- Final Deadline Deals
- Daily DFS – Ross, Nola
- GB / FB Splits
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Garcia, Flande, Lamb, Holt
- Factor Grid
1. Final Deadline Deals
There were many deadline deals, but let’s try to focus on the fantasy impact of the most important ones.
Yeonis Cespedes to the Mets is probably the highest profile swap of the day. Cespedes will trade his role at the heart of the Tigers lineup for a similar spot with the Mets. Unfortunately, it’s a downgrade in terms of expected run production and power. CitiField is still rough on right-handed hitters. Overall, expect about 10 percent fewer home runs and RBI than you would have in Detroit.
I’m thrilled about Gerardo Parra’s arrival in Baltimore. While Miller Park and the Brewers lineup were both healthy homes for Parra, hitting between Manny Machado and Adam Jones should only help his production. Camden Yards is the third best stadium for left-handed power (although it’s not that much better than Miller Park). We should continue to expect regression in his .372 BABIP. He may retain the power improvements.
With Ben Revere traded to the Blue Jays, there are a wide range of possible outcomes. If he’s batting leadoff, Revere could score over 50 runs through the rest of the season. We should expect his stolen base rate to drop sharply – it’s foolish to risk outs on the bases with that lineup. There is a very real chance that Revere either bats at the bottom of the order or shifts into playing less than 75 percent of the time. In either event, his value takes a sharp plunge.
J.A. Happ to Pittsburgh is a modest upgrade in stadium and situation. He’s still a stream start in 12 team mixed leagues. The same is true of Dan Haren. The downgrade in stadium is mostly offset by an upgrade in supporting cast. The Cubs have really struggled to keep a rotation together. It’s a big reason why they’re behind in the Wild Card race. Mark Lowe could see some saves in Toronto if Roberto Osuna contracts relief hiccups.
2. Daily DFS – Ross, Nola
Early: Clayton Kershaw: Take Three. The tiny three game group includes Kershaw with Andrew Heaney opposite the Dodgers. Your other choices – Yordano Ventura, Mark Buehrle, Joe Kelly, and Matt Moore all have problems. The Boston versus Tampa game should be very high scoring. I’m setting my personal O/U at 10.5 runs. If Kershaw is scratched again, Heaney is the obvious choice. Even if he isn’t, Heaney costs nearly $6,000 less than Kershaw on FanDuel. Unlike Wednesday, there aren’t enough games to build a potent bargain group.
If you want to avoid Los Angeles, I recommend Buehrle. He’s a high floor, low ceiling pick.
Late: Aces with questionable match ups. That’s the theme of the 12 game main contest. Jacob deGrom draws the Nationals, Gerrit Cole is at Great American Ball Park, Dallas Keuchel will face a sneaky good Diamondbacks lineup, and Cole Hamels is opposed by the Giants. They all cost over $10,000 on FanDuel.
A couple rookies make for the best plays tonight. Joe Ross has the pleasure of pitching to a modestly upgraded Mets offense. There’s no need to worry about New York’s incremental improvements. The bigger concern is the status of Lucas Duda. He’s shown a recent power outburst. Is he finally healthy again? In any event, Ross is a cost effective bet. If he works his way into early trouble, don’t be surprised when he’s pulled. It’s probably his last start unless Doug Fister is bumped from the rotation.
Aaron Nola is even cheaper. He’s opposed by Matt Wisler and the Braves. The Atlanta lineup features very little thump. Nola’s early career troubles have come solely via the long ball. Otherwise, we’re looking at a pitcher with a solid strikeout, walk, and ground ball rate. The combination should result in a reliable DFS play.
3. GB / FB Splits
The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.
It’s not the best day for this particular split. Still, there are a few plays to be made.
Kevin Kiermaier v Joe Kelly
Logan Morrison and Robinson Cano (if healthy) v Kyle Gibson
Billy Hamilton, Todd Frazier, and Brandon Phillips v Gerrit Cole
Derek Dietrich v Odrisamer Despaigne
Prince Fielder v Mike Leake
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Garcia, Flande, Lamb, Holt
Pitchers to Start: The Rockies are now the worst team against left-handed pitching by wRC+. Guess what, Jaime Garcia is a left-handed pitcher, and the game is NOT Coors Field. The oft-injured Garcia isn’t inducing as many whiffs as past seasons, but the matchup is still highly desirable. His ground ball rate is currently a career best 67.8 percent. He’s averaged close to seven innings per start.
Also consider: Robbie Ray, Nick Tropeano
Pitchers to Exploit: There is a second reason to stream Garcia, he’s opposed by Yohan Flande. The Rockies hurler is a poor man’s version of Garcia. He has a 62.3 percent ground ball rate with 5.73 K/9 and 2.86 BB/9 – mostly out of relief. He probably won’t last deep into the game even if he pitches well. The Rockies bullpen is terrible. It should be an easy win for St. Louis.
Hitters (power): Jake Lamb plays every day for the Diamondbacks at third base. His hot start to the season was short circuited by an injury. He’s been merely adequate since his return. Over the last week, he’s shown some signs of finding his power stroke. He’s opposed by homer prone starter Collin McHugh. Lamb has less raw power than some of the options below, but he’s one of the best free plays for home runs.
Hitters (speed): Brock Holt bats leadoff for the Red Sox. He’s 32 percent owned on Yahoo, a legacy of his super utility role. Holt’s a classic Red Sox grinder. A more aggressive approach could lead to a .310 average, but his current passive style increases his strikeout rate (20.5 K% despite just 5.9% SwStr%). The spray hitter features a high line drive rate.
Both Eaton and Saladino are better bets for a stolen base, but I wrote about both of them recently.
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Conditions are very similar to yesterday. The Twins are a late game storm risk.
This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam