The Daily Grind: Keepers, Zimmermann, Gutierrez

Agenda

1. Keeper Anticipation
2. Daily DFS
3. GB / FB Splits
4. SaberSim Observations
5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Warren, Kendrick, Gutierrez, Tomlinson
6. Factor Grid

1. Keeper Anticipation

Every year, a few players see their value change dramatically over the offseason. Think about Carlos Carrasco. At the end of last season, most fantasy owners probably still thought of him as a fringe waiver guy. By the time draft day rolled around, he cost around $15 to $22.

There are many types of keeper formats. One popular variation allows an owner to keep as many players as they’d like at the cost of the previous draft price plus a penalty. This is how ottoneu operates, and I have two other long-standing Yahoo leagues that do the same (with a $7 penalty).

At this point in the season, anybody who looks like a keeper is gone from the waiver wire. If you’re trying to add one last stud, you may have to get creative. For example, Michael Brantley cost $17 in The Daily Grind Invitational – a mid-season draft. That’s probably around where he’d cost if we had a draft on October 5th. I bet an offseason talking about his production despite injury will push him well into the $20s by March. In short, you’re looking for players who may be hyped up from their current value.

I don’t have too many specific examples to plug. One that stands out is Victor Martinez. He was cut in both of my Yahoo keeper leagues. He’ll cost $16 to keep in one and $18 in the other. Entering the season, Martinez was a $25 first baseman. An offseason of analysis along with positive reports about his knee could return him to at least a $20 price tag. VMart’s 2014 campaign will probably go down in history as his Joe Mauer year, but it took a long time for people to jump off that bandwagon.

Do note, I’m not dead set on keeping Martinez. I’m going to see what clever analysts come up with over the offseason. Maybe they’ll convince me in one direction or another.

2. Daily DFS – Zimmermann, Eickhoff

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: The base running special between Gerrit Cole and Jon Lester is the lone early game.

Late: The aces of the day are a little less shiny than normal, but they’re still pricey and good. Jose Fernandez, Noah Syndergaard, Sonny Gray, Carlos Martinez, and Carlos Carrasco headline the pool. Of those, all but Gray have dealt with a recent injury or have some kind of innings constraint. I’m not paying for aces who won’t go more than six innings. As for Gray, he’s not been himself over the last month.

By price, Jordan Zimmermann is right there in the midst of the aces. In terms of stuff and expected results, I think of him as a second tier pitcher. However, when a guy like Zimmermann faces the Phillies, it’s time to jump on the bandwagon.

Don’t count your chickens too soon. Phillies hurler Jerad Eickhoff is a solid pitcher capable of tossing six or seven innings with a strikeout per frame. The Nationals demoralized roster might just roll over for him. For just $5,600 on FanDuel, you’re looking at a seven point floor and 15 point ceiling.

One alternative for a GPP is R.A. Dickey. The knuckleballer is always capable of tossing a complete game. That alone boosts his value. He’s opposed by a Rays offense that struggles with right-handed pitchers. For $100 less, you could bet on a Rich Hill three-peat. He’s posted two seven-inning, 10 strikeout performances since returning to the majors.

The internet isn’t sure if Wei-Yin Chen or Kevin Gausman is starting for the Orioles.

Stack Targets: David Hale, Casey Kelly, Matt Boyd, Ryan Weber, Ariel Pena, Vidal Nuno, Mike Bolsinger, Rubby de la Rosa, CC Sabathia

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Here are my favorites:

Ben Revere, Russell Martin v Jake Odorizzi
Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts v Wei-Yin Chen
Joc Pederson v David Hale
Franklin Gutierrez v Garrett Richards
Ben Paulsen, Justin Morneau v Mike Bolsinger
Josh Reddick, Marcus Semien v Mike Leake

4. SaberSim Observations

A little under half of the day’s games are missing from SaberSim today. Based on what is posted, SaberSim agrees with my Zimmermann pick but doesn’t feel kindly about Eickhoff. It projects fewer than six innings with just a 23 percent chance at a victory. Those are the lowest victory odds I’ve noted.

The system really likes Blue Jays bats against Jake Odorizzi. While he certainly could have a bad day against Toronto’s juggernaut, I’m not convinced that he absolutely will struggle. As such, maybe you shouldn’t go out of your way to stack Blue Jays. If you decide to trust SaberSim over me, you’ll probably need Eickhoff. Remember, SaberSim doesn’t like him.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets – Warren, Kendrick, Gutierrez, Tomlinson

Pitchers to Start: Adam Warren is a risky play against the White Sox. He’s failed to work past the fourth inning since returning to the rotation (two starts). If he does hang on longer tomorrow, there’s a good chance he’ll earn a victory. He’s best picked by somebody in desperate need of wins.

Also consider: Aaron Nola, Josh Tomlin, Kris Medlen

Pitchers to Exploit: I know Kyle Kendrick wasn’t very popular last offseason, but I’m not sure why he thought it was a good idea to sign with the Rockies. Nor do I understand why the Rockies thought Kendrick would survive Coors Field. Sinker specialists usually bomb. The Dodgers have several freely available players who should mash Kendrick tomorrow.

Also consider: John Danks, Barry Zito, John Lamb, Alfredo Simon, Justin Nicolino, Tyler Wagner, Brett Anderson, Robbie Erlin

Hitters (power): Franklin Gutierrez’s power stroke is locked in. He’s popped 15 home runs in 168 plate appearances. He’s pulling a Ryan Raburn. Be careful buying in for 2016. He’ll face southpaw Andrew Heaney and the Angels’ (mostly) soft-tossing bullpen tomorrow.

Also consider: Yasmany Tomas, Welington Castillo, Andre Ethier, Joc Pederson, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Yasmani Grandal, Wilin Rosario, Dustin Garneau, Stephen Piscotty, Eddie Rosario, Juan Uribe, Marlon Byrd, Chris Young, Chase Headley,

Hitters (speed): Kelby Tomlinson should be able to reach base against Zito. However, I seem to recall Zito possesses a solid pickoff move. Or maybe I’m confused. I haven’t scouted Tomlinson enough to know if he’d run against a lefty.

Also consider: Aaron Hicks, Javier Baez, Will Venable

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

If any games were scheduled outside of my apartment, they’d be rained out. Luckily, the stadiums of baseball land are dry.

The Link.

This post is about fantasy baseball.