The Daily Grind: Smyly, Corbin, Gyorko

Agenda

1. Adblockers
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Corbin, Smith, Gyorko, Hicks
6. Factor Grid

1. Adblockers

Yesterday, I had an interesting discussion with Baseball Reference’s Sean Forman regarding adblockers. He’s worried the that the trend towards using adblockers will affect how his site operates sooner or later. He also mentioned the option of banning users who block ads. For a project like B-Ref (and FanGraphs), ad money goes right back into the operating budget. It’s an important part of the site’s lifeblood.

I happen to use an adblocker. For me, it’s not about the advertisements. As long as they don’t pop right in front of my content, I can ignore any ad. However, ads wreak havoc on Shockwave Player which is a key component of Chrome and Firefox. Every time Shockwave crashes I have to reload every tab. Occasionally, Chrome will crash entirely.

On one night, WordPress wasn’t autosaving correctly. I lost three nearly complete articles over the course of a few hours. In response, I decided to (re)install the adblocker. Since then, I’ve experienced precisely zero crashes. Because the software I use doesn’t actually support the ads that get pushed to me, I now consider the blocker to be an essential extension. I need my stuff to work.

I am getting somewhere with this. I’m left with a moral dilemma. On the one hand, I need my browser to function. On the other hand, I want to support sites like B-Ref and FanGraphs. The compromise solution is to white list them manually in my adblocker while continuing to block ads from ESPN, newspapers, and everything else.

2. Daily DFS – Smyly

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Lance Lynn and Dan Haren square off in the lonely early game. Next.

Late: Big names aplenty tonight. Madison Bumgarner is coming off a one-hit gem. Chris Sale and Zack Greinke have as high a ceiling as anyone in the league. Max Scherzer and Jose Fernandez are also aces, albeit with some modest concerns. Even Johnny Cueto and Masahiro Tanaka can called upon for a strong outing. Obviously, Cueto would be a ballsy pick after he fizzled through his last five starts. He still costs $10,200 on FanDuel.

Who’s a bargain hunter to use? One option is Drew Smyly. The Rays southpaw could pick up where Matt Moore (shockingly) left off last night. Smyly is $7,700. As with most Rays starters, you shouldn’t bet on more than five or six innings of work. Anything more is a bonus. Since returning from the disabled list, he’s twice crossed the double digit strikeouts threshold. The O’s continually disappoint against beatable opponents like Moore. Smyly is a couple classes better.

Stack Targets: Rick Porcello, Marcus Stroman,Tyler Wilson, Adam Morgan, Williams Perez, James Paxton, Brandon Finnegan, Zach Davies, Mike Pelfrey, Andrew Heaney, Felix Doubront, Ian Kennedy, Chad Bettis

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

You know how this works.

Logan Morrison v Yovani Gallardo
Delino DeShields, Mike Napoli v Paxton
Chris Colabello, Jose Bautista v Rick Porcello
Steve Pearce, Jonathan Schoop, Manny Machado v Smyly
Salvador Perez v Justin Verlander
Christian Yelich v Scherzer

4. SaberSim Observations

Is it fair to say Mike Trout is back? SaberSim never thought he left. He’s back to showing off his home run swing with frequency. He’s the top rated hitter tonight by a wide margin. Jose Bautista is ranked 11th. Personally, I consider him option 1b behind Trout tonight.

Here’s a weird tidbit. Matt Kemp is the fourth ranked hitter tonight. Ok, fine. He’s at Coors Field against Chad Bettis. It makes sense. Wil Myers is number eight on the list. I have some trepidation about that pick. Unlisted due to an illness is Justin Upton. He’s been out a few days now and could return tonight.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Corbin, Smith, Gyorko, Hicks

Pitchers to Start: Pat Corbin and Mike Leake face each other at the most pitcher friendly park in baseball. From Corbin’s perspective, he’ll get a banged up Giants lineup. Aside from a couple shaky outings, Corbin has pitched very well since returning from the disabled list. Just don’t expect more than six innings.

Leake’s tenure with San Francisco has been rocky. He’s allowed six home runs and 18 runs in 37.1 innings. If you roster Leake, you’re hoping for a quality start and enough run support to steal a win.

Also consider: Jerad Eickhoff

Pitchers to Exploit: Surely the Reds have set some sort of record for most terrible pitchers called upon in a season. The latest is Josh Smith. Unlike many of their call ups, Smith appears to possess some semblance of command. The issue is one of stuff. It’s of marginal quality. He’s still a better play than some of those hurlers they’ve called upon.

Also consider: Justin Nicolino, Wade Miley, Wei-Yin Chen, Matt Boyd, Ryan Weber, Robbie Erlin, Yohan Flande

Hitters (power): Jedd Gyorko’s home run barrage has been closed for a week. There’s nothing like a visit to Coors Field to re-open the flood gates. He likes left-handed ground ball pitchers too.

Also consider: Dustin Garneau, Wilin Rosario, A.J. Pierzynski, C.J. Cron, Eddie Rosario, Scooter Gennett, Khris Davis, Jonny Gomes, Brandon Guyer, Logan Forsythe, Richie Shaffer, J.P. Arencibia, Chris Colabello, Marlon Byrd

Hitters (speed): I’m not particularly bullish about most of the speed plays out there. Without a favorable matchup, guys like Ketel Marte and Kelby Tomlinson offer little hope beyond a possible single and a steal. For today, let’s call Aaron Hicks a stolen base threat. It’s not like he doesn’t run, he has 12 steals in 331 plate appearances. He offers four category production as the Twins leadoff.

Also consider: Brandon Barnes

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

We have two storm risks, but only one of them is at night. Both Chicago and Detroit are postponement risks today.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.