Roto Riteup: May 16, 2015
The Roto Riteup aims to educate, so did you know that like fingerprints, everyone’s toungeprint is unique? Please be sure not to lick anything during your next criminal activity.
On today’s agenda:
1. Doug Fister to the DL
2. Welcome to the bigs: Lance McCullers, Jr.
2. Various news and notes
3. Streaming Pitcher Options
Doug Fister to the DL
Doug Fister is headed to the DL with forearm tightness — an ailment that can indicate future Tommy John surgery. There’s some speculation that this is nothing, simply a strain caused by sitting during a rain delay and being asked to come back out pitch cold, but I’m not so dismissive.
A.J. Cole has been recalled to take Fister’s place in the Nationals rotation, which is sort of strange considering Tanner Roark is in the bullpen, but Roark has been — how do I say this — not awesome as a reliever this year; his walk rate has increased and his strikeout rate has been cut in half. Though it’s way too early to say, perhaps this is an indication that Cole is a larger part of the Nationals’ future plans than Roark. Intrigue!
Welcome to the bigs: Lance McCullers, Jr.
After striking out over 37% of the batters he faced in Double-A, McCullers is getting his chance to fan big leaguers come Monday against the A’s. McCullers was called up to Triple-A on Thursday and he barely had time to throw a bullpen session before getting his call to the bigs.
McCullers sits in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball and pairs it with a legitimately nasty curveball according to FanGraphs’ own Kiley McDaniel, but his command has never been a strong suit, and his changeup isn’t really a weapon as a third pitch. McCullers will certainly be fun to watch, but expect too many walks to keep his WHIP in acceptable fantasy range. With the Astros in first place, they’re not going to keep him in the majors for long if he struggles, especially considering he never made a single start in Triple-A.
Various news and notes
– RotoGraphs favorite Shane Greene was pulled from yesterday’s start against with a nerve issue in his throwing elbow, which doesn’t sound good. Greene will be reevaluated today, and there’s a chance his removal was mostly precautionary — that’s the hope, at least.
– Brandon Belt finally got himself a homer yesterday! Belt’s hitting .291 on the year now, but a .408 BABIP is no bueno.
– Bud Norris will miss his start today thanks to a bout with bronchitis, and Ubaldo Jimenez will move up and start instead. Chris Tillman is tentatively moving up to Sunday, though Norris will likely slot in once he’s feeling up to it.
– Yan Gomes is on his way back to the big leagues, playing three innings of catcher last night for the Indians Single-A affiliate. Gomes is coming off an MCL sprain in his right knee, so easing his way back into a role behind the plate will take more time than a typical rehab assignment, but there’s reason to believe he’ll be back in the majors some time next week.
Streaming Pitcher Options
If you enjoy streaming pitchers, tune into the Roto Riteup for recommendations each and every day.
A pitcher for today: Archie Bradley at PHI (Jerome Williams)
Bradley returns from the DL to face a lineup that is not so good at the hitting.
A pitcher for tomorrow: Tom Koehler vs ATL (Shelby Miller)
It’s entirely possible, and probably even likely, that Miller out-pitches our friend Tom Koehler, but his team isn’t likely to give him the same run support that Miami’s lineup can muster.
Zach is the creator and co-author of RotoGraphs' Roto Riteup series, and RotoGraphs' second-longest tenured writer. You can follow him on twitter.
So I’m in a bit of a good pickle with Hunter Pence coming back. Basically I need to move an OF to make room for Pence off my DL and my most expendable parts have turned out to be Christian Yelich and Gregory Polanco. Between Yelich and Polanco, who should I be looking to move? They profile as similar players, 10 HR pop and 20+ steals, but Yelich is off a rough start even after coming back from the back injury. Then again, Polanco has basically become a platoon player with Corey Hart, sitting against lefties.
can you move an IF type? If I had to choose, probably Yelich.
I don’t really have a movable IF right now, I could try and move Kyle Seager, but right now it feels like I would have to sell incredibly low on him. I could move on from a SP, my most “droppable” pieces being Snydergaard, Phil Hughes, Alex Wood or Ian Kennedy. Wood, Hughes and Kennedy have all been pretty inconsistent so far, so I’m not sure what kind of return I could get for them. I would hate to move on from Snydergaard, if he can lock down a rotation spot and keep his command in check, his stuff is special.
Alex Wood and Hughes don’t belong in the same discussion
You sure? I don’t have a share of either, but they seem to be at least in the same discussion as each other.
Steamer ROS projections:
Wood: 128 K’s, 3.59 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8 Wins (if your league uses that)
Hughes: 120 K’s, 3.93 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 9 Wins
I just saw this:
Henderson Alvarez (shoulder) to start for Marlins on Sunday.
He has been sidelined since mid-April due to right shoulder inflammation. While it has yet to be confirmed, it sounds as though Tom Koehler will be shifted to the bullpen to make room in the Marlins rotation.
Source: Clark Spencer on TwitterMay 16 – 12:27 PM
and Koehler came in for (long) relief today.
Why is a .408 BABIP “no bueno”? Would you prefer if he was getting less hits?
Presumably, the implication is that he will not maintain a .408 BABIP from this point forward, and thus will struggle to keep his BA in the .290 range unless other demonstrated skills improve.
If only there was a metric or set of metrics we could look to that may explain why his BABIP is as high as it is…oh well, maybe one day.
I’m sure if you wanted to research further and submit an article, Fangraphs would be interested.
As it is, I can’t take fault with a writer making the assumption that a .408 BABIP probably isn’t sustainable in the context of a short daily fantasy baseball report.
Even if there is a change in approach at the plate where Belt is working at getting more hits, until he starts to hit for more power he just isnt that sexy of a Fantasy First Base option. I think the power should start to come, but he seems to be hitting more line drives and ground balls and hitting less fly balls this year.
Honestly, Belt reminds me a lot of Eric Hosmer last year, where the Batting Average was decent to good at times, but the power numbers were virtually non-existent and that sucks a lot of his fantasy value away. Unless of course you have someone like Hanley as your fantasy SS where you can make up for that lost power at a position usually not associated with it.
Good comparison. Belt has shown a bit of the conscious trade-off — seems like so far he can hit .300+ with meh power, or trade 30 or 40 points of BA for some home runs, but might not have the skills to maintain .300+ with 25+ HR’s.
Is dee Gordon Wacha and gregerson too much to trade for Kershaw?
Without a lot more information, that sounds fair or an underpay. I’d rather be the guy getting Kershaw, but it wouldn’t get vetoed.
5×5 h2h 14teamer
Don’t have a 2b replacement, waivers is slim
Best guys are flores Herrera Peterson owning
Current sps degrom wacha syndergaard wood Keuchel Heston
get kershaw. gordon is babip’ing himself to sell high status and wachas shoulder is ground round.
Zach, do you like Tanaka or Matt Moore over Archie Bradley rest of the season in a 12 team mixed roto?
I’m not a big Bradley fan, at least this year. I think as he develops his breaking pitches, he should become a more solid fantasy option, but right now I think he is an inconsistent streaming option and little else in standard mixed leagues.
I would rank them Tanaka/Moore/Bradley. Moore is worth a stash if you have an open DL spot, just pay attention to how his control is during his rehab stint. He was far from an efficient pitcher before he needed TJ and that is something tons of pitchers struggle with while coming back. He could come back and be the same Matt Moore who was a solid, if frustrating fantasy option or he could have terrible control and kill your WHiP.
Tanaka is worth owning as long as he can stay on the mound. I have no idea how long that will be and if you own him, I would wait for him to come back and hopefully pitch well in a start or two and sell quickly on him. The rash of arm injuries is scary, but if there is one silver lining it is the fact he was pitching well prior to going down with this forearm strain.
For me, it’s super close between Moore and Tanaka with Bradley a distant, distant third.
Thanks, Mike!