The Daily Grind: Saltman and K-Pax

It’s the first Thin Thursday of the season. The overall schedule is relatively deep with 12 games. However, it’s all split into weird contest sizes. Prices listed are for FanDuel.

AGENDA

1. Saltman and K-Pax
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. Fade Fade Fade
5. SaberSim Says…
6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Saltman and K-Pax

Plenty of interesting things happened yesterday – mostly after I went to bed. One game I watched closely was the Charlie Morton versus James Paxton matchup at Minute Maid Park. Morton looked sharp, commanding the strike zone while using his sweeping curve to induce three of four strikeouts. Morton went six innings and allowed two runs against a tough Mariners lineup. Here are some highlights courtesy of MLB. One important note, Morton’s curve was much more 12-6 last season.

Paxton went the same six innings, but he held the mashtastic Astros scoreless. He recorded five strikeouts. If you watch this highlight reel, you’ll notice two of his strikeouts reached base. Whereas Morton had to use finesse to record his punch outs, Paxton overwhelmed his opponents. Some of those swings were UGLY. K-Pax looked the part of an ace yesterday.

2. Weather Reports

If the weather report is to be believed, the Pirates-Red Sox game will be rained out. That’s awkward for make-up purposes since they won’t meet again. Cincinnati, Oakland, and Washington D.C., all have a chance for rain. Based on my inexpert opinion, I think they’ll all be played – possibly after lengthy delays.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Early Slate: The early slate has the most games. As we discussed, one of six contests will vanish into the aether. None of the pitchers are particularly noteworthy. John Lackey is the best of the bunch, but he doesn’t provide good value for his $8,700 price tag. Jason Hammel is similarly situated at $7,900. I prefer him versus a weird Minnesota offense.

Matt Boyd would be far and away my favorite selection. Early reports have the wind blowing out at 20 to 30 mph. As a fly ball pitcher, perhaps that is not ideal.

Stack Targets: All of them?, James Shields, Rookie Davis, Kyle Gibson, Antonio Senzatela, Clay Buchholz, Lance Lynn, Chase Anderson

Afternoon Slate: We have three games in the afternoon. With one exception, all of the pitchers fall into the very high risk, medium reward bucket. Gio Gonzalez and Tyler Skaggs are the most expensive options, but I greatly prefer Brandon McCarthy versus the Padres or Andrew Triggs opposite the Trouts.

Stack Targets: Jered Weaver

Late Slate: The so-called main slate has four games and includes all of the interesting pitching. With the exception of Ariel Miranda, they’re all clustered between $7,200 and $8,600. Jeff Samardzija is on the expensive end of the spectrum opposite Robbie Ray. That game could produce a few strikeouts. I’m expecting 10 runs too (to my shock, Vegas agrees with 9.5 runs projected).

Blake Snell has the strikeouts, but my money is on the better (and cheaper) Marcus Stroman. Snell is the type of pitcher who has 4.2 inning outings. Stroman should cruise through six frames.

Others to consider include Matt Harvey hosting Jaime Garcia and Joe Musgrove.

Stack Targets: Miranda

4. Fade Fade Fade

It’s exceptionally difficult to name fades for these tiny contests. You’ll be looking for bad hitters at the top of lineups and good hitters at the bottom.

Stars: I’m not sure which $4,000 first baseman will be underowned, but at least one of Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, and Anthony Rizzo will find themselves below 10 percent owned – the break even for the contest. All have exceptionally good matchups. Rizzo’s the only one without a friendly park for hitters.

I think Jean Segura will be the shortstop to slip through the cracks today. Musgrove is well regarded, but he has some meltdown risk.

Bargains: On the cheap end, I’ll take Tommy Joseph all day, every day for $2,000 at Great American Ballpark. His start against Brandon Finnegan didn’t work out. Davis’ pitch-to-contact repertoire is another good matchup.

The Tigers offense could go nuts, giving Jose Iglesias some solid interactive effects for $2,100.

5. SaberSim Says…

McCarthy, Ray, Snell, Garcia, and Harvey are rated as the top pitchers of the day. McCarthy also rates as the best value by a wide margin. I’m not quite buying his 38.72 point projection as a mean/median. I can certainly see how he’ll get there, but McCarthy carries considerable risk of lineup ruination. Would anyone really be surprised if he failed to last three innings? Meanwhile, the upside is probably six frames with a win and QS – roughly 31 to 37 points.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

Congrats to evilk333. A combination of Jacob deGrom, J.T. Realmuto, and Chris Owings supplied most of the fire power. I’m a tad peeved because I talked myself out of Realmuto and Owings at the last minute in favor of Greg Bird and Aaron Judge. Both Yankees zeroed out. Check out the leaderboard (flip to the FanDuel tab).

With the weird split slates today, let’s try to target the largest contest. That’s the six-game, 12:35pm ET start time. We’re on FanDuel today for the usual $2.