The Daily Grind: Eaton, Buehrle, Cravy

Agenda

  1. Eaton Revisited
  2. Daily DFS – ERod, Buehrle
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Latos, Cravy, DeJesus, Murphy, Burns
  5. Factor Grid

1. Eaton Revisited

For awhile, White Sox outfielder Adam Eaton was a regular guest of this column. Then fantasy owners finally caught on to his success, and he was no longer eligible for mention. He’s getting the job done with increased power and a high OBP. Since the end of his early season slump, he’s produced at nearly the same rate as Lorenzo Cain. With his power friendly home park, he now looks like a 15 to 20 home run threat.

Eno Sarris and Jeff Sullivan decided it was high time to diagnose the cause of Eaton’s power surge. In a pair of articles, both of my colleagues found a sharp decrease in ground ball rate has led to the spike in home runs and extra base hits.

Usually, ground ball rates only decrease dramatically if a change has been made to the player’s swing. Lo and behold, there is further statistical evidence that such as change has occurred. Eaton’s swinging strike rate has increased from a hair under five percent to seven percent. It’s barely enough to affect his strikeout rate, but it looks like the classic trade of contact for power.

His plate discipline numbers all look consistent with his career norms – except for one. His contact rate inside the strike zone has decreased from 96 percent to 88 percent. That’s still above league average so it’s hardly cause for concern. In fact, I take it as a sign that he’s seeking to hit more pitches with authority.

Overall, I’m buying Eaton in keeper formats. In my home league, I snagged a $12 to keep Eaton from a rival, cut him, then later picked him back up. Until recently, I figured he was an automatic offseason cut. Now I’m thinking I might take the plunge for $12. He looks like a strong four category contributor with a 20/20 ceiling.

2. Daily DFS – ERod, Buehrle

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: It’s a weird five game slate with four west coast games and Miami. James Shields is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel at $8,900. He has a solid matchup with Cincinnati. I’d be hesitant to go with a riskier choice, but you do have a few options.

Eduardo Rodriguez generally pitches well or it’s a disaster. His Jekyll and Hyde act includes nine starts in which he’s allowed nine runs over 58.1 innings and four starts with 25 runs in 15 innings. The Marlins make for a nice matchup for the lefty.

If not Shields or ERod, then you’ll want to pick the winner of the Chase Anderson versus Aaron Nola game. Anderson pitched very well in his return to the majors last week, and he’s opposed by one of the worst offenses in baseball. The Phillies much-vaunted hot streak has suddenly turned icy. Nola has looked like a fantasy gem since his debut, but the club isn’t letting him pitch deep into his starts.

Late: The main contest features 10 games and Clayton Kershaw. You can also opt for less expensive aces like Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole.

Mark Buehrle offers an alternative to acedom. The Blue Jays lefty has average nearly 7.1 innings over his last 15 starts. He began the season with a nagging injury so I’m willing to dismiss those early starts. He isn’t likely to help with strikeouts, but sometimes he’ll pile up as many as six Ks. He’s a big favorite over A’s starter Aaron Brooks. You’re aiming for about 14 points from Buehrle.

Stack Targets: Raisel Iglesias, Scott Feldman, Adam Conley, CC Sabathia, Jorge de la Rosa, Matt Wisler, Matt Garza, John Danks, Daniel Norris, Mike Pelfrey

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

Only 21 names today, but we have some good ones to highlight:

Nick Castellanos v Edinson Volquez
Nolan Reimold, Matt Wieters, and JJ Hardy v Hisashi Iwakuma
Wilmer Flores v Jorge de la Rosa
Ryan Howard and Cesar Hernandez v Chase Anderson
Garrett Jones, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Headley, and Didi Gregorius v Danny Salzar
Cameron Maybin, Freddie Freeman, Michael Bourn, and A.J. Pierzynski v Jake Odorizzi

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Latos, Cravy, DeJesus, Murphy, Burns

Pitchers to Start: I won’t be using Mat Latos tomorrow, but he’s the closest thing to a startable pitcher I see on the wire. Since joining the Dodgers, Latos has forgotten how to strike out opponents. Maybe he’ll rediscover his out pitches tomorrow. Let somebody else roll the dice.

Also consider: Don’t

Pitchers to Exploit: There may not be pitchers to start, but there are plenty of exploits. In additon to the other names listed, the Rangers have replaced Cole Hamels (groin) with TBA.

Brewers starter Tyler Cravy doesn’t pass my smell test. I think he’s a swingman. None of his pitches are weapons, but he does have a solid four pitch mix. Against the Cubs, you want to target pitchers with high-whiff pitches. Since Cravy lacks those, he’s liable to get hammered. The Chicago offense has been cold against right-handed pitchers so maybe he’ll survive.

Also consider: Eddie Butler, Ervin Santana, Nathan Eovaldi, Jeremy Guthrie, Keyvius Sampson, Ryan Vogelsong

Hitters (power): Guthrie may be the worst pitcher in the majors against left-handed hitters. This is good news for at least one of David DeJesus and David Murphy. The pair of trade deadline acquisitions aren’t really home run threats at Kauffman Stadium, but they could offer a couple doubles. Watch out for the Royals ridiculous bullpen.

Also consider: Andre Ethier, Khris Davis, Chris Coghlan, Eddie Rosario, Aaron Hicks, Kelly Johnson

Hitters (speed): Burn Billy Burns. The Athletics speed man has cooled down considerably. As a result, his ownership has dropped below 50 percent on Yahoo. Since July 1, he’s hitting a meager .262/.312/.308 with seven steals in nine attempts. Luckily, he hasn’t been ousted as the A’s leadoff man. He has two hits in three of his last four games. He’ll need to solve RA Dickey’s knuckler tomorrow.

Also consider: ???

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

No weather today. Most of the stadiums still skew in favor of the pitcher.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





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jevant
8 years ago

Dickey is starting today instead of Buerhle.

jevant
8 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

Bluejays.com is reporting it, good enough for me. 🙂