opposed by $8,000 J.A. Happ. I’d avoid him against the Red Sox.

Kenta Maeda always disappoints on the point sheet. He’s one of those pitchers you can watch, come away impressed, then see only 13 points in DraftKings. It’s frustrating. He should be hugely popular against the Marlins. Maybe he’ll get past the sixth inning.

Tanner Roark has an easy win at AT&T Park. It’s the perfect venue and opponent for using him. And he only costs $8,200. To be clear, Roark rarely eclipses 25 points of production. He’s very likely to reach the upper-teens.

Digging deeper, believers in Vince Velasquez’s newfound “consistency” can roster him for only $7,000. I’m not with you yet. Zach Davies has an easy win lined up at Kauffman Stadium. Chad Kuhl is hosting the Tigers. Luke Weaver has mixed a couple 24 point outings with a couple duds. He’ll host the Mets.

Stack Targets: Eric Lauer, Dillon Peters, Ty Blach, Jordan Zimmermann, Kyle Freeland, Jake Faria, Alex Cobb

Cobb has allowed 20 hits and 15 runs in seven innings. Aside from a .515 BABIP, 39.3 left on base rate, and 27.3 percent HR/FB ratio, he kinda looks like normal Cobb. If the forecast changes, be careful going nuts for Rays. I suggest rostering only a couple.

4. SaberSim Says…

Ray, Weaver, Maeda, Velasquez, and Kuhl are the top rated pitchers per The Sim. Not sure I buy Ray and Velasquez coexisting in the top five. Values are Weaver, Velasquez, Kuhl, and Jake Faria. A Coors Field game dominates the hitter list – Nolan Arenado, Wil Myers, Mike Trout, Charlie Blackmon, Christian Villanueva (hurt hammy). Noel Cuevas, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Iannetta, and Teoscar Hernandez are some of the bargains.

5. Is Daniel Castro Actually Good?

Over the winter, I wrote some semi-kind words about Daniel Castro, a former fringe prospect who is now a card carrying Triple-A depthman. I was bullied into this attention by the Daniel Castro Fan Club (@DanielCastroFan) – for which efforts I was mailed a tee shirt. Within hours of the article running, Castro re-signed with the Rockies.

Since an 0-for-4 performance on minor league Opening Day, Castro is on a 17 game hit streak – batting .460/.500/.603 over the 68 plate appearance span with five walks and five strikeouts. Anytime you see an over-.400 batting average, it’s a good time to check BABIP. Castro’s is .468. Although he’s not hitting for home run power, he does have seven doubles and a triple. The only red flag is a 10.5 percent swinging strike rate – way over his normal rate of around seven percent.

There’s an increasing chance that Castro could be something like a poor man’s Joe Panik but with Coors Field on his side. Too bad he’ll have to root for an injury to Trevor Story and/or DJ LeMahieu.