The Daily Grind: Mucking

Sometimes we’re asked to sort through mucky slates. This is one of them.

AGENDA

1. TDG Invitational
2. Weather Reports
3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse
4. SaberSim Says…
5. Wait for it…

1.The Daily Grind Invitational

Niffoc4 narrowly scraped a win by a margin of 0.45 points. Everybody except Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper contributed positively. Congrats and Leaderboard.

We have another 10-game slate on FantasyDraft. Pretty meaty for a Thursday.

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2. Weather Reports

It might rain a bit in Washington. Postponement looks unlikely, although that was also the case on Monday and Tuesday. I’m sure the Nats and Phillies are tired of this.

3. Pitchers to Use and Abuse

Charlie Morton ($22,100) is visiting Frankie Montas ($19,600) in a battle of two good pitchers versus a pair of quality offenses. While these are good prices to pay for their performances to date, I have to imagine their mean point totals should be somewhere around 15 to 18. On the plus side, this is a fugly slate of pitchers so few carry their upside (it’s why they cost so much, I assume).

Jake Odorizzi ($21,400) has rediscovered life after years in purgatory. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher and the Royals do have one of the highest team ground ball rates in the league. That makes this a deceptively difficult matchup for Odorizzi. I’d usually scoff at this price for him but, again, you’ll see…

I suppose Madison Bumgarner ($17,700) is playable if you don’t mind bathing in risk. Of course, the Julio Urias ($15,500) side of the equation would normally be far more attractive if only for the favorable matchup. Alas, Urias hasn’t thrown more than three innings since April 18.

Jose Suarez should earn an easy victory against the Blue Jays. Even though they’re especially bad against left-handed pitching, I see it as an uphill battle for him to return value on his $16,200 price tag.

Nick Pivetta ($16,000) is one of the few who has roster-carrying upside. It’s a shame he has to navigate the Nationals lineup.

Zac Gallen is making his debut at a reasonable $14,400. He’s opposed by Adam Wainwright ($15,000). Coincidentally, it was the Cardinals who drafted and eventually traded Gallen to the Marlins. I think they’re both par value plays.

If I was the type to hold things back for myself, I wouldn’t point out that Wade LeBlanc is expected to follow tonight, will face a terrible Orioles offense, and should receive run support opposite homer-prone Dylan Bundy. Then again, Bundy ($14,600) has a long string of tolerable outings, many of them against quality opponents.

Tanner Roark is priced to move at $12,700. While the matchup against the Brewers at GA Smallpark is terrifying, we’re being baited into it at this price. He’s probably one of the best values in the slate even if his floor and ceiling are sketchy. Besides, he should receive run support.

Favorite Plays: Odorizzi, Pivetta, Gallen, Bundy, LeBlanc

Stack Targets: Jimmy Nelson, Walker Lockett, Erick Fedde, Clayton Richard, Chad Green, Tyler Chatwood

Nelson’s velocity is down and his command is crap.

4. SaberSim Says…

Odorizzi, Morton, Waino, Montas, and Roark are the top-rated pitchers in the slate. I’m surprised to see Roark here which means he must be the top value too. Let’s sort. Yep, it’s Roark, Gallen, Bundy, LeBlanc, and Jose Suarez.

Mike Trout, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Luke Voit, and Bryce Harper lead the charge among the batters. Yankee Stadium is going to be crowded tonight. Kyle Garlick, Jake Cave, Vladito, Matt Adams, and Renato Nunez are the early bargains.

5. Wait for it…

Sure, when I do this, I get called for a balk. (technically, only the opposing team calls the balk, the umpires placidly wait for me to throw the damn ball).

Hansel Robles was messing with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s timing with perhaps the longest delivery ever for a 100 mph fastball.

Vladito wasn’t happy about it. pic.twitter.com/FhlYHXEeRr

— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) June 19, 2019

The matchup against Aaron Sanchez was so obviously favorable.