Checking in on Dallas Keuchel

Half a week in the books. How’s your team doing? I wanted to write a SELL, SELL, SELL!! piece but that seemed a tad premature. So instead, let’s check in on Dallas Keuchel, a divisive player entering 2016 and once again in 2017. With concerns swirling around the Houston lefty given last year’s undeniable decline in both performance and health, I was eager to see him pitch the Astros’ opener against Seattle.

Coming off his 2015 Cy Young campaign, Keuchel was a polarizing figure. A ground ball pitcher with impeccable command, detractors fretted about his lack of velocity. Well, if his cheddar was in short supply to begin with, the fromagerie was flat out barren in 2016. Keuchel lost a tick on the gun, averaging 88 mph on his fastball through his first 10 starts. But that wasn’t all. His pitches were down nearly across the board.

Perhaps more alarming was that he seemingly lost the strike zone. After walking just 5.6% of batters during his Cy Young season, Keuchel gave away first base to nearly 7% of opposing batters last year, falling from 22^nd best among qualified starters to 33^rd among those who tossed at least 160 innings.

Now, Keuchel makes his living in the nether regions of the strike zone and as such has always posted low zone percentages. But through a combination of elevated chase rates and ground balls, he’s succeeded despite throwing fewer strikes than your typical ace.

Last year, however something changed. Keuchel threw 41.6% of his pitches in the zone, still well below league average. In fact, it was the 10^th lowest zone percentage in the league, again among those who tossed at least 160 innings. But surprisingly, it also represented his highest since 2013. So, he threw more strikes yet his walk rate went up? A look at his heatmaps suggests Keuchel’s struggles in 2016 were related to command rather than control, throwing in the zone more often but to less advantageous locations.

Notice how his pitches drifted up and over the plate in 2016, resulting not only in a higher zone percentage but also dramatically higher exit velocities.

As for the walks, hitters just didn’t bite. They swung at only 30% of his pitches out of the zone, the lowest rate of his career. And for the first time, Keuchel fared worse than league average in induced chase rate.

By the end of the season, Keuchel eventually rediscovered some of his missing velocity, averaging 89.0 mph or higher in five of his final eight starts. He also managed his walks more effectively but by that point the damage had been done. He was shut down at the end of August due to shoulder pain despite Houston’s position in the AL Wild Card race. This offseason Keuchel acknowledged what we all suspected back in April, that he pitched with pain through the entirety of 2016. So, in his debut on Tuesday I was eager to look for a couple things. First, where was he sitting on the radar gun and secondly, where was he locating?

On its surface, Keuchel’s line appears to signal a return to form, at least as much as any single start can. In 7 innings of work, Keuchel didn’t allow a run while giving up just two hits. He also generated 11 ground balls, good for a 69% ground ball rate. Vintage Keuchel, right?

Initially, it was encouraging to see him sitting at 89 mph, which is on par with his career average. But we now know that in officially switching to Statcast, MLB is measuring velocity differently this year. Because it measures the velocity closer to the ball’s release point, we’re looking at readings inflated by about one mile per hour. Therefore, it’s not clear, despite his declaration that “everything was back to normal,” that things really are. At least, from a velocity standpoint, the jury is still out. And that’s important because as last year proved, Keuchel can’t leak much gas and still remain effective, so it’s important he recover what little he can.

As for his location, there aren’t many pitchers you can say this about but encouragingly, Keuchel “struggled” to pound the zone. Just 31.8% of his pitches ended up in the strike zone, second lowest among starters through Tuesday. But that’s control, not command and with Keuchel, we want to see low zone percentages combined with a bottom-of-the-strike-zone lit up like a Die Hard movie.

Ding, ding, ding, ding! As Jonah Pemstein elucidated earlier this week, Keuchel set personal records for locating down in the zone, leading to a prolific ground ball rate and a dearth of hard hit balls in his lone start. That’s that we want to see from him. When Keuchel is on, his command is so spectacular that he can still manage strong walk rates despite miniscule zone percentages. And while he didn’t showcase that ability on Tuesday, walking a couple and beaning another, we’re just one start in. So, let’s give him time. The important takeaways are that the soft tossing lefty pitched efficiently deep into the game, pounded the bottom of the zone with the relentless precision we expect, and said he felt great afterwards.

Notably, Keuchel also switched up his pitch mix a bit, scrapping his 4-seamer in favor of his cutter and changeup.

It’s too early to say what this means or whether it’ll even continue moving forward but he did induce a healthy number of whiffs with his change and grounders with his cutter. Along with the velocity, his pitch mix is something to keep an eye on.

If you were looking for a buy or sell recommendation, it’s April 6^th. You should know better. But there were encouraging signs from the former Cy Young winner on Tuesday. Keuchel’s owners await his second start at home against the Royals with bated breath.