The Daily Grind: Probably Don’t Run To First Base

Streaming Wars will probably return tomorrow. Bonus content is always the first cut to the sweaty demands of time.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Soft Contact King

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

Mrschaef is crushing it. He (or is it Mrs. Chaef?) ran identical lineups last night to take first and second place. Kendrys Morales, Zack Wheeler, and Max Kepler were the top performers. Mrschaef also nabbed the win last Friday. That’s $58 on $6 of entries. Contrats and Leaderboard.

We have our usual 52 entry Invitation on FantasyDraft. Come be the next mrschaef.

If you have not signed up for FantasyDraft, please use this referral link for tracking purposes. If I understand properly, by using the referral, you will receive a 10 percent return on any rakes you pay.

2. Weather Reports

Heavy weather will open your eyes. Pittsburgh is a serious postponement risk with Washington, Detroit, Chicago (AL), and Colorado in danger of delays or worse. Pay attention to DFS weatherman Kevin Roth this afternoon.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Main Slate: Even if weather interrupts the slate, we’ll still have plenty to work with as part of a 15 game slate. Despite the deep pool of talent, few pitchers stand out. Pat Corbin ($23,100) hosting the Trout-less Angels is an obvious top play. Next most expensive is Blake Snell ($22,200). Looks like another must-use play opposite the pitiful Royals.

Elsewhere, Jose Berrios ($21,600) benefits from visiting the strikeout prone White Sox. Berrios is the only day-ace with a weather warning. He’s opposite touted prospect Michael Kopech ($14,900) in his major league debut. He’s pretty aggressively priced for a pitcher making his first start. Kopech is a dangerous high risk, high reward play. The math works for GPP participants – not in cash games.

Masahiro Tanaka could keep pace with the best pitchers today, especially with the help of Yankee Stadium South (Marlins Stadium). Speaking of pace…

Masahiro Tanaka probably isn’t going to hustle to first base tonight.

— Brad Johnson (@BaseballATeam) August 21, 2018

If you don’t recall, Tanaka famously strained both hamstrings while scampering home earlier this season (around 18 seconds in). The DH truthers used this as an excuse to replace NL rules. Color me unimpressed.

I thought Hyun-Jin Ryu might be rusty last week. He was not. $17,800 is par value versus the hot Cardinals and Daniel Poncedeleon ($14,800). Poncy is very overpriced. He should cost $9,500.

The best bargain is probably Vince Velasquez ($13,900). The righty is a random number generator. Four of his last six starts have scored fewer than nine points. The other two were 30 point gems. The Nationals sure aren’t an easy opponent, but they may be without Daniel Murphy by this evening. That would be a demoralizing blow to the Washington roster.

Kevin Gausman ($13,700) at PNC Park is an alternative random number machine. Other playable arms include Tyler Anderson ($13,900) hosting the Padres at Coors Field, Dylan Bundy ($14,600) at Sam Gaviglio ($14,000), Tanner Roark ($15,400) and Kyle Hendricks ($17,000) in Detroit. Last but not least, Brad Peacock ($11,400) would be very interesting if I thought he’d survive five innings.

Stack Targets: Felix Pena, Ivan Nova, Mike Leake, Steven Matz, Pablo Lopez, Ariel Jurado, Sal Romano, Glenn Sparkman, Robbie Erlin

4. SaberSim Says…

Snell, Tanaka, Corbin, Junior Guerra, and Berrios are the preferred arms tonight. Snell is projected to crush the competition. I thought the best arms were more closely banded together. Playable values include Guerra, Brett Anderson, Chris Stratton, and Gaviglio.

Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, and Mookie Betts lead the bats. No surprises here. Brandon Lowe remains a favorite value target. He’s joined by David Bote, David Fletcher, Ian Happ, and Logan Forsythe.

5. Soft Contact King

When trying to acquire Dee Gordon in an OBP dynasty league last winter, I emphasized my distrust of his high high soft contact rate and impatience at the plate. We didn’t work out a deal. This is the kind of thing I was talking about.