The Daily Grind: Lester, Nelson, Adonis

Agenda

1. It’s the Standings, Stupid
2. Daily DFS – Lester, McCullers
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Nelson, Buchanan, Adonis, Dyson
5. Factor Grid

1. It’s the Standings, Stupid

According to some old guy, the key to winning a presidential race is the economy. To that end, said old guy coined the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid.” Fantasy baseball has its version of the economy. It’s called the standings.

In a roto league, we’ve reached the point in the season where the standings could have a perverse influence on the value of a player. If your team is raking on offense but is one closer from a gain of four points, it could be that Aroldis Chapman is worth much more to you than your Mike Trout.

Owners in auction leagues think in terms of dollars. Generally, we’d view Chapman as a $24 closer and Trout as a $58 outfielder. Tweak conditions enough, and Chapman could be a $70 closer. Trout could be a $10 outfielder. Yes, that’s an extreme example.

If you aren’t already doing so, it’s time to start managing your team by the standings rather than using the best overall product. This can heavily influence trade talks. We’re all conditioned to “win” trades. Understanding the standings can lead to some easy, useful trades.

When dealing with a fellow contender, you’ll need to make sure the points you offer to your opponent balance against what you’ll receive. At the very least, confirm the owner isn’t a threat to you. In keeper leagues, offer your keeper contracts for the players who help you the most rather than the biggest return.

Let’s say you could acquire Chapman or a package of Albert Pujols, Santiago Casilla, and Jay Bruce for one keeper. If the offensive players won’t influence your place in the standings, and you also have some room to gain in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, then Chapman is the better return. Casilla can match Chapman’s saves, but he won’t provide ratio help. Conversely, if offense is also a point of concern, then the second package is superior.

2. Daily DFS – Lester, McCullers

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: There are four games in the early set. I recommend picking an expensive pitcher like Corey Kluber, Francisco Liriano, Chris Archer, or Jon Lester. Lester has the best matchup, and he costs the least. Ervin Santana is a viable choice against Liriano and the Pirates. I’d avoid Justin Verlander, Jeremy Guthrie, and Eddie Butler.

The Rockies are quietly the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitching. With Troy Tulowitzki traded, that’s liable to get worse, not better. Lester has also pitched particularly well recently.

Late: Your options? Pay a billion dollars for Clayton Kershaw, settle for a mid-tier guy like John Lackey, or roll the dice on a Lance McCullers.

As the affordable option, McCullers offers as high of a ceiling as anybody else on the board. His elite curve ball produces consistently strong results. The Astros are carefully managing his workload. Six of his 12 outings have been five or fewer innings. In only one of those short appearances did McCullers allow more than two runs. The result is a risky DFS prospect.

Stack Targets: Guthrie, Verlander, Butler, Bartolo Colon, Rick Porcello, Colby Lewis, Doug Fister, Anthony DeSclafani, Chris Tillman, Mike Foltynewicz, Jerome Williams

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

A few elite names in today’s batch…

Buster Posey v Mike Fiers
Derek Dietrich v Doug Fister
Chris Carter v Garrett Richards
Jose Bautista v Jerome Williams
Wilmer Flores v Tyson Ross
Cameron Maybin, A.J. Pierzynski, and Freddie Freeman v Chris Tillman
Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Headley, and Didi Gregorius v Colby Lewis
Adam Lind and Ryan Braun v Jake Peavy

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Nelson, Buchanan, Adonis, Dyson

Pitchers to Start: Among major league starters, Jimmy Nelson has one of the best curve balls. That alone is not a reason to roster him, but it’s a good start. He also has decent velocity to go with otherwise fantasy average numbers. The ingredients for a breakout are present, he just hasn’t fit it all together. Perhaps you’ve heard about the Cubs issues with strikeouts. Nelson could have a studly performance or get hammered. Unfortunately, he’s opposed by Jake Arrieta.

Also consider: Jon Niese

Pitchers to Exploit: Since returning from the minors, David Buchanan has made two starts with tolerable results. Before his demotion, he made five godawful starts. I’m a believer in Buchanan as a 4.30 ERA pitcher. Without any nasty stuff, it will always be worthwhile to exploit him. The Braves make for a nice matchup for fantasy owners since so many of their players are on the waiver wire.

Also consider: Danny Duffy, Steven Wright, Jeff Locke, David Holmberg, Chris Rusin, Chris Bassitt

Hitters (power): Prospect watchers probably didn’t notice Adonis Garcia in the Braves system. I sure didn’t. The reason is age, he’s a 30-year-old without big power or speed. The Braves had him batting cleanup last night. You should still expect below league average production. If he continues to hit behind Freddie Freeman, he may be worth the occasional start.

Also consider: A.J. Pierzynski, Travis Snider, Danny Valencia, Marlon Byrd, Sean Rodriguez, Stephen Piscotty, Preston Tucker

Hitters (speed): Jarrod Dyson’s role will be reduced now that the Royals acquired Ben Zobrist. Assuming Zobrist takes more starts from Omar Infante than Dyson, he could still be a useful target. Just don’t be surprised if he’s on the bench.

Also consider: Jace Peterson, Anthony Gose, Kevin Pillar, Adam Eaton, Tyler Saladino, Shane Victorino

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

It should be dry leaguewide today. Home run conditions are nearly universally fantastic. Nowhere are they anything short of very good.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.