The Daily Grind: Raking in the Garden

We had a good chat in the comments yesterday. What follows is somewhat of a continuation.

AGENDA

  1. Rakes
  2. Weather Reports
  3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
  4. Players to Avoid
  5. SaberSim Says…
  6. TDG Invitational Returns!

1. Rakes

Every year, I whine about rakes for the better part of the season. Here are a few samples from today.

$6 FanDuel ENORMOUS Squeeze – 58,823 entrees, $300,000 prize, $52,938 rake (15 percent rake)
$33 FanDuel Grand Slam Special – 4,456 entrees, $125,000 prize, $22,048 rake (15 percent rake)
$2 FanDuel MLB BIG Double Up – 14,942 entrees, $26,000 prize, $3,884 rake (13 percent rake)
$8 DraftKings Crazy 8’s – 51,470 entrees, $350,000 prize, $61,760 rake (15 percent rake)
$2 DraftKings Double Up – 5,747 entrees, $10,000 prize, $1,494 rake (13 percent rake)

I think that’s sufficient to prove my point. GPPs are raked at a 15 percent rate and 50/50s have the lesser but still atrocious 13 percent rake. While I didn’t keep detailed notes, I am certain these are higher than past seasons. The 50/50 rake is almost impossible to beat over any period of time – certainly in any meaningful way. It will always be possible to come out ahead playing GPPs since one special night can bankroll multiple seasons. If you’re approaching DFS as a way to make money, you almost certainly won’t. The sites just take in too much money. I get that they have to eat too, but it feels like they’re doing it wrong if they need this much money to cover operating costs (by all reports, the sites don’t make money… in an accounting sense at least)

Yahoo appears to rake at a 12 percent rate, but their GPPs are tiny in comparison. If anybody else knows of a site with a smaller rake (say, five percent), please refer me.

2. Weather Reports

Kansas City might get some sprinkles late in the game. It’s not really a risk. We’re go for a 15 game mega-slate.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: So. Much. Pitching. Chris Sale is Clayton Kershaw this year. Even for $12,500, he should be uber-popular versus Alec Asher.

Corey Kluber faces Justin Verlander in Detroit. Both aces have disappointed their owners to this point. Their skills appear to be intact. They started slow last April too before competing for the Cy Young.

Jon Lester is coming off consecutive five-run outings versus middling opponents. The Phillies are another such middling opponent. Do note, his velocity is down nearly two mph. Most of his woes can be pinned upon a .349 BABIP.

Masahiro Tanaka has gotten stronger with every outing. His DraftKings point totals: -8, 8.1, 18.1, 25, 33.5. It’s a nice little progression even if it mean diddlysquat. He recorded a complete game shutout of the Red Sox last time out, but he only fanned three hitters. His strikeouts are down overall. He’s maintained an impressive 12.3 percent whiff rate. Perhaps the Ks will come versus a terrible Blue Jays offense.

James Paxton is the breakout star of 2017. He’s held opponents scoreless in four of five starts. The other one was a five run clunker against the Athletics. If Paxton can stay healthy, he has the stuff of a Cy Young pitcher. And as long as he avoids Mike Trout’s barrel, he’s in good shape tonight.

I’m fascinated by Carlos Martinez’s matchup with the Brewers. His strikeouts are way up even as his results suffer the vagaries of small sample baseball. Milwaukee, as we know, is extremely strikeout prone. They’re also an explosive offense capable of ruining a night.

Alex Wood already manhandled the Giants last week. Everything is looking up for the southpaw – except his future in the Dodgers rotation. He’s throwing like their best non-Kershaw, yet a numbers game will soon force him back to the bullpen. He’s finally stretched out enough for a full six to seven inning start. I didn’t notice Hyun-Jin Ryu was placed on the disabled list yesterday

Jose Quintana, Cole Hamels, Danny Duffy, and Matt Moore are on the docket too. Most of the targets below aren’t actually bad.

Stack Targets: Asher, Trevor Cahill, Mat Latos, Wily Peralta, Tyler Glasnow, Mike Fiers, Scott Feldman, R.A. Dickey, Tyler Chatwood, Alex Cobb, Edinson Volquez, Jeremy Hellickson, Sonny Gray, Taijuan Walker

4. Players to Avoid

I’ll probably pass on paying for Lester. As I noted, tonight’s second ranked pitcher is dealing with a loss of velocity. The matchup is fine, but we can probably do better with $10,600.

Chatwood may be the best bargain among starters today. He faces the puny Padres at a cost of $6,900. Unfortunately, his is a skill set that doesn’t really play up against bad opponents. Count on him being average to slightly worse versus virtually any offense.

It’s always tempting to use Paul Goldschmidt. You may want to pass opposite ground ball-ist Tanner Roark. Too many grounders and singles…

Josh Harrison hit two home runs yesterday. That translates to an instant increase in ownership even though he’s still a low value singles hitter. SaberSim ranks him second at third base. I prefer beefier options.

5. SaberSim Says…

Sale, Lester, CMart, Paxton, and Kluber top the charts. On the hitting side, it’s Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Hanley Ramirez, and Anthony Rizzo.

6. The Daily Grind Invitational

You know you’ve had a blessed day when Harrison hits two home runs. Congrats to erminesays for his selection of Harrison, Jedd Gyorko, Billy Hamilton, and Michael Conforto. They all went nuts. His 236 point total would have scored fourth ($5,000) in the FanDuel Squeeze. The leaderboard is updated.

Glad tidings! We move to DraftKings for the next two days.





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

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Scott Daugherty
6 years ago

I didn’t need to hear that I would have been 4th in the Squeeze. I was happy winning $500 on Draftkings. Now I’m a little depressed :/

Not really, I’ll take 500 everytime. Best of Luck to everyone tonight.

Hamilton is going to be the play of the day. He owns the Pirates, and Glasnow is the perfect storm. Walks everyone and can’t hold runners on.