The Daily Grind: Setting the Stage
I’m running a little late due to dynasty trade discussions. Trying to make money through the buying and selling of teenagers is the anti-DFS.
AGENDA
- TDG Invitational
- Weather Reports
- Pitchers to Use and Abuse
- SaberSim Says…
- Setting the Stage
1.The Daily Grind Invitational
It’s pretty clear we all overthought things. Roc-pile walked away with victory by fitting a couple pitchers around a six-man Dodgers stack. Easy peasy. Congrats and Leaderboard.
A 14-game slate is ours tonight on FantasyDraft. See ya there.
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2. Weather Reports
Nah.
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
Jacob deGrom is the lone ace in the slate. For $21,300, he looks like a solid investment at home against the Braves. Mike Soroka ($17,600) may be an even better play. Just beware of hidden pitch counts. He’s coming off a sore shoulder-shortened outing. For somebody with his injury history, that’s concerning.
If you’re looking for name value, Jose Berrios is the next best thing to deGrom. For $21,200, you can roll the dice on a visit to the volatile White Sox at Guaranteed Home Run Rate Park. He should earn an easy victory, and there’s an obvious path to double-digit strikeouts. He’s a little overpriced for my liking though.
The Reds offense is a bit of an enigma. I’m still incredibly wary of targeting against them at home. So while Cole Hamels ($19,300) could easily earn his contract. I’m probably staying away. Similarly, I’m steering clear of Sonny Gray ($15,500) against an explosive Cubs lineup despite what looks like a friendly valuation on paper.
Mike Clevinger ($18,700) might also be pitch count constrained. Assuming he throws something like 90 pitches, that’s more than enough time to strike out eight Orioles in five innings. The only thing I don’t like about this matchup is homer friendly Camden Yards. John Means ($14,000) is a boring bargain play against a mostly hapless Indians unit.
Merrill Kelly ($18,000) recently steamrolled the Giants in Arizona. Now he gets a chance to repeat the feat in San Francisco. This is a safe if slightly overpriced play.
Walker Buehler didn’t work out yesterday, but that’s not stopping me from thinking long and hard about Hyun-Jin Ryu at Coors Field. The main attraction is a $17,100 price tag for a pitcher who routinely records over 20 points. As an added bonus, the Dodgers practically project to produce a double-digit run total again.
A few sleepy but playable targets include Wade Miley ($16,900) at home against the Mariners, Anibal Sanchez ($14,900) visiting the Tigers, Danny Duffy ($14,800) north of the border, and slumpy Chris Archer ($13,800) in a difficult trip to Milwaukee.
One bargain offers the shining hope for serious value. Elieser Hernandez ($13,100) recently handled the Phillies at their homertastic home park. Now Hernandez will receive the aid of homer-suppressing Marlins Stadium. A strikeout per inning over five or six frames is all that’s needed to produce a mid-teens point total.
Favorites: Clevinger, Ryu, Hernandez
Stack Targets: Sean Reid-Foley, Antonio Senzatela, Noe Ramirez, Carson Fulmer et al, Jhoulys Chacin, Daniel Norris, Tommy Milone
4. SaberSim Says…
The simulator is loading projections…
deGrom, Clevinger, Lance Lynn, Berrios, and Ryu are the top-rated pitchers. I just don’t feel good about fastball-only Lynn against the Rays. Maybe if he was left-handed. Values include Chacin, deGrom, Clevinger, Hernandez, and Eric Lauer. SaberSim always likes Chacin, and it’s always wrong.
Cody Bellinger, Max Muncy, Joc Pederson, Mike Trout, and Christian Yelich lead the way among hitters. I feel like Trout and Yelich could sort of slip through the cracks with this Dodgers stack at Coors. Humberto Arteaga, Vladito, Wilkin Castillo, Nicky Lopez, and Mark Reynolds form the city council of bargaintown. The denizens of bargaintown finally realized electing five mayors isn’t reasonable.
5. Setting the Stage
Aaron Nola one-hit the Mets over seven innings.
Hector Neris looked gassed yesterday when he blew Nola’s 1-0 lead in the top of the ninth. That set the stage for Edwin Diaz…
Craig Kimbrel rediscovered his velocity between Triple-A and the Majors.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Soroka is coming off a HBP to his forearm, not a sore shoulder
Exactly – do not say sore shoulder!
Ryu at Coors a huge gamble. He’s had 4 starts in his career at Coors. 16.2 innings(which should tell you something). A 7.56 ERA .364 avg against, 5 homers, and a 1.119 OPS against.
And looking, those 4 starts- 1 was in 2014- 2 runs in 6 innings. The other 3 were in 2017 where he had a 10.13 ERA and gave up 4 homers.
I think I’d totally stay clear of Ryu for sure.
It’s certainly reasonable to avoid Coors. But Ryu is also a different pitcher now. His SSS history isn’t instructive and shouldn’t be a part of any decision making.
Almost any where else I’d agree with you. But Coors is a whole different animal. And it’s really extreme now- last 5 games there Rockies have scored 56 runs and gone 2-3 as they’ve given up 56 runs.
Also some guys stuff doesn’t play at Coors vs other parks given the altitude. Think Ryu may be one of those.
Like I said, completely reasonable to avoid Coors because it’s Coors. I just don’t think any other hand wringing is necessary. You either think Ryu can hit his usual 20 points or you’re scared of the park. What he did in 2017 when he was a flat out mediocre pitcher isn’t helping any analysis. We do know sinker baller and ground ball pitchers are worst off at Coors which is a point against Ryu.
EVERYONE is a bad gamble at Coors. I’m not going to look up the exact number but Kershaw has a career ERA at Coors of like 4.50 and he’s pitched there quite a bit so it isn’t even SSS. If the best pitcher of the last 15 years can’t figure it out, nobody can.
I’d be real tempted to take a flyer on is Anibal Sanchez going up against the Tigers. Since returning from the DL he’s 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 24 K’s in 29.1 innings. Oh, and did I mention they’re playing the Tigers, the worst offense in MLB?
He’s my target. BTW, I know this article is focused on daily, but Sanchez’s next start should be the Marlins and if he gets bumped a day for some reason it would be the Royals. Assuming they reset the rotation coming out of the AS break and he goes 4th, he would then get the Orioles on the road. That’s a nice 3 game run for him. . . .
true. but then that stops- as next 3 would be @ Atlanta, Dodgers, and Atlanta.
Yep
Hmm, I totally meant to write about him. Either FDraft didn’t have him listed or I overlooked him.
Soroka did not have a sore shoulder last outing. He was hit in the pitching arm while batting and pulled. He was still sore when he threw on the side on Tuesday, but apparently was better Wednesday.