The Daily Grind: Estrada, DeSclafani, Wright

Agenda

1. Moving Along
2. Daily DFS – Astros vs. Estrada
3. GB / FB Splits
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – DeSclafani, Wright, Napoli, Inciarte
5. Factor Grid

1. Moving Along

I’m way behind schedule today. Here are some quick strikeout facts in bullet form.

• The Cubs and Astros have 25 percent strikeout rates
• The Royals have a tiny 14 percent strikeout rate
• The Pirates are actually the worst team again left-handed pitchers with a 28 percent strikeout rate
• Strangely, the Buccos have a 19.6 percent punch out rate against righties…Regression?
• Colby Rasmus, Chris Davis, Mike Zunino, Chris Carter, and Steven Souza all strike out over 35 percent of the time
• Michael Brantley is the only hitter with a strikeout rate below five percent

Moving along…

2. Daily DFS – Astros vs. Estrada

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: Thanks to their retractable roof, Miami is the only park with a safe forecast. I might take a pass on this particular contest. I’m not comfortable with Alex Wood or Mat Latos.

Late: The Astros stack is once again in the high risk, high reward bucket. It’s headlined by George Springer. He has a 1.172 OPS against fly ball pitchers like Marco Estrada. If you happen to wander past Estrada’s player page, the first things you might notice are his 3.54 ERA and healthy 13 percent whiff rate. Strong whiff rates are why he’s long been viewed as a breakout candidate. You’ll probably also notice a 16.7 percent HR/FB ratio. As a result, he has a 5.12 FIP.

Let’s recap. The Astros strikeout a lot, but they have a lot of power. Estrada has strong whiff rates this season, but he allows more than his share of home runs. Both sides of the matchup are high risk, high reward. I’d bet on the hitters. Minute Maid Park has a roof, so no rain outs here.

Stack Targets: Alex Colome, Trevor May, Tyler Lyons, Matt Shoemaker, Jerome Williams, CC Sabathia, Danny Duffy, Ryan Vogelsong, Scott Feldman, John Danks, Rick Porcello, Jorge de la Rosa

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Jeff has drummed up 40 players today. Below are those I like the most in no particular order.

George Springer, Jake Marisnick, Hank Conger, Evan Gattis, Robbie Grossman vs. Marco Estrada
Mitch Moreland, Shin-Soo Choo, and Carlos Corporan vs. Danny Salazar
Logan Morrison and Robinson Cano vs. Rick Porcello
Carlos Santana vs. Colby Lewis
Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Chase Headley vs. Danny Duffy
Asdrubal Cabrera, David DeJesus, and James Loney vs. Trevor May

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – DeSclafani, Wright, Napoli, Inciarte

Pitchers to Start: Anthony DeSclafani’s ownership has slowly declined. His last three starts have included 12 walks in 16 innings. His 2.79 ERA looks tasty when matched against a mediocre Giants offense. Alas, ERA estimators aren’t enamored. He has a 3.91 FIP and 4.54 xFIP. He’s shown excellent command and control in the past. There’s reason to hope for fewer walks going forward.

Also consider: Umm…Chris Capuano? Mike Bolsinger?

Pitchers to Exploit: Steven Wright isn’t the worst pitcher tomorrow, but he’s the most interesting among the exploit crowd. The 30-year-old knuckleballer has had solid success in the minors. Unfortunately, he hasn’t had many opportunities to stick in the major league rotation. He’s had two five inning relief appearances this season, but tomorrow will be his first start. With the shaky state of the Boston rotation, he could snag a job. All he needs to do is maintain a consistent 4.50 ERA to be of use. It’s what Tim Wakefield did most seasons.

It’s safe to say we’re all rooting for him.

Also consider: Tom Koehler, Bud Norris, Sean O’Sullivan, Mark Buehrle, James Paxton, Kyle Kendrick

Hitters (power): We discussed Mike Napoli the other day. I’m still hopefully he’ll return to his previous level of production. The Boston offense as a whole has been much weaker than expected.

Also consider: Justin Turner, Seth Smith, James Loney, David Peralta, Matt Joyce

Hitters (speed): Ender Inciarte will probably leadoff against O’Sullivan. Inciarte is a typical high contact, low power player. You just want him to put balls in play.

Also consider: David DeJesus, Odubel Herrera, Jace Peterson, Juan Lagares

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

Day of storms. Nine of 15 games could be interrupted by lightning and rain.

The Link.

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