The Daily Grind: Par For Value

James Karinchak is the new best thing.

James Karinchak, Knee-Buckling 85mph Curveball & Tornado Tom Hallion's Legendary K Yell. 😯🌪️

This is everything. pic.twitter.com/q55fLbEP4Z

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 20, 2019

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. 40/40/li>

1. The Daily Grind Invitational

RaleighFingers is surging up the Leaderboard with some recent victories. Yesterday, he rode a deep Twins stack to the top of the heap. Congrats!

We have 14 games on the docket for the second-to-last Friday on FantasyDraft.

2. Weather Reports

La~dee~dah

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Shane Bieber ($23,900) is the leading lady tonight by a $2,000 margain, and yet he doesn’t represent my top choice. Sure, Biebs is likely to pitch well against a frustrated Phillies team. The win bonus is within reach too. However, this looks like a par value price tag. I’ve gotten used to my aces being deep bargains.

Like Jacob deGrom ($21,900). He consistently fires seven glorious innings with a daily chance for double-digit strikeouts. While his situation – at GABP opposite Luis Castillo ($20,200) – is far from ideal, he’s easily preferable to Bieber. And that’s before considering cost. For his part, Castillo is an extremely effective pitcher too. While deGrom is definitely the smart play in a first-order kind of way, any sort of contrarian approach to this slate should begin with Castillo.

After a remarkably consistent season, Clayton Kershaw ($21,300) has scuffled a bit down the stretch. Still, he looks like a relatively safe play against the Rockies. To preserve him for the playoffs, expect a tame informal pitch count for Kershaw – something like 90 pitches.

Zack Greinke ($18,800) has the pleasure of facing off against the Angel’s Triple-A roster in what should be an easy victory. If par value aces are your thing (i.e. Bieber or Kershaw), I might consider banking the savings with a downgrade to Greinke.

Mike Foltynewicz ($17,900) has sharpened his command just in time for the postseason. First, he has to prove he’s locked in his recent gains by carving through a weak Giants lineup.

Dylan Cease ($16,200) is a tad overpriced considering his generalized struggles in the majors. However, since he’s visiting the Tigers, we can’t exactly ignore him. Cease has already shown he can reach mid-20s point totals against good opponents. Imagine how he’ll fare versus a minor league foe.

Speaking of minor league lineups, Anibal Sanchez ($15,800) should dance to an easy win tonight. This price tag is roughly par value… for his 25th percentile outcome. As a Anibal bandwagoner, I’m going to have a hard time resisting this particular siren song.

FDraft is hiding Charlie Morton ($21,400). He’s expensive, and he’s set to face what we normally think of as an excellent Red Sox lineup. However, they’re down one Mookie Betts. Downgrade that “excellent rating” to “very good.” Morton is another par value ace.

If you’re using an expensive Twins slate and deGrom, then you might consider Steven Brault ($8,100) who almost can’t help returning some value on this price tag. At least, it seems like that should be true. His last four outings went for 1.25, 20.05, 0.60, and -16.60 points. That one positive outing was at Coors Field. Huh?

Favorite Plays: deGrom, Greinke, A Nibble

Stack Targets: Peter Lambert, Drew Smyly, Jaime Barria, Tyler Beede, Robert Dugger, Rick Porcello, Jordan Zimmermann, Richard Bleier, Felix Hernandez, Eric Skoglund, Jacob Waguespack

Honestly, I could keep going…

4. SaberSim Says…

deGrom, Bieber, Kershaw, Morton, and Greinke predictably lead the slate per our robot overlord. Brault, deGrom, Zimmermann, Sanchez, and Greinke are the value plays. It feels good when my semi-subjective impressions agree with the objective machine.

Big Nellie Style, Mitch Garver, Yordan Alvarez, Francisco Lindor, and Maximum Muncy are the premo-bats. Ryan McBroom, Jake Rogers, Brian O’Grady, Lewis Brinson, and Meibrys Viloria are the cheapies. Has anybody ever actually profited with Brinson? I know he has The Face or something, but I can’t figure out why he gets to play in the majors.

5. 40/40

Now he just needs three steals to go 40/40.

The bar I was at last night turned off the Cardinals-Cubs game to watch this one…

Grenade!