The Daily Grind: DFS, Streaming, and More for September 28

Agenda

  1. Tomorrow is Go
  2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard
  3. Daily DFS
  4. SaberSim Observations
  5. Tomorrow’s Targets
  6. Factor Grid

1. Tomorrow is Go

I hope you’re ready to trigger your innings exploits because tomorrow is the day to do it. In the MLBTR league, I was able to grab nine quality pitchers of which Ariel Miranda is the worst. This is my hail mary pass in that league. If all nine pitchers spike – i.e. six wins with a sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP – I could potentially gain 16 points and win the league. It would make for a heroic and epic comeback.

Unfortunately, I’m not quite in position to fully maximize the exploit. After today’s pitchers go, I’ll still have roughly 25 innings to the cap. However, the opportunity tomorrow is too ripe. Unless my pitchers completely flop today, I’ll just have to accept going four starts over the cap instead of eight.

If you’re in a similar position to me, pick up the pitchers then decide what to do later. Even if I do ultimately trigger the exploit on another day, I’ll have blocked my rivals from the best bulk day left on the calendar.

2. The Daily Grind Invitational and Leaderboard

Jaystellmach took home the gold with the help of Chris Coghlan and Eduardo Escobar. Congrats and the leaderboard is updated. Here is today’s contest. Only three more left!

3. Daily DFS 

Yesterday’s Grind

Early: I don’t know why the Mariners and Astros are playing at 2:10pm ET, but they are. No DFSing this one.

Late: With 14 games late, we have a wide range of choices. Jake Arrieta is the runaway ace of the slate, but he’s just making a tuneup start. I doubt he’ll throw more than six innings no matter how sharp he looks. Similarly, Cole Hamels versus the Brewers looks like a must-play on paper. In reality, the clinched Rangers probably won’t push him very hard.

Several veterans have the wherewithal to pitch deep into a start. Ervin Santana, Jeff Samardzija, Francisco Liriano, Chris Tillman, and Miguel Gonzalez catch my eye. They’re the most likely to pitch beyond six frames. Gonzalez is the sneaky play of the group. He’s cheap and not particularly good. However, Gonzalez also draws the best matchup of the bunch – the Rays.

Samardzija is probably the percentage play, but he’ll also be popular. The game is at AT&T park versus the Rockies. Shark has chewed through the Rockies lineup several times this season – even at Coors on a couple occasions.

Tempting youngsters include Michael Fulmer, Jose De Leon, Mike Foltynewicz, Jameson Taillon, Blake Snell, and Seth Lugo. Fulmer may have it semi-easy against an Indians hangover lineup. We’ll see how that shakes out. Folty and Lugo are the most likely to pitch beyond five innings. Folty draws the Phillies while Lugo is opposite the Marlins. The Braves have no reason to hold back with Foltynewicz unless his minor calf injury flares up. The Mets are auditioning Lugo for a postseason starter role. Everybody else is hurt.

Stack Targets: Zach McAllister, Bryan Mitchell, Alex Meyer, Jose Urena, Jason Vargas, Shelby Miller, Mike Leake, Clay Buchholz, Chase Anderson, Sonny Gray, Luis Perdomo, Gio Gonzalez, Anthony DeSclafani

4. SaberSim Observations

SaberSim is tripping balls today. De Leon is rated as the top pitcher with Foltynewicz, Arrieta, Liriano, and Hamels rounding out the top five. I have no qualms with the latter trio in some order, but the projections on De Leon and Folty are capturing the 80th percentile.

Blue Jays, Red Sox, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Rays, Braves, Rangers, and Astros make for the top stacks today.

5. Tomorrow’s Targets 

Pitchers to Start: So, I told you tomorrow is starter day. Check out this dope ass bling. Every one of them was available in at least one of my expert leagues. If your league is on top of things, Christian Friedrich could work for a spot start. The southpaw is indeed left-handed at throwing baseballs – a top KPI when choosing pitchers against the Dodgers.

Rob Zastryzny is also interesting in a super-deep scenario, but I’m not expecting him to pitch five innings.

Also consider: Daniel Norris, Robbie Ray, Joe Ross, Ivan Nova, Ubaldo Jimenez, Marcus Stroman, Jeremy Hellickson, Danny Duffy, Alex Reyes, Dan Straily, Chris Archer, Julio Urias, Ariel Miranda, Kendall Graveman, Jon Gray

Pitchers to Exploit: With so many can-use pitchers, there are very few must-exploit plays. Henry Owens was once a quality prospect. I even thought he could one day be a poor man’s Cole Hamels. His command took a big step backwards this year, calling his entire future into question. He’ll draw the Yanquis de Nueva York.

Also consider: Ryan MerrittKyle Gibson

Hitters (power): When Hunter Renfroe was summoned, I said something to the effect of “I don’t think he’ll succeed unless the scouting report is wrong.” Now I think the scouting report might be wrong. He’s homered thrice in just 18 plate appearances. He’s hardly even whiffed. Since we know there’s a lot of swing and miss in his game, his flaws will eventually be exposed. Until then, ride the power surge.

Also consider: Marcus Semien, Jake Smolinski, Seth Smith, Adam Lind, Enrique Hernandez, Michael Saunders, Josh Bell, David Freese, Chris Coghlan, Chris Young, Jayson Werth

Hitters (speed): It’s best to target desperate teams. They’re the ones still making things happen. For this reason, I’d go for Cameron Maybin versus Merritt. Maybin may be to a little hesitant to run ahead of the Detroit big boppers. If you need pure speed, Peraza or Dyson are better picks.

Also consider: Angel Pagan, Carlos Asuaje, Jose Peraza, Jarrod Dyson, Ender Inciarte, Jace Peterson, Cesar Hernandez, Rajai Davis

6. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The Nationals game is a serious postponement risk. Several others are questionable too.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

4 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Skoolboy Jim
7 years ago

Brad, am I tripping balls to throw Luis Perdoma in there against the lefty whiffing Dodgers? I could use a win, but can’t afford a blow up in ERA and WHIP. I was surprised he isn’t more recommended.