The Daily Grind: New Record!
AGENDA
- New Record!
- Weather Reports
- Pitchers to Use and Abuse
- Players to Avoid
- SaberSim Says…
- TDG Invitational Returns!
1. New Record!
If you had the wherewithal to start Anthony Rendon versus Noah Syndergaard, you were handed an automatic victory. Rendon is viewed as a solid if unspectacular player. He does post a couple four or five hit games per season. Yesterday, he went 6-for-6 with three home runs, six runs, and 10 RBI. He scored 71 DK points and 99 FD points.
Notice he missed four home runs by a couple feet?
On a separate note, the Nationals outburst was made possible by another Mets injury kerfuffle. Here’s what I said yesterday morning.
Noah Syndergaard maybe won’t get bumped this time. The Mets wanted to perform an MRI on his biceps strain, but he told them to piss off. I wonder what the Mets players think about their training staff. From an outsider’s perspective, no team has been more reactive and lost looking than the Mets when it comes to injury management.
2. Weather Reports
New York and Chicago have a chance for storms – somewhere in the 30 to 45 percent range. The other venues will probably be dry.
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
Main Slate: All 11 games are in the main slate tonight. It’s Clayton Kershaw day but he’s opposed by Johnny Cueto. Mega bummer when the aces cancel each other out. Kershaw is $3,400 more than the next priciest pitcher… which just so happens to be Cueto.
We have some interesting alternatives to Kershaw. Lance McCullers teases us with huge strikeout totals. He’s sitting on a near-automatic victory versus Andrew Cashner. The only thing standing in his way is his own ability to pitch five innings. Oh, the Texas offense isn’t an easy assignment either.
Jason Vargas gets a rematch versus the White Sox, aka the only team to hit him this season. The southpaw is working inside more effectively, and he’s getting even more out of his plus changeup. He’s become a poor man’s Cole Hamels. For $8,700, he’s only a $300 discount from actual Cole Hamels.
As I was selling Luis Severino this offseason (I didn’t have roster space for him), I told everybody this would happen. He’s pitched excellently, and the Blue Jays offense is an empty shell. The most surprising thing(s) about Severino’s fast start are his long outings. I’m sure there’s a penis joke in there somewhere…
Fellow young gun Dylan Bundy has a tougher task taming the Red Sox. The Mets need Robert Gsellman to go deep tonight. Maybe the better play is his opponent Julio Teheran.
Stack Targets: Cashner, Dylan Covey, Daniel Norris, Vince Velasquez, Trevor Bauer
4. Players to Avoid
Kershaw is returning from a minor calf injury. As Syndergaard taught us yesterday, returns from even minor injuries can be instantly ruinous. For $12,600, even a solid night can torpedo your roster. While I suggest caution, there’s over a 75 percent chance I’ll use him on my personal roster.
There’s a whole Cubs stack out there opposite Velasquez of which Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber are the top names. Velasquez is hopelessly volatile which in turn adds volatility to these three studs. They’re not as safe as their collective, $12,300 price.
SaberSim always thinks Jonathan Villar is going to be a monster. I’ll pass. Even if he reaches base, the running game is seemingly shut down by Yadier Molina and Michael Wacha.
Yulieski Gurriel should be a tempting bargain option at $2,600. Unfortunately, he’s a ground ball hitter versus a (bad) ground ball pitcher. I might steer clear of Carlos Correa for a different reason – at only $3,500, he should be 350 percent owned. The crazy part is that Francisco Lindor is the only shortstop who costs more.
Did I miss the time when Andrew McCutchen was good? No, I saw it happen in 2015. Since then, he’s been Jayson Werth with less power and fewer strikeouts. Both SaberSim and FanDuel ($3,800) seem to love him. Shrug?
5. SaberSim Says…
Kershaw, McCullers, Rick Porcello, Severino, and Bauer top the charts. I’m out on Bauer. He’s homer prone, has minus command, and his elevated strikeout rate is completely unsupported by any peripherals. Top hitters are Rizzo, Mookie Betts, McCutchen, Bryant, and Schwarber. Now where have I heard four of those names…
6. The Daily Grind Invitational
Congrats to donslaughtonslaught for his big 203.9 point win on Friday. The difference makers were his outfield of Mike Trout, Dexter Fowler, and Ryan Braun. They supplied a combined 90.8 points. We were all priced in to using Manny Machado’s 40.9 points. After one month, hoehne2 completely wrecked us on the leaderboard. He placed in six of 13 FanDuel contests.
We’re back on FanDuel today.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
I wonder how you and the other folks who play a lot of DFS look at the slates that dont have a full compliment of games.
I find it hard to fill out a unique and capable line-up when there are not a full amount of games. And tend to just avoid these days because one guy getting the random day off can just completely change everything you were doing….
I hate full days, they’re completely random. Small slates allow me to internalize the full field and maximize without worrying about ownership (they’re all owned). I prefer four to five games.
Today’s still a little large for my tastes.
I prefer six to eight games. There are enough options, but not too many. Less than that it often comes down to one or two players that make the difference, because most people have very similar lineups. That’s just me, everyone is different.
Brad,
Thanks again for your time and effort. It’s greatly appreciated.
Wind is forecasted to be blowing out to center at Wrigley at 20MPH with gusts up to 40. Vegas opened with the over/under at 10.5 runs (MLB average is 8.5 or so).
I’m sitting Vince Velasquez today.
So someone has to be the voice of reason here and say that Rendon’s big day was completely random. The discouraging thing about DFS Baseball is that there’s no way to project these monster days we are seeing. You just have to be lucky enough to have the guy I guess.
Oh absolutely. I’ve always said GPPs are a lottery.
Have you found cash games to be any better? It seems like people just throw their gpp lineup in cash games now so that is messing up the nature of a “safe” cash lineup now. Well not that in baseball there’s ever a such thing as a safe lineup…
I don’t play cash games, I don’t believe the rakes can be beaten.
So, DFS GPPs are akin to playing the lottery — so where’s the skill/what is the point?
It’s fun. And it is a slightly skilled lottery.
Slightly skilled lottery is an excellent way to put it because the guy can have the best matchup in the world and still go 0-5 giving you a big fat 0. Or a good pitcher can be going up against a horrible batting team and then they just tee off on him for some reason. I find that most of my research can give me at least half the guys I need. Which half comes through is up to them, but I’ve been doing this for a couple of years now and I really believe you cannot project a full lineup of players performance on a day by day basis.
I’d like for whoever that voted down my comment to tell me why they believe it is possible to daily project a player’s performance.I think it absolutely can be done with a decent accuracy over a period of a year, but how can you daily project or predict a big performance from a batter?
I voted this one down just because.
Ha ha. So what are the important elements of a GPP lineup for you? I’m just trying to understand because I’ve looked at many stats and still can’t seem to get more than half the lineup right. Which is never enough to win anything substantial.
Generally, you need a max ceiling SP, a stack of some kind, and at least one dark horse barely owned guy. Can be part of the stack.
Incidentally, I like small slates more because you can get away from the standard stacks and scrub.
Ok thanks Brad. I enjoy the articles!
Molina isn’t so great against stolen bases anymore. He was the third worst rated amongst qualified catchers at 21.2% last year.
Thanks, I’ll look into that.