The Daily Grind: Dynasty, Chavez, Young
Agenda
- I’m Back!
- Dynasty Observations Pt 1
- Daily DFS – Chavez
- Tomorrow’s Targets – Young, Alvarez, Davis, Guyer
- Factor Grid
1. I’m Back!
I’m back in action after two days lost to illness and another where I fudged my way through the column in a fugue state. It’s possible that I’ve failed to notice some important detail that could otherwise influence today’s column. Please bear with me while I get back on track.
2. Dynasty Observations Pt 1
This is my first season participating in what I consider to be a true dynasty league. We have 20 teams, 45-man rosters, weekly lineups, and the freedom to build any way we like. One roster doesn’t even have any major leaguers. I’m partnered with Chad Young. Eno Sarris owns a separate team in the league.
I’ve noticed a few quirks about this format. Two positions, catcher and closer, play similarly to a standard 12-team mixed league. Although we use four outfielders, CI, MI, and two UTIL, we only have one catcher spot. Catchers on the wire include A.J. Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz, and Robinson Chirinos. The best available catchers in my two-C home league are Francisco Cervelli, James McCann, and J.T. Realmuto. They’re qualitatively similar options.
To put this in perspective, the best available outfielders are Shane Robinson, Danny Valencia, and Jeff Francouer. Usually, we refer to catcher as a scarce position. In this particular league, it’s no more scarce than any other position. It’s certainly less scarce than skills based positions like shortstop or second base. We happen to be in good shape with Russell Martin. If we owned a guy like Jason Castro, I wouldn’t go out of my way to keep him.
Chad and I are attempting to walk a fine line between contention and rebuilding. We entered the season with just enough players to fill out a starting lineup. We’ve been fortunate with injuries – our only major losses have been Jed Lowrie and Drew Pomeranz. Tomorrow (assuming a more pressing topic doesn’t materialize), I’ll discuss the details of our pseudo-rebuild.
3. Daily DFS – Chavez
Early: Six games are early. We have some very interesting matchups available. There is a Clayton Kershaw–Madison Bumgarner rematch – the third of the season if memory serves. It will probably be the lowest scoring game of the day. Jaime Garcia will make his 2015 debut in New York against Jake deGrom. That should be a fun one. Philadelphia remains at Coors Field for one more showdown. It’s Jerome Williams versus Jorge de la Rosa. It should be a high scoring affair, just be aware that everyone will have Rockies in their GPP lineups.
Late: And six games are late. The contest is jammed with sloppy starters. If you prefer to avoid a high risk, high reward pick like Danny Salazar at U.S. Cellular Field, then give Jesse Chavez a look. His stuff is marginally better than last season, he’s facing a weak lineup, and he’ll throw at pitcher friendly Tropicana Field. He’s opposed by Alex Colome.
Stack Targets: Odrisamer Despaigne, Kyle Hendricks, John Danks, Colome, Matt Garza, Matt Shoemaker, Williams, de la Rosa, Scott Feldman, Chris Tillman, Mat Latos, Archie Bradley
4. Tomorrow’s Targets – Young, Alvarez, Davis, Guyer
Pitchers to Start: I don’t feel great about recommending Chris Young against the St. Louis Cardinals. He’s a soft-tossing, extreme fly ball pitcher, and he’ll throw in a park that is very forgiving to that profile. The Royals outfield is fantastic at running down fly balls, hence his crazy .132 BABIP. More hits will fall in, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he finished the year with a .200 BABIP.
I feel even worse about recommending Wily Peralta. He’s the only other guy under 50 percent owned who is even marginally acceptable.
Also consider: Peralta
Pitchers to Exploit: Henderson Alvarez’s velocity is down three mph this season. His command and control remains superb, but he’s not fooling anybody (5.6% SwStr, 9.1% K%). The righty will have a difficult time surviving the Orioles lineup.
Also consider: Sean O’Sullivan, Marco Estrada, Ryan Vogelsong, Kyle Kendrick, Josh Collmenter
Hitters (power): Khris Davis has the platoon advantage against Alex Wood. The Braves hurler has been somewhat shaky this season with a career low whiff rate. The Brewers have a potent stack of righties to send against him. Davis is the best among those on the wire.
Also consider: Yasmany Tomas, A.J. Pierzynski, Justin Bour, Danny Espinosa
Hitters (speed): Brandon Guyer has earned plenty of action this season, and he usually starts against lefties. Scott Kazmir is by no means an exploitable target, but Guyer has adequate speed, power, and contact ability. He’s working towards becoming a sneaky every day guy in sufficiently deep fantasy leagues.
Also consider: Nori Aoki, Angel Pagan, Adam Eaton, Jace Peterson, Alejandro De Aza
5. The Factor Grid
The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.
Baltimore is the only location that concerns me this evening. A couple other spots have a 20 percent chance of rain, but that usually amounts to nothing. Without having done the math, I’d estimate that a 20 percent chance for rain results in a delay less than one percent of the time.
This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
Hey welcome back!
I don’t think I had any anxiety over the lack of this column for the last few days…. maybe some slight nervousness. It’s cool though.
Daily late-game stack targets: Everyone! So should I start combing through bullpen names in hopes that someone jumps in, eats up 3 innings or so and snags a win an a 13-8 affair?
I suppose if you wanted to try picking both Kershaw and Bumgarner for the early games, you’d be hard pressed to fill out the rest of your lineup, but that might not matter in a 50/50.
No mention of Buccholz vs Texas?
He’s a tweener imo. I’m neither targeting him nor eager to start him.
Hey Brad, I’m in a similarly deep (not quite as deep though) 20-teamer, weighing dropping the perennial disappointment Ackley to add newly called up Ceciliani. Would you say he’s got more ceiling?
I know almost nothing about Ceciliani, nor do I think there is much opportunity for playing time. However, with Ackley’s inability to show any sort of consistency, I might give it a shot. At least two sources believe that Ackley tinkers by nature. He’ll never settle in as a result. He certainly seems to need a change of scenery.
Given the early start time and the already-fucked Baltimore schedule (due to losing the riot games) do you think they’ll try extra hard to get this game in? Getaway day but rain is supposed to stop around 6PM. Would they wait around to finish the game if it rains all afternoon?
I think the game will happen, just don’t invest in either starting pitcher for DFS. The report makes it look like one of those stop and start type games. The bad weather is well to the south, so they might even play through the rain uninterrupted.
If the game goes, the RH Baltimore hitters are at relatively appealing prices (on DK at least). Bad weather for hitting, but the premium stacks (DET, PHI @ coors, COL) are unaffordable if you want one of the elite pitchers in the early slate. Gonna keep an eye on the weather and go with that in early GPP I think.
True. FanDuel is much less responsive to matchup with their pricing. In my opinion, that better rewards owner knowledge. I really dislike how DraftKings can ruin solid matchups with their price model. It introduces more luck into the equation.
Brad, welcome back….my coffee and mornings haven’t been the same the past 2 mornings – your column has become my start to the day…keep up the great work.
How deep is your dynasty league? In my two 20 team keeper leagues the best available C is Robinson Chirinos and we only use one C spot. Needless to say, if your C gets hurt in these leagues and you don’t already have a backup, it’s really slim pickings.
To be fair, Chirinos has been something like a top 14 catcher so far, so it’s not like you’re killing yourself with him.
But that sub-mendoza batting average, blech! Makes me glad I snagged Hundley before the season started.